Folding at the River

There are many famous sayings regarding poker, such as, "Never draw to an inside straight," and so forth. One of my all-time favorites, which may not be so famous, was stated by a prominent Internet poster, and I strongly agree with it. He stated: "Making tough folds at the river is not the way to make money in limit hold'em." Indeed, one of the most expensive mistakes you can make is folding a hand on the end that would have won the pot had you called. Obviously, folding at the river is not a casual decision. Generally, you should call if you have any decent chance of winning, since the pot is often giving you 5-to-1, 10-to-1, or even better odds on your call. Nevertheless, it is frequently correct to fold at the river. Sometimes it is obvious that you must be beat based on the board and the previous betting action. When you are at the river, it can often be correct to fold for a bet when there are other opponents to act behind you. You should frequently fold in a heads-up situation against a very tight, predictable opponent who does not bluff-bet or bluff-raise on the end. There is also a difference between calling a river bet after you have checked vs. calling a bet to you. There is an even greater difference between calling a raise at the river after you have bet vs. simply calling a river bet. Perhaps the following hands will shed some light on this subject.

Since the hands were taken from live games, not all of the plays leading up to the problem in question are necessarily correct, but they are usually reasonable.

Hand No. 1 ($10-$20 game): You limp in from middle position behind two early-position players with the A 7. The cutoff calls. There is $55 in the pot and five players. The flop is Q Q 3, giving you a flush draw with an ace overcard. The big blind checks, the first early-position player bets, and the next player calls. You call, the cutoff folds, and the big blind calls. There is $95 in the pot and four players. The turn is the Q, putting trip queens on the table. Everyone checks. The river is the 10, giving you a flush. The blind and the first early-position player check. The second early-position player bets. What should you do?

Answer: Fold. Anyone with a pair has you beat. It is unlikely that a player would bet into three other players on the end with anything less than a full house. Let one of the other two players keep the bettor honest. Your nut flush is useless.

Hand No. 2 ($10-$20 game): You are in the cutoff seat with the 9 8. Four players limp in, you limp, and the small blind limps. There is $70 in the pot and seven players. The flop is 9 7 3, giving you top pair, weak kicker. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, and two players call to you. There is $100 in the pot and it costs you $10 to call, so your pot odds are 10-to-1. If someone has a bigger 9, you are playing three outs, which is a 15-to-1 shot. But no one may have a bigger 9. This flop has a two-flush with two cards connected, so your three opponents could be on draws. You also have some backdoor-straight possibilities. Raising might drive out only the small blind at this point, since you have three opponents already committed. You decide to just call, and the small blind calls. There is $120 in the pot and five players. The turn is the A. Everyone checks. The river is the A. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, and it is folded to you. What should you do?

Answer: Call. It is too easy for the bettor to have a busted draw. If not, he might have bet the turn with a made hand. There is $140 in the pot and it costs you $20, so you are getting 7-to-1 on your call. The small blind behind you who checked is a minor concern.

Hand No. 3 ($20-$40 game): You are in the cutoff with the A 9. An early-position player and a middle-position player limp in, you limp, the button raises, and only the limpers and you call. There is $190 in the pot and four players. The flop is A K 3, giving you top pair, shaky kicker, and a backdoor nut-flush draw. It is checked to you and you bet. Everyone calls. There is $270 in the pot. The turn is the 6, giving you the nut-flush draw to go along with your top pair. It is checked to you. You bet, the button raises, and the other players fold. You call. There is $430 in the pot and two players. The river is the 5. You check, and the button bets. What should you do?

Answer: Fold. It is obvious that the button has at least a bigger ace if not something more. He raised preflop after three players voluntarily entered the pot. He just called your flop bet. A flop containing both an ace and a king frequently helps a legitimate preflop raiser. His flop call is very suspicious. It means at least a good ace and usually something more. His raise on the expensive street when a blank came means he cannot have a lower pocket pair. You are clearly beat.

Hand No. 4 ($15-$30 game): You are in the big blind with the J 8. An early-position player and the cutoff limp in, so you take a free play. There is $55 in the pot and three players. The flop is J J 9, giving you trip jacks. You bet and both opponents call. There is $100 in the pot. The turn is the 7. You bet and both opponents call. There is $190 in the pot. The river is the 6. You check, the early-position player bets, and the cutoff folds. What should you do?

Answer: Call. You are probably beat by a made flush at the river, but with $220 in the pot, you have to catch a worse hand bluffing only about one time in seven to show a profit. There are numerous busted straight draws possible with Q-10, Q-8, K-Q, and so forth.

Hand No. 5 ($30-$60 game): You are in the small blind with the 9 8. A middle-position player opens with a raise, the button calls, you call, and the big blind folds. There is $210 in the pot and three players. The flop is A A 10, giving you a flush draw. You bet and both opponents call. There is $300 in the pot. The turn is the 6, giving you a gutshot-straight draw as well as your flush draw. You bet, the middle-position player raises, and the button cold-calls. You make a very dubious call. It seems like the middle-position player raised preflop with an ace in his hand. Since you figure his most likely ace would be A-K, A-Q, or A-J, you decide to call for another $60 with $600 in the pot. The problem is that the button is cold-calling, which means he could be on a bigger flush draw or have a big hand himself. There is $660 in the pot. The river is the 7, giving you a flush. You bet, the middle-position player raises, and the button folds. What should you do?

Answer: Fold. It is obvious that the middle-position player has a full house. You knew he probably had at least trip aces when he raised your turn bet with a third player in the hand. His raising a second time now at the river can only mean he is full, given the fact that the button was still in the hand and you were leading into him when the flush card came at the river. Given that you elected to bet the river, you should now fold.

Hand No. 6 ($15-$30 game): You are in middle position with the J 9. An early-position player and another middle-position player limp in. You limp in, as do the button and the small blind. There is $90 in the pot and six players in the hand. The flop is Q 7 3, missing you completely except for a backdoor-flush draw. Everyone checks. The turn is the J, giving you a pair. It is checked to you, and you bet. Only the other middle-position player in front of you calls. There is $150 in the pot and two players. The river is the 10. Your opponent bets. What should you do?

Answer: Call. What hand did your opponent make with the 10? Specifically, 9-8 or K-9 for a straight? It is doubtful that he has A-K because he limped in preflop. Could he have two pair? But Q-10, J-10, and Q-J seem unlikely given his lack of betting on the flop and turn. 10-7 or 10-3? This would be a bizarre hand-holding for him. There is enough doubt here to warrant checking his oil.

Hand No. 7 ($30-$60 game): You are in the big blind with the Q J. An early-position player opens with a raise and you are the only caller. There is $140 in the pot and two players. The flop is 10 8 4, giving you a gutshot-straight draw, a backdoor-flush draw, and two overcards. You check and call when your opponent bets. There is $200 in the pot. The turn is the 4, giving you a flush draw along with your other outs. You check and call when your opponent bets. There is $320 in the pot. The river is the 7, giving you a flush. You bet, and your opponent raises. What should you do?

Answer: Fold. While making big folds on the end can be expensive in limit poker, this is one time when folding is right. Your opponent raised from early position, so he rates to have a big pocket pair or two big cards headed by an ace. His raise here with four diamonds on the table at the river means he must have the A or at least the K, giving him a bigger flush than yours.

Editor's note: Jim Brier has co-authored a new book with Bob Ciaffone entitled Middle Limit Holdem Poker. It is available through Card Player.