The 'Odds of Losing' Relate Strongly to the 'Odds of Tilting'

I can usually tell how far along someone is in his poker studies by the information he includes in a question, or by the way he phrases it. The overwhelming majority of the time, when someone asks me if he played a certain hand correctly, I have to reply with a question requesting more information.

Usually, matters like your current table image (you might think you have a reputation as a tight player, but if you've been dealt pocket pairs the last four hands, flopped a set each time, and no one has called your last bet, people might think you're a raising maniac), your opponent's current image, the stakes (high, low, money or tournament; if tournament, before or after the rebuy period), the kind of game (loose, tight, passive, aggressive), the amount of money everyone had, who had position (if it was hold'em), what the earlier action was on the hand, what cards had been folded (if it was stud), and quite a few other points are necessary to render a useful judgment.

That's why so many answers start with "it depends." Unless the questioner knows enough to include all the variables in most questions, he can't get a good answer. Most of the time, when I supply the right questions, the questioner is able to figure out the right answer himself.

A Simple Question Leads to a

Not-So-Simple Answer

For example, recently someone wrote to me and said: "I have been running bad for the last few months and seem to get beat on the river more than usual. What are the stats on losing on the river vs. the turn or flop?"

I told my questioner that there are no "stats on losing on the river vs. the turn or flop," at least not any useful ones, because how often a player loses on the flop, turn, or river depends on a large number of variables, including but not limited to:

1. How often do opponents stay in until the end?

2. Does your playing style tend to encourage people to come in or discourage them from hanging? (In other words, do you build large pots, or do you check-raise or reraise in an effort to thin the field?)

3. What kinds of hands are you playing to the river? (In other words, if you play the 8 7, get a flop of 8 3 2, and a turn of the 6, not only is your "top pair" more vulnerable than someone playing K-Q who hits a king, but more players will stay in, thinking that if they hit their overcards, they will win.)

4. What stakes are you playing?

5. What kind of table image do you have?

I went on to explain that as a rough guide, an opponent has about a 2 percent winning chance for each "out" he has. For example, if you have A-K, and the board is A-K-8-5 and an opponent has two sevens, he has about a 4 percent chance to beat you on the river. It's actually about 4.5 percent - the exact percentage depends on suits - because the 2 percent rule of thumb is a bit low when you have only a few outs and a bit high when you have lots, but it's usually accurate enough for any quick calculations you need to make at the table.

Two Outs More Dangerous on the Turn

If that same opponent were assessing his chances to beat you on the flop, and if he could somehow "know" that three sevens would win if he could make them (of course, he has no such assurance: he could easily be up against a higher set, or make three sevens only to lose to a straight or a flush), he'd have about an 8 percent chance, because he would have two chances at his two outs. In baseball terms, when you're trailing, it's better to have two outs in the bottom of the eighth than two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

So, in that "flopped two pair with A-K vs. pocket sevens" situation, facing a lone opponent, you'd have to be pretty unlucky to lose. On the other hand, if you are facing four opponents, it's likely that their combined chances of drawing out on you are pretty decent (if someone holding two eights isn't already beating you).

My questioner was probably hoping for a simple answer, for example, "You'll lose 7 percent of the time on the river and 11 percent of the time on the turn," but poker isn't simple, thank goodness.

It's Only One Card, but You Do Lose More Often on the Turn, Because …

It might seem like there's no mathematical difference between the chance of a turn card beating you and a river card beating you, because it's one card in each case, but there are huge practical differences. Because betting on the turn tends to eliminate players holding weak hands or thin draws, you're less likely to get beat by someone holding only an inside-straight draw on the river.

A player might hang in with something like an inside-straight draw and a backdoor-flush draw after the flop, hoping to either hit his straight or at least improve to a full blown flush draw on the turn, but then drop out after the turn when he misses his chance to make a flush. So, even though the turn and the river are each only one card, opponents will catch up to you more often on the turn than on the river.

You might remember the river beats more, because they feel more painful and are usually more expensive, but they happen less.

As to whether someone will catch you or pass you on the flop, the precise odds of course depend entirely on your hand, but one thing you should learn is that most hold'em starting hands are much smaller favorites than many players think. For example, if someone holding the A K gets his money all in against someone holding the Qu 9, he thinks it's a terrible, awful, horrible beat if he loses … but, in fact, his hand is only very slightly better than a 2-1 favorite! He is supposed to lose in that situation almost a third of the time!

Those possessing poor emotional control are probably going to go berserk anyway, but if your emotional control is at least moderate, knowing the odds might make the difference between losing the hand and losing it for the night.

Learn the Odds in these Common Situations

Other common situations in which players aren't nearly the favorites they think they are include:

1. K-K vs. A-X. That lone overcard gives the underdog slightly less than a 30 percent chance to win (the exact odds depend on what the "X" is; if the ace is suited, the chances are better than 30 percent). Similar odds apply in most "one overcard vs. a pair" situations (for example, J-J vs. A-J).

2. 2-2 vs. J-10 suited. Recreational players are used to hearing that "any pair is roughly an 11-10 favorite over two overcards," and while that's a moderately useful rule of thumb, remember that you have two thumbs and eight other fingers. If you take the 2 2 up against the J 10, you're actually a 54-46 underdog. The main reasons for this "finger exception" (as far as I know, that's a new phrase, probably because it's so ungainly, so I'm taking credit for it if it sticks) are:

(a) Small pairs are vulnerable to counterfeiting (for example, pocket deuces are worthless if the board comes 8-7-7-8-3); and

(b) As long as all you are worried about is a heads-up battle of a pair vs. overcards, you might as well take the hand that makes the most straights and flushes.

3. One nonpaired overcard, for example, the A Q vs. the K Q. The A-Q is only a 3-1 favorite. The odds on having a nonpaired undercard, for example, the K Q vs. the K J, fall in the same ballpark. People who hold A-Q and wind up losing to A-2 tend to act or feel like their opponent has just caught his fifth consecutive royal flush, but the A Q wins outright only 70.8 percent of the time vs. the A 2 (which wins outright 23.1 percent of the time, with the rest of the pots split).

Don't Invoke Your Right to Feel Grumpy

Indeed, the only preflop situations in which one has any real "right" to feel grumpy (and if you succumb to this "right," you'll probably go on tilt and lose a lot more) occur when your overpair loses to an underpair (for example, 9-9 loses to 6-6; the odds against that are almost 4.5-1) or your pair loses to one undercard. For example, the K K is almost a 15-1 favorite to beat the K 7, although the odds drop to 8-1 if the undercard hand is suited (K 7), or to 9-1 if it is something like the K 10 and can hence make a straight.

If you take the time to learn the odds in some of these fairly common hold'em situations, not only will you be able to make proper pot odds decisions, you will also probably be less vulnerable to going on tilt, because you will understand that your loss wasn't as improbable as the sun going nova.

If you take matters one step further, while pondering whether you made the right decision on a hand, and try to figure out all the variables that an experienced player might ask you about, you might realize, right there at the table while you still have a chance to do something about it before the night is over, that you're doing something wrong.

You might recognize something about your table image, the kinds of starting hands you are playing, or the way your opponents are playing, but it's pretty likely that the more questions you ask (be they to yourself or to someone else), the more you'll learn, and the more you understand at an intellectual level, the less vulnerable you'll be on an emotional level.