A Good Cheltenham Fetival

Sometimes you can do everything right and yet seem to do everything wrong. It matters little they key to it is: doing things that are right at the time.

Here’s some examples. I backed Binocular for the Champion Hurdle ante-post at an array of prices ranging from 5/1 to 3/1. When he won last month’s Cheltenham championship contest he went off at 9/1. I had him doubled up in a few bets with Big Zeb at 4/1 for the Champion Chase – he won at a starting price of 10/1.

One of my bets, a cheeky €200 double at 4/1 and 4/1, gave me €5,000. At the starting price (SP) returns of 9/1 and 10/1 the double would have paid €22,000! Talk about NOT getting the value.

Timing is key. In truth, come the Festival, I made their respective SP’s short at the prices they were and believed my own portfolio to be near worthless. However, when I placed the best, with all factors taken into account, I believed I had value.

I certainly had value about Leeds to win the Football League 1 at odds of 7/2. They performed so well at the start of the year they were 1/5 to win the league at Christmas time. As we now know, 1/5 shots get beat all too often!

Likewise I had the value about Sebastian Vettel to win the Australian Grand Prix at 5/2. Come race day he was the 4/6 favourite. He traded at 1/3 when a decisive leader on lap 25 only for his brakes to fail forcing him into retirement.

All of these coups may hurt when they go awry but, just like getting pot odds of 9/4 in a hand when you have 15 outs, long-term you will come out in front.

This year I am going to chase Sebastian Vettel all the way to the summit of a mountain or directly down the toilet. That is providing the odds compilers continue to underrate the German driver who has been let down by his machinery, has rarely makes a mistake, has a fast car but has been beset by mechanical failures.

I simply love backing competitors in form. In horseracing an improving filly on the all-weather that is improving faster than the handicapper can push her up the ratings. A greyhound bitch returning from her seasonal break, a darts or snooker player who has found the winning thread, a football team that cannot stop winning and, most definitely, a golfer who has hit form. All of these float my boat.

THE FLAT SEASON
It will soon be in full swing and once again many will be expecting Aiden O’Brien to dominate most of the Group races during the season. With millions of Euros of bloodstock and resources behind him he doubtlessly will. However just how anyone could consider backing his St Nicholas Abbey, at a best priced 2/1 for the Epsom Derby, is beyond me.

He doubtlessly was an extraordinary two-year-old but he would not be the first juvenile who failed to progress into a champion three-year-old, just look back to the same trainers Johannesburg who rounded off his two-year-old career with a win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile but failed to win a race as a three-year-old despite being winter favourite for all the classics.

Indeed St Nicholas Abbey may not have developed during he off season – ‘trained on’ it is called in racing circles – likewise there could well be a lot of equine talent which has yet to be unveiled.

He could, like all good horses, easily pick up an injury. He is far from guaranteed to stay the Derby distance of one-mile-four-furlongs and most vitally he, like so many fancied horses that have gone before, may find the tight turns, undulations and camber that is Epsom far from his liking.

St Nicholas Abbey may well win the Derby come June, he could be every part as good as some of the all-time-greats but anyone who wants to back him at odds of 2/1 a full two months before the race need an urgent appointment with a psychiatrist.