PLOnkaments – Part II

With each hand of a tournament, good players accumulate chips, and bad players lose them. The vast majority of entrants might be break-even or long-term losers, but on the final-table of a large plonkament, it’s likely that all the remaining players are winners. Your strategy must change from exploiting bad players to preventing being exploited by the better ones. In the meantime, be aware of independent chip model (ICM) considerations – waiting for other people to make risky plays, so that you can move up the pay scale.

Post-flop Play

Throughout the tournament, your general post-flop strategy shouldn’t deviate much from normal cash game strategy, taking into account generally shorter stack sizes. During the early stages, you can put people under a lot more pressure ⎯ good players will be looking to save their stack to apply their edge later on, and bad players simply won’t want to pay all that money for only an hour or two of entertainment. Bluff-raising is an effective counter-strategy to good players value-betting light and bluffing. It works especially well when you’re all-in on the turn or river and can represent strong hands. There are some strong players against whom this strategy will not work, as they have the attitude of trying to get a big stack early or busting. This strategy is not optimal in the context of each individual tournament, but makes sense if they have ways of making more money ⎯ if they build a big stack, the tournament is worth playing, but if not, their hourly rate would be higher playing live or online cash.

Live Tells

There are also, of course, a lot of people who simply don’t want to be bluffed, and will call. Even thinking players will find some excuse to get their hand to showdown. The most common one is that they are betting or raising to induce a bluff. In live events, they will invent some tell that allows them to justify the call. Your job is to work out who you can make plays against as quickly as possible. At the start of each tournament, focus on those two to your left and one to your right, as these are the guys you’ll get involved with the most. If those guys are tight, aren’t giving anything away, or there are more obvious “tellboxes” at the table ⎯ basically advertising their intentions ahead of time, telling observant opponents what they have ⎯ focus on them instead.

There are a number of standard live tells that are often discussed ⎯ touching the nose or holding the hand over the mouth is a sign of weakness, while shaky hands often mean strength. Most people are aware of these classic tells, though. In big buy in live PLO tournaments, few people are giving information away that easily, and those that do are trying to manipulate you.

Dig a little deeper and you can find nuggets of gold amongst the noise of mass misinformation. In multiway pots, observe those to your left, especially preflop. They will very often have chips ready to call or raise, or have their cards forward ready to fold. You can change your play accordingly ⎯ throw away weak hands you otherwise might call with or trap strong hands if it looks like the guy behind you is going to raise; raise a wider range if it looks like those behind you are going to fold.

Don’t watch the flop as it’s coming out, watch your opponents and their hands ⎯ if a guy reaches for his chips as soon as the flop comes out, he probably likes his hand; if he leans back, he’s relaxed that he has a simple decision to make, usually not putting any more money into the pot. In pot-limit Omaha, when someone asks how much the pot is, they’ve often got a strong hand. Make sure to keep track of the pot-size yourself, so that when you have the nuts, you can bet or raise the pot without others cottoning onto your strength.

It’s useless to read other people if you’re giving your own hand away, though. Wearing sunglasses doesn’t really prevent others reading you ⎯ you’ve got to be an incredible reader of reactions, on a par with Derren Brown, to get useful information from the eyes. Personally, though, it gives me a sense of invisibility as I’m often observing other people intently, I don’t want them to know I’m watching them. I also put in headphones, but am in fact rarely listening to music – I want people to think I’m not focussing on what they say, but even good players regularly give away their hand by talking. Unless you’re very experienced at manipulating people by talking, you should generally keep quiet.

ICM Considerations

Independent chip modelling is the theory that each additional chip you win is worth less than the one before. If the buyin is $5,000, and you double up the first hand, your stack is worth much less than $10,000. The reason is that winning all the chips doesn’t win you all the money ⎯ first place for a World Series of Poker PLO tournament is usually less than a quarter of the prize pool.

During the early stages, this consideration is mirrored by the idea that you can apply a greater edge later on, so you can pass up marginal gambles. However, most people significantly overestimate their edge. Later on, specifically on the bubble or final table, a lot of people attempt to build up a big stack so they can push for a big finish, but this strategy is an ICM nightmare. A minimum cash might not be worth much to you, so taking risks around the bubble, especially when other people are folding too much, is ok.

When first prize is out of proportion to the rest of the field – in sit “n” gos, satellites, and the World Series main event, where you are guaranteed sponsorship and endorsement money, it makes sense to take more risks on the final table. However, the vast majority of the time, correct strategy is to play tight on all streets and wait for other people to bust out. This means taking first less often, but a better money result on average.

Selective aggression, as always, is key to winning strategy, but needs further refinement for PLO tournaments. Knowing how and when to apply the most pressure is important – some people won’t fold anything, but others will fold their hand to the first sign of aggression. Most opponents will fall somewhere in the middle of that spectrum, though, and you’ll need to observe them for a while before you can judge when they’re weak. Make sure others aren’t picking up anything reliable on you, so you can be free to make the best play possible. More often than not, that best play will be to fold and wait for a better spot, so you can move up the pay ladder, especially later on but remember that you will still need to accumulate chips, and unless you’re surrounded by idiots, you’ll have to gamble at some point.