Poker Strategy With Ed Miller: One Flop, Ten HandsMiller Explores Ten Situations On One Flop |
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Perhaps the best exercise you can do with your poker study time is to construct ranges. You choose one point in a hand, and you decide how you should play every possible hand you could have to that point.
So here we go. We’re going to look at a hand range on a single flop. It’s an abbreviated exercise because I have neither the column space nor the patience to write up every possible hand. But when I’m at home studying, constructing ranges, I do indeed choose an action for every possible hand combination.
You’re playing $5-$10 with a typical assortment of decent players. You have a $1,000 stack, and most of your opponents have you covered. Everyone folds to the player two off the button who opens for $30. You call on the button. The blinds fold. It’s two players to the flop, and the pot is $75.
The flop comes 10
6
3
. Your opponent bets $40. Now we’ll run through ten hands you could have here and how I’d play each one.
Before I do that, here’s my general take on the situation. Even though my opponent raised preflop, it doesn’t mean he has the stronger set of preflop hands. Apart from the fact that he can hold A-A or K-K and I likely can’t (because I would have reraised these hands), our total set of hands is roughly equally strong. Put another way, I don’t cold-call raises lightly.
I have position. On this flop in particular, position will prove a large advantage. It’s an information advantage, and the value of information is maximized in pots where hand values change a lot from flop to turn to river. If the flop is A-A-A, position doesn’t matter as much. You either have it or you don’t. But on this sort of flop — low top card, flush draw, various straight draws — turn and river cards are nearly guaranteed to shift the pecking order of hands. This adds value to position.
So this is a good flop and a favorable situation for our entire range versus our opponent’s range. I plan to exploit that advantage by folding infrequently and by making small raises with a relatively wide range of hands. Add in the fact that many $5-$10 preflop raisers will not realize that they are at a disadvantage on this flop and will continuation bet (c-bet) far too aggressively, and this is a profitable situation.
I choose a small flop raise size since it allows me to widen my raising range, and it also best exploits an opponent who is c-betting with too much pure junk. For the purpose of this exercise, assume that when I raise, I will raise $60 to make it $100 total.
It’s now time for the lightning round. As a reminder, stacks are $1,000, the flop is 10 6 3, we’ve called a preflop raise on the button, and our opponent has bet the flop.
6 6
Middle set is a raise. We’re raising a lot of hands, so we definitely should raise bottom and middle set. If we catch our opponent with an overpair or A-10, we could easily win stacks.
Q Q
I do not always reraise Q-Q preflop in position, and one reason I don’t is that I like to have this hand in my range on flops like this one. This is a flop raise. If I’m going to apply pressure with bluffs, I need to have real hands sometimes also.
10 10
Top set, I would just call. Slow playing top set is natural, since the holding cripples the deck for our opponent. On this board, I will be raising nearly all my value hands, so it’s nice to still be able to threaten the nuts when I just call the flop. Some players would look at the possible draws and think it’s too dangerous to slow play. With most hands we aren’t slow playing. Just this one.
A Q
Call. We have two overcards, a backdoor-flush draw to the queen, and possible ace-high showdown value. It’s not a great hand, but recall that our strategy has us folding infrequently because of our structural advantages in the pot. I prefer calling with this hand over bluffing, as calling preserves the showdown value, and we’ll almost never end the hand with the nuts, so there’s no value to building a pot.
8 7
A wrong-suited gutshot to the nuts. This is a hand I’d raise. Again, we’re raising frequently to push our positional advantage and possibly to punish our opponent for continuation betting too many hands. Gutshots to the nuts make good bluff-raising hands in general, as they typically have no showdown value, and they also can justify building the pot since you will end up occasionally stacking an opponent when you hit the nuts. If you get reraised, you fold.
Q 10
Top pair with a marginal kicker. This is a straightforward call. If this pot blows up, your hand is not good. It’s best suited to pick off bluffs and to protect your calling range (since you’re also calling with unpaired hands).
6 5
Bottom pair with backdoor-flush and straight draws. This is a hand I might have reraised preflop. But if I didn’t, I’m likely raising it now. The potential to make three sixes or the backdoor draws add value to this hand in a big pot. Many turn cards add equity to this hand — any spade and any six through deuce. If our opponent calls the flop raise, we will frequently get to bet big on the turn with a decent chance of drawing out when called.
A 3
Bottom pair with the nut-flush draw. Many people raise this hand reflexively, but I prefer to call here. If you get this hand all-in on the flop, you’re likely up against a set or a big overpair — a range against which you are a slight dog.
Calling with this hand has much to argue for it. You have a draw to the nuts. You can spike a trey and stack your opponent. You can spike an ace and maybe win an extra bet. And it has showdown value. Furthermore, because I am raising many hands on this flop, I will be raising a fair percentage of my flush draws. I like to also hold some flush draws back and just call so if the third flush card comes, no matter my flop action, I can have it.
5 5
This is the type of hand I fold. There’s a small amount of showdown value, but that’s it. The draw isn’t strong enough to risk a big pot. And it can’t handle a second bet. I also fold hands like A 5 and J 9.
J 9
Backdoor-flush and straight draws with an overcard. I would likely call. The backdoor draws mean a lot of turn cards will justify aggression. I’m defending a hand this weak because I have the structural advantage, and in most cases I’m not going to let this pot go without a fight. ♠
Ed’s newest book, Playing The Player: Moving Beyond ABC Poker To Dominate Your Opponents, is on sale at notedpokerauthority.com. Find Ed on Facebook at facebook.com/edmillerauthor and on Twitter @EdMillerPoker.
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