The Poker Lottery

You paid that big blind and you have 25 left, button is bleeding chips and it’s time to make your move. One player limps in but you got the late position, small blind pays the toll but hey, that’s half price. With the moderate confidence of pocket nines you shout the raise. You’re in for 5 big blinds with 25 left in the stash.

You can’t help but stare at your opponent across the table, he is a regular at the tables in your local room, you don’t know his name and you don’t particularly like him. You lower your eyes and look at his stack, the feelings change, he has about 40 blinds left and it’s about time those chips change hands. While hiding your emotions behind your large shades, you can’t help but notice a slight curl on the left side of his mouth just before he silently pushes the call pass the line. You’re surely ahead!

You look to your right. The guy on the small blind is miles away, seemingly more interested in the fit blackjack dealer at the far edge of the room than the poker game. It’s on you. The dealer brings his attention back to the table, he has another look at the cards, ‘two players? Yeah, call!’

Three players and a rainbow K-9-4 flop, you got this, surely no one would limp in with cowboys. It’s time for some good old fashion slow play. The inattentive kid must be in a rush to leave the table as he places a 5 big blind bet, you put him on 2 pair and do the sensible thing anyone would do with your monster hand. You call! Your attention turns to your real adversary across the table; your thoughts are in a frenzy ‘call call!’ – he does.

The dealer turns a 3, this is awesome, they are as good as out. ‘All in’ – says the small blind kid, pushing in with little conviction. Your inner voice reasons about pushing also and cutting your small risk down to a heads up battle, but then again if you can fatally bleed your main opponent and get massively ahead in the process, why not finish him now?You stick to the call! Your strategy works, you managed to lure in the player across the table to call. You’re getting good at this!

River is an Ace. This is kind of unexpected, there’s now 3 diamonds on the table and none in your hand, ‘what do I do now?’ You decide to check. Your previously passive opponent puts you on the spot, ‘All in to call’ – reminds the dealer. It’s been 40 seconds, the kid calls the clock on you, ‘call, call!’, what else could you do now…

The player to your right reveals 2-5, across the table, the suited K-9 benefits from the river diamond to take the side pot. You walk in shame, cursing the river. Once again a fish taught you a poker lesson!

Losing this hand had nothing to do with the luck of the river or the lottery of poker, you did not have a plan for your hand and you misjudged your opponent’s range, you overestimated your implied odds not to mention you need to rethink your notion of ‘committed.’

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