Poker Strategy With Ed Miller: Making Snap Judgments

I judge my opponents by the way they look. Then I make adjustments to my strategy based on these judgments. I do it every time I play, and these snap judgments form the basis of my strategy choices against unknown players until I have more information.

I played a session recently when two of these snap judgments first saved and then made me quite a bit of money that I would have missed out on otherwise.

The first snap judgment was about an Asian man in his 40s or 50s. He was a little bit overweight and wearing a Margaritaville t-shirt and a nondescript baseball cap. He hunched over the table.

Everything about his look said to me that he was a tourist, a recreational player, and an unconfident poker player. I’d seen the demographic and the dress and the posture many times before, and it added up to a loose and passive player who wouldn’t give anyone much trouble.

Except that almost as soon as he sat at the table, his guns were blazing. He raised four of the first six pots. He blew me off one hand with a big turn raise. He was betting and raising like a crazy person, winning each pot without a showdown.

It’s unlikely for a player to be dealt four very strong hands in such a short period of time. And furthermore, these were his very first hands.

If my snap judgment about his appearance hadn’t been so strong, I would quickly have assumed that he was trying to run over the table. But I just could not bring myself to assume that this player—with his specific look and body language—was here to LAG it up. I’d literally never in my life seen a player look and behave like him and yet play like a maniac.

The very next hand arose a situation where I considered making a play. A professional player opened for $20, and this player reraised to $60 with about $1,000 behind. I had A 10 in the big blind. If I think this player is the type I would assume based on my visual read, then I would expect his reraising range to be tight, and I would fold A-10 suited to the raise and reraise.

If instead he’s the player he seems to be based on his first six hands at the table, I would consider four-betting as a bluff with this hand. It’s a great hand to bluff with, and if I think my opponent is likely to be light on his reraise, it should be profitable for me.

I considered it for about 20 seconds, but ultimately I went with my original snap judgment. I’d never seen a player with exactly this set of personal characteristics fail to play to type. I wasn’t willing to throw out years of experience based on just a few hands.

I folded, but the other player called the reraise and played the hand to showdown. The reraiser in question ended up winning the hand with K-K.

From that point on, the storm was over. He played three hours of meek no-limit hold’em. He just happened to catch five good hands in his first round at the table. It’s a rare thing, but it happens.

I surprised myself with how much weight I put into my snap judgment. I wouldn’t always cling so hard to a visual read, but these events showed me how much weight I can put into one when I feel like I have a lot of past experience with a particular player type.

My second snap judgment came against a white guy probably in his early 20s. He was a big fellow with a young face who seemed fresh out of college.

In Las Vegas, this demographic usually fits one of two categories of player. First, it’s casual players who are on vacation and want to get a few hours of play in before drinking with their buddies. These guys usually buy in for significantly less than the maximum—often just $200 to $500 in a $2-$5 no-limit hold’em game. They also show some unease with playing in the casino setting, since, due to their age, much of their experience is likely online play and home games.

Then there are the pros and the wannabe pros. These guys almost never sit with less than a maximum buy-in. They socialize with others like them in the room, but they usually don’t interact much with the tourists or other players. When I moved to Vegas years ago at age 23, this was me.

This guy had a stack of black chips in front of him, and two of his young, white, male friends kept coming over to chat.

Pro.

The core skill of a pro in a $2-$5 Vegas game is barreling. When your opponents check, you bet, no matter what you have. Pros do this reliably in many situations, while non-pros typically will abandon a bluff after their flop continuation bet gets called—or possibly after a second try on the turn.

So this guy opened for $20 from the cutoff, and I called in the big blind with Q-J.
The flop came J-7-3, and I check-called $30.

The turn was a K, and I check-called $70.

The river was a 2, and I check-called $150.

If my opponent were one of the recreational tourists, I would likely have assumed that the $150 river bet was not a bluff, and therefore that my jack was beaten. I probably would have folded.

But because of my snap judgment that my opponent here was a pro (or at least someone trying to make it as a pro), I assumed he was likely to try to bluff three times, and I called. Indeed, he showed A-9, and I won.

I think it behooves aspiring pros to try to conceal their status. Now, I made no attempt to do so when I was 23, so I fully understand why they don’t. But if you broadcast that you are a professional player with the way you dress and handle yourself, you give people like me clues about how to handle situations like the above. Ultimately, this costs you money.

Ideally, you want to present yourself as a specific, common player type. In Las Vegas, passing as a tourist—at least to other tourists—goes a long way. Tourists are well aware that pros inhabit the games here, and they’re constantly on alert. Most don’t particularly want to give action to pros, and if they make you as a pro, they might behave more unpredictably than usual.

It’s just food for thought. It can only help to appear one way at a poker table, but to play differently. The more you play to type, the more you allow my snap judgments to be good judgments. ♠

Ed’s newest book, The Course: Serious Hold ‘Em Strategy For Smart Players is available now at his website edmillerpoker.com. You can also find original articles and instructional videos by Ed at the training site redchippoker.com.

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