Poker Hand Matchup: Mustapha Kanit vs. Fedor Holz
Mustapha Kanit	Win Pre-Flop	Win Post-Flop	Win Post-Turn
Starting Stack: 286,500	59.89 %	26.36 %	18.18 %	Winner!
Fedor Holz	Win Pre-Flop	Win Post-Flop	Win Post-Turn
Starting Stack: 322,000	39.62 %	73.64 %	81.82 %

Posted On: Sep 04, 2014

Outcome

Preflop, with the blinds at 2,500 and 5,000 and a 500 ante, Doug Polk raised to 9,500 from the button, Kanit reraised to 25,500 from the small blind, Holz reraised to 65,000 from the big blind, Polk folded, Kanit reraised to 101,000, and Holz called. On the flop Kanit bet 58,000, Holz went all-in, and Kanit called and was all-in.

Analysis

Hoping that Kanit was just punishing a light opening from Doug Polk, Holz seized upon the dynamics between button raisers and their opponents in the blinds. Holz used some bulky bet sizing to shut down a potential resteal attempt from Kanit, but in this case Kanit had a legitimate reraising hand. Kanit may have blundered when he decided on the amount of his five-bet, making it 101,000 would almost always invite a call as Holz only faced another 36,000 for the pot of 180,000. Obviously his opponent would likely proceed for such a nominal amount, getting 5:1 on his money with the benefit of position post-flop. This would be an acceptable bet size for a premium pocket pair that wanted to bait an opponent onward, but for a hand like AK which would miss the flop two thirds of the time the bet sizing didn’t do much to help his cause. Kanit missed the flop but it did give him a gutshot straight draw along with his overcards. He led out with another curiously sized bet for one fourth the pot, and Holz quickly committed with his second pair and flush draw. Kanit had butchered his line in the hand, and now called off his remaining stack of 127,000 with his diamond outs blocked. Kanit caught a lucky break on the river, getting there with his straight to broadway as Holz lost 89% of his stack. The fortuitous double up carried Kanit to a 9th place finish, good for €105,455.