Poker Hand Matchup: Erik Seidel vs. Isaac Haxton
Erik Seidel	Win Pre-Flop	Win Post-Flop	Win Post-Turn
Starting Stack: 985,000	60.15 %	35.05 %	20.45 %	Winner!
Isaac Haxton	Win Pre-Flop	Win Post-Flop	Win Post-Turn
Starting Stack: 970,000	39.4 %	64.95 %	79.55 %

Posted On: May 20, 2015

Outcome

Preflop, with the blinds at 6,000 and 12,000 and a 1,000 ante, Haxton raised to 31,000 from the button, Seidel reraised to 75,000 from the small blind, and Haxton called. On the flop Seidel bet 113,000 and Haxton called. On the turn Seidel checked and Haxton checked. On the river Seidel bet 115,000, Haxton raised to 515,000, Seidel went all-in, and Haxton called and was all-in.

Analysis

Seidel continued his preflop aggression by firing away on the flop with a form of semi-bluff while holding over cards and the inside straight draw. Haxton simply flatted with his top pair. When Seidel checked the turn Haxton must have felt more confident in his holding, with a wet board offering straight and flush draws Haxton may have reasoned Seidel would have bet with anything that led his top pair. Haxton checked behind, giving his line some misdirection as he underrepresented the Jack. Seidel hit the perfect card on the river as he improved to the nut straight while Haxton picked up two-pair. Seidel submitted a small value bet, but Haxton felt it was safe to get more value from his two pair hand, and that it would be a squandered opportunity to just call here. He could get paid off by A-Q or K-Q, two hands highly consistent with Seidel’s line thus-far in the hand. Seidel surprised him with the all-in, and Haxton realized something was amiss as he went into the tank. He knew Seidel would probably not commit all-in with A-Q or K-Q in this spot after his raise, and he also knew that Seidel would probably not overplay J-10 or Q-10 like this either. Seidel would have just called the raise instead of reraising all-in with these hands. Haxton must have known it would be an unlikely spot for Seidel to bluff. This was a tough spot for his two-pair. Seidel’s excellent bet sizing on the river inspired Haxton’s raise, but it appears Haxton’s bet sizing wasn’t as well conceived as he proved unable to get away from his hand even though he must have known he was beat. With the huge pot out there and a strong hand, Haxton felt painted into the corner, but a fold would have left him with 22 big blinds. It didn’t really matter that his check on the turn may have obfuscated his holding to his opponent, everything he needed to know was right there on the river after Seidel shoved.