Returning Starters in College Football

The start of the 2002 college football season is just days away. It not only promises to be the "biggest college football season in history," it, in fact, will be. That's because most of the college teams will be playing 12 regular-season games this season - and many, 13. More teams than ever will have their games posted on the main Las Vegas line. And there are more post-season games on tap than ever before. Whether they prefer to wager on the games or not, college football fans appear headed for a feast.

For those who do enjoy betting a matchstick or two, analysis of the teams for the upcoming season usually begins with an examination of the returning starters. Unlike the NFL, with its five-weeklong preseason campaign, there are no exhibition practice games in the colleges. Teams play "for real" from the get-go. Thus, analysis of the starters returning from last year's teams can be particularly valuable.

Here are some thoughts:

The most important returning starter is the quarterback. To anyone who knows football, this is obvious. In college, with its constant personnel turnover, having a QB who has already been in "the crucible of fire" is a nice edge at the start of the season. Experienced QBs usually make fewer turnovers and other mistakes, are better leaders of their teammates, operate a "larger" offense, and are more likely to spot and exploit weaknesses in a defense. Over the course of the whole season, a younger QB with more talent might prove to be more valuable, but for the first game or two, a combination of less talent/more experience is usually better.

Second in importance is the offensive line. The linemen are the engine of the offense. Without good play up front, it is very difficult for the offensive stars to shine, regardless of their touted 4.4 speed. With all the defensive packages and blitzing these days, savvy, veteran offensive linemen are a huge plus. Any frosh or soph offensive linemen (who usually are not as physically developed as college upperclassmen) who show signs of weakness will be exploited repeatedly by opposing defensive coaches. Nothing is worse for an offense than an inability to run the ball, combined with a QB who is constantly pressured, hit, and/or sacked. In the first couple of weeks, I look to go with teams with four or five returning offensive line starters, and against those with one or none.

Third in importance is the secondary. You might have noticed in the past decade or so how the emphasis of the college game has changed from the ball-control ground game to the diverse aerial attack. Of course, balance is always best. However, if an opposing team is slow and/or inexperienced in the secondary, it is likely to be burned early and often by a speedy, experienced foe. That's one of the reasons why you see some big, eye-popping scores early in the season. One misstep by a freshman cornerback or a nervous safety can often mean a touchdown. Moreover, young secondaries usually require defensive coordinators to "play it safe," using fewer blitzes, disguises, and combination coverages that could confuse opposing QBs. Also, young secondaries usually have a difficult time "closing out" an opposing offense in the late going.

Wide receivers are next in importance. Yes, premium running backs are nice to have, but there is usually nothing more valuable to a team (especially an underdog) than a wideout who has proven rapport with his QB and is outclassing his defender the entire game. A solid QB/WR combo in early games usually means third-down conversions, long drives, and TDs instead of field goals.

Inexperienced defenses tend to develop faster than inexperienced offenses. It takes a while for young offenses to develop the confidence and sophistication needed to win big games. But, if players are big and fast, even if young, they can usually help the defensive platoon be very effective even if it's quite youthful and basic.

Be careful about over emphasizing the returning starters angle. By and by, talent is usually more important than experience. I remember one eventual national champion of years past that went into the season with magazines listing only four starters returning from the previous season. A beginning-of-the-season experience edge in the starting lineup works best in the first one to three games, and sometimes longer for teams with an unusual number of returning starters, such as 18 or 19 (those exceptional teams usually have previously developed lots of camaraderie and tend to have well-defined goals going into the season). Because of the vastly improved quality of play in high schools in recent years, it is easier for talented newcomers to make an immediate impact in college. Also, because of the trendy "situational" offenses and defenses these days, many players not listed as returning starters actually have substantial game experience.

Adjust your list of returning starters. Just because a preseason press release, magazine, or sportswriter says a team has "X" number of returning starters, that doesn't make it so. It's usually best for handicappers to adjust their lists for the various injuries, arrests, suspensions, and/or academic ineligibilities that inevitably occur before the actual start of the season. Forewarned is forearmed. Surprises are usually bad in sports betting, and successful handicappers work hard to avoid them.

An early-season edge in returning starters can sometimes re-emerge in late-season "rivalry games." It's usually the case that the more bitter the rivalry, the longer the memories of the players. When the situation gets particularly nasty, cold, and painful, it usually helps a lot to have been there before. Any overwhelmed youngsters are likely to receive no quarter.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The Gold Sheet's popular 48-page football preview issue is now on newsstands, covering the NFL preseason and college football (including an "opening" list of returning starters) with inside reports, statistical breakdowns, pointspread logs, and upcoming schedules. If you would like to order a copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.