Mindset for Football 2002

I have written several times on these pages that in sports betting, in order to "play" a good game, you first have to "think" a good game. And there is never a better time to "get your mind right" than at the start of the football season.

Here are some of the essential reminders for a winning football wagering campaign:

Have a Specific Sports Betting Bankroll. You should never bet money that you cannot afford to lose. Just as you might set aside money for Christmas or vacations, you should set aside money for sports betting, if you choose to so indulge. Once you lose that bankroll, you should consider yourself "out of action" until your financial circumstances allow you to replenish it. And if losses from sports betting are forcing you to alter your lifestyle for the worse, you are betting too much. For most people, sports betting is recreation, not a profession, and should be treated as such.

Be Determined to Win Money, Not Satisfied Just to Be in Action. It is an old Chinese proverb that says, "Vague beginnings invite chaotic endings." Football betting is fun. It usually heightens the drama already inherent in the game. But if you want to win the "inner game" with yourself and increase your bankroll, you must have a certain determination to proceed in an orderly, disciplined, unemotional manner. And you must have that determination from the outset and keep it all year.

Start Slowly. One of the worst things you can do is to try to hit a "grand slam" the first week. Restrain this impulse, as it's a long season. In fact, 2002 is going to be the longest ever, with the most college and NFL games in history. Don't get overeager. It's OK to test the waters a few times, but don't dive in headfirst. Regardless of how much preseason preparation you have done, you're probably going to learn more about the 2002 teams in the first two weeks of the season than at any other time of the year. Guard your bankroll carefully at this time of the year. If you feel an irresistible impulse to get involved in lots of games, cut the amount of each wager substantially. Then, if you happen to win, you're happy, and if you lose, you're not seriously damaged.

Wait Until the Form Shows. Always judge teams by their actual ability and chemistry, not by your preseason analysis and expectations for them. Otherwise, you might have missed the Rams of 1999, the Sooners of 2000, and the Patriots of 2002. Just as importantly, you might miss the corresponding huge disappointments of each season. After a couple of weeks, smart handicappers start plotting to go with the "go-with" teams in high-percentage spots and to go against the "go-against" teams in their low-percentage spots. Anticipation, patience, and the search for pointspread value become the keys.

Increase Your Wagers Slightly if You're Going Well. If you're winning, and if you think you're in tune with the teams in a season, you should consider increasing the size of your betting unit somewhat, and/or adding an additional play or two to your weekly list. This way, you can increase the amount of money won over the course of the season, even if your winning percentage doesn't increase substantially. And winning a larger amount of money is more important than having a higher winning percentage. (If you don't fully understand that last sentence, you should read it again.)

Decrease Your Wagers if You're Not Doing Well. It's almost always helpful to use the percentage-of-bankroll method in sports betting (say, 4 percent for your normal wager). This way, the size of each of your wagers will decrease rather automatically as your bankroll diminishes in size. If you're losing, you also should reduce your number of weekly wagers until you get back on track. You must have confidence that, by and by, things will turn around and you'll win your share. But you must be determined to preserve your bankroll through the hard times, so that you're still in action when things start going your way.

Be Disciplined. Don't plunge. Don't chase your money. Don't guess at games. Sportsbooks will love you if you do. So, don't do it. Wager only on games/teams that you have analyzed well, whereby you're making an "educated" guess. Wager only at "fair" pointspreads. Do your homework, and search for pointspread value. Sportsbooks won't like it if you do. So, that's the way to go.

Don't Chase Your Money on Sunday Night and Monday Night Games. Professional gamblers literally laugh at amateur sports bettors who "load up" on Sunday and Monday night games in order to "get out" for the weekend. Just because a game is on TV doesn't mean it's a good wagering vehicle. Yet, most weak and undisciplined sportsbettors literally guess at these games, employing parlays and teasers, and often increasing the size of their wagers just so they have a chance to avoid a losing week. It's better to be a man about it. If the Sunday or Monday night game wasn't on your original list of well-handicapped, high-percentage plays for the week, don't put it on at the last minute. Take your loss for that week and wait until next weekend's card, when the pickings and percentages are more in your favor. Don't let your ego and emotions get the best of you. (Most sports bettors fail at the latter, by the way.)

If You Must Indulge in TV Games, Employ a "Beer-Money" Wager. Many times, TV games are the most fun to watch, but not necessarily the best ones to bet. In fact, many TV games are chosen for telecast because they are very competitive, closely contested, tough-to-predict games. If you know the game is a "tough call" but you want to be in action anyway, use a "beer-money" wager that is one-fourth or one-fifth the size of your normal unit. You'll have some fun, and your bankroll won't suffer any serious damage if you lose.

Remember, there are two extremely terrible things you can do in sports betting, and losing your sports betting bankroll is not necessarily one of them. One is going personally broke by losing money beyond that of your sports bankroll. The other is to plunge, chase your money, bet more games when you're losing, and try to "get out" on the Sunday and Monday night games to such an extent that overall, you hit a winning percentage of games over the course of the season but end up losing money because of your terrible money management. And that is a situation that occurs far too often among people who should know better, but who don't maintain the mindset necessary to win.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The Gold Sheet's popular 48-page football preview issue is now on the newsstands, covering the NFL preseason and college football (including an "opening" list of returning starters) with inside reports, statistical breakdowns, pointspread logs, and upcoming schedules. If you would like to order a copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.