New Year, New Chemistry

The big (the most games ever!), exciting 2002 football season is now under way. And with all the games these days on network TV, cable channels, and home satellite dishes, you've probably gotten a chance to view dozens of teams already. But before you stand on your head to empty your pockets so that you can make an early killing on a good-looking team, here's a little perspective to consider while the season is still young.

Every season is an entity in and of itself. If you're going to be a successful handicapper this year, one of the first things you have to do is forget about much of the 2001 year. Yes, there will be some strong revenge situations to consider as the season goes on, but remember, revenge usually works best "when you have the guns." If a team is out to avenge a particularly bitter or costly loss from last year, victory (and, more importantly, the pointspread cover) might be hard to come by if the vengeful team doesn't have the material, balance, or coaching to get the job done. All psychological and/or technical edges must be reviewed against each team's strength and "chemistry" at the time of any rematch. Otherwise, you risk missing the Marylands of 2001.

Don't be wedded to the number of "returning starters" in college football. Few angles are overemphasized more often these days near the beginning of a college football season. Yes, awareness of the number of returning starters is a good point of departure to start your initial analysis of a team. Sportscasters love to talk about the "returning starters" number because it is so simplistic (often like the announcers themselves), and so easily quantifiable in black and white as a means of comparing opposing teams. Unfortunately, most football wagers involve a calculated guess delving deeply into the "gray area," not the black and white; otherwise, we'd all be rich.

It is my opinion that these returning starters lists can be very deceiving in the first place, because just about every team uses dozens of players in every game to fill out their now-so-common multiple offensive and defensive sets. Too often, all-league-caliber players are not listed as "returning starters" because they suffered a season-ending injury the previous year. When your no-brainer totals of "returning starters" listed in many preseason magazines do not include the return of a team's best player, or improperly includes an ineligible or injured player, it's time to recalculate. Moreover, some college teams might play 15 games this year! So, after a team gets two or three games under its belt, focus on its current players, not on how its returnees were doing at the end of last year.

Be open-minded in your search for new "impact players." Brett Favre sat on the bench in Atlanta in his first year in the NFL - and he threw the ball all over the place in his first year as a starter for the Packers. Now, he owns three MVP awards and is a sure-fire Hall of Famer. The point? It took him a while to develop into a major impact player, but he didn't come out of nowhere. Contrarily, Marshall Faulk was an instant success in the NFL. Current Ram teammate Kurt Warner seemed to be an instant success three years ago, but that was only after being cut several times, bagging groceries for a while, and then working his way up from the Arena League and NFL Europe. Just because you've never heard of a player doesn't mean he can't be a big money maker. Simply put? If a guy is doing the job, he's doing the job. Don't complicate the situation.

Just because someone has a lot of talent doesn't mean he's a good player. Quarterback Ryan Leaf had ideal size and a powerful arm. Yet, because of his prima donna attitude, poor work habits, and inability to blend with his teammates, he turned out to be perhaps the biggest multimillion-dollar bust in NFL history. On the college front this season, Virginia opened some eyes in the offseason by signing the highest-ranked high school defender in the country, thus moving way up in the annual recruiting rankings. So, that should really shore up the porous Cavalier defense this year, right? Hold up on that notion; he's academically ineligible. Southern Cal landed the lauded "Poly Four" from football factory Long Beach Poly. So, is USC back? Only two of the four made it with their grades. Knowledgeable old handicappers will tell you, press clippings don't win games. Poised, well-coached, hard-nosed players win games.

The best players don't always play the best. If the highest-rated players always won, Notre Dame would have piled up another handful of top-five finishes in recent years. Despite its recent downturn, Notre Dame still ranks in the top five in terms of cumulative recruiting over the last six years. But insiders will tell you the Irish focused too much on players who were great in high school, and not enough on players who projected to be great in college. Throw in a few off-the-field problems and some mediocre coaching, and an Irish team that has top-five talent on paper is barely in the top 40 to start this season. During the same time frame, you might have noticed that Northwestern won or shared three of the last seven Big Ten titles, and that the former worst of the worst - Kansas State - was a regular in the holiday bowls, both with recruiting classes far down the list.

Don't overreact to the first month of play. As I said at the outset, this is going to be the longest-ever season. When it comes to forming your opinions and judging the teams for 2002, be patient. Allow a team's new players and new chemistry to emerge. As a reference point in the NFL, please note that after the first four games last year, Carolina was 1-3 and New England was 1-3. The Panthers, of course, never won again. But, the underrated, chemistry-rich Patriots went 12-2-1 vs. the spread the rest of the way in winning the Super Bowl. Keep an open mind. It's a huge asset to handicapping success. The season is so long these days that teams can go through more than one "incarnation" in a year.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every game, exclusive insider reports, statistical breakdowns, handy poinstpread logs, and its widely followed power ratings. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.