Taking Stock

OK, it's now mid-October, and time to get ready for the year-end push to glory. Foxwoods and other major tournaments loom on the horizon. I've been slumping since June, when I tore up the Costa Rica tournament. If I want to end the year positively, I better get going.

My live play has been spotty, up a couple of dimes one night, down the next. Recently, I played an interesting hand. The game was pot-limit hold'em with $5-$5 blinds. I raised from first position with K-Q offsuit. There were six callers for $20 each. The flop came Q-J-10 rainbow - an action flop, and a dangerous flop. I could have been losing lots of ways, but I didn't think the situation was all that dire. I had about $1,500 in front of me and bet out $125 with my top pair and open-ender. Of course, if anyone had A-K, I was drawing thin for a split. But I was confident that with the makeup of the game I was in, I'd find out pretty fast if I was getting crushed. There was one caller, and the guy last to act raised $250 more, which was curious. I know this guy, and he would have raised more or just called with the nuts. He could have raised with two pair, the understraight, or just about anything. I called. I was highly questionable, but I know my players and I was ready to get out if necessary. The other guy called as well. He will play any draw, so I wasn't that worried about him.

The turn brought another queen, and I was feeling pretty good. If the guy I was worried about had the 9-8 understraight, he was going to be hard-pressed to call my $1,100 bet. And that's exactly what I did, put in $1,100. The guy in the middle folded, as expected. Then, my remaining opponent thought and thought. I'd take a fold here every time. But if he had what I thought he had, and his lengthy deliberation made me think he had the 9-8, I had lots of outs - 17, to be exact. Any ace, king, queen, jack, 10, or 9 would do the trick for me. He raised me my last $85, and had the 9-8. A 5 came on the end. Oh, well.

The questionable part of my play was the bet and subsequent call on the flop. That's debatable. But my play on the turn was good, I think. Hmm.

I'd really like to bank some major tournament dough by year's end. I feel pretty good about my tournament skills.

I notice that lots of players pause excessively long when they have huge hands. This is a strong tell, I think. The danger is that some players pause excessively long when they're trying to get up the courage to make a major bluff. Knowing your players is key in these situations.

Poker is like driving; everyone thinks he's in the top half in terms of skill. But, someone has to make up the bottom half. I just hope I'm not that someone.

I'm going to be making some judgments about my game and my future based on the next few months of play. I need to decide if I can pursue this game as a profession, at least for a while. And by that I mean, can I make a living at poker? I'll get back to you with the results.