Bye Weeks in the NFL: Be Careful!

For the past several years, the NFL has scheduled at least one off-week per team each season. Among other things, the long July-through-December schedule of training camp and the regular season takes an enormous physical toll on the players in such a violent sport. And for a wild-card team that reaches the Super Bowl, another four games are required of the players. So, the powers that be in the NFL instituted in-season "bye" weeks to give the players a break.

And, three years ago, when the expansion Cleveland Browns joined the league, there were 31 teams, so at least one team each week wouldn't have a playing partner anyway. It was a chance for the players and coaches to rest and rejuvenate.

Quite naturally, players, coaches, writers, announcers, talk-show guys, and amateur analysts on TV jumped to the conclusion that this week off would be an obvious advantage for a "bye" team when it returned to action and faced a team that did not have the week off and thus remained caught up in the meat grinder that is the long NFL season.

Their reasoning was simple and obvious. The "bye team" players could rest, refresh, and let their minor injuries heal. The coaches could get a little more sleep, study the films of their upcoming opponent more thoroughly, and add some new wrinkles. For the next game, the bye team figured to be better rested, better prepared, and healthier. It almost would seem unfair when a team that had the week off the previous weekend played a team that did not.

In handicapping terms, that kind of thinking would be wrong. In fact, it has turned out that teams coming off a bye week are at a disadvantage (in regard to the pointspread) when facing a team in the midst of its normal routine. Over the last three seasons, teams coming off a bye week, when facing a team that did not have a bye the previous week, are only 30-46-1 vs. the spread! That's 39.5 percent, which is not good.

And, in fact, the weakest performers vs. the spread among bye teams are the teams that would figure to be the strongest! Over the last three seasons, bye team home favorites are only 8-24 vs. the spread when facing a nonbye team.

Seeing such bye teams fail repeatedly vs. the spread over the years called for further research from my home office at The Gold Sheet in Los Angeles. After a few weeks of questions directed toward our "scouts" in the home areas of the NFL teams, we put together the collected information and were able to reach a few conclusions.

It turns out that rather than being more focused after the rest, rehab, and extra preparation time, most of the bye teams were actually less focused than their upcoming nonbye opponent. Most head coaches were choosing to give their players, assistants, and themselves two, three, four, or more days off. A few coaches gave their players the entire bye week to themselves. Even with only a few days off, many players were engaging in activities such as minivacations, hunting or fishing trips, short getaways with new spouses, or visits to out-of-town family members or friends. It was often the case that players hadn't seen their mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, close friends - and sometimes even their wives - since before training camp began in mid-July! These visits turned out to be good for renewing important acquaintances, but bad for keeping football focus.

It was very often the case that players had a hard time immediately regaining the intensity needed to compete upon their return, and especially to carry a favorite's pointspread in the first game back. Despite any physical renewal or mental freshening, regaining one's focus proved to be very difficult. Despite their fresh legs, their "mental quickness" was often lacking.

It was also quite often the case that a bye team was re-entering the NFL fray against a team that was coming off a stinging loss and was eager to get back on track, or a team with lots of positive momentum going for it that was playing with a very efficient rhythm. Against such an opponent, a team coming back from its bye week was often at a disadvantage on the scoreboard early in the game.

In a rugged, physical, collision sport like NFL football, the players pay a tremendous price. They have to prepare themselves physically and gear themselves up mentally to pay that price week after week. They have to push themselves to the edge. When they alter their in-season routine and change their focus, they often have a hard time regaining that edge, especially in the first game back, and even more so against a team in a groove.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every game, exclusive insider reports, handy pointspread logs, widely followed Power Ratings, and its Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.