Midseason Checkpoints

By the time this issue hits the stands, the 2002 football season will be 2 months old. Unfortunately, many excellent wagering opportunities will be gone. But fortunately, this is the longest football season in wagering history, in terms of both the number of days and number of games. So, many high-percentage situations should still present themselves.

Therefore, now is a good time to stop, review, and reflect upon how you've done so far. Here are some thoughts on how you can improve your performance in the second part of the season and down the stretch.

Go where you've been winning. Inevitably, you've likely been doing better in one area than the others. Maybe you've done better in the colleges; maybe the NFL. Maybe you've had a good feel for the totals. Maybe you've had a better touch with the underdogs than the favorites. (If you keep a list of your plays, you will know this. If you don't chart your plays, you should start - unless, of course, you're not serious about winning.) The point is, you should emphasize areas where you're winning. That doesn't mean you shouldn't delve into the other areas. It just means you should do so advisedly, and monitor the results. Once again, if you track your own plays, it will become apparent whether you're beating your head on a wall or are warming up in another wagering category, which would be a good thing.

If you're doing particularly well in one or two categories in comparison to the others, you might consider increasing the size of your betting unit in that area, or adding an extra play if it's a game "on the bubble" of your selections that week. Or, you might decrease the size of your betting unit for games that fall into negative categories for you.

If you're ahead, increase the size of your betting unit. I don't mean doubling, tripling, or quadrupling it. I mean increasing it gradually, as the size of your wagering bankroll increases. (Please tell me you have a sum of money set aside exclusively for wagering that you do not need for anything else. If you need all of the money you're earning for food, rent, health insurance, credit card payments, and so on, you shouldn't be wagering.) If your wagering bankroll has been decreasing, you should be reducing your plays until your "finalyzing" gets back on track. Hey, maybe it won't be until next year. If so, it would be good to still have some of your wagering bankroll left after a down season. One of the big keys to winning in sports betting is to be averaging more than one base-betting unit per game on your winning plays.

If you're losing, decrease the size of your wagering unit and/or decrease the number of your weekly plays. Don't make things worse than they already are if you're losing. Don't double the size of your bets (which is very stupid) in an attempt to get even, or because you think you're "due." (The Chicago Cubs are "due" to win a World Series, but I'll bet you're not picking them next year.) Don't add low-percentage plays to your list after the ones you thought were high-percentage plays didn't work out. Don't chase your money. Don't force the action. Be patient, and "let the games come to you." If you know football, and if you know pointspread value, things will eventually start going your way. Once you start hitting a winning percentage again, you can begin increasing the amount of your wagers or your number of bets per week. Once that happens, it's good that you have money left in your bankroll, and not be broke.

If you're way down, you should consider taking a break. Hey, take a week off from wagering. Take two weeks off. Observe the action. Study the players and the stats. Get rearmed with information. Make a few "mind bets" to retest the waters. Take a minivacation. It rarely hurts to be refreshed. If your finances are scraping the bottom of the barrel, stop until you've built a new bankroll that is specified for wagering entertainment, and, again, not needed for anything else. You wouldn't be the first handicapper to run into a slump. One of the worst things you can do is to be stubborn about it and continue to force the action when you're on a losing jag. Most sports bettors I know are very stubborn. It's not a good trait to have.

If you're under extraordinary stress, back off. Few things disrupt one's logical thought process more than stress. It can come from anger/frustration from losses, from work, from marital/family problems, or from health problems. I predict you will be off track and pick a very low percentage of winners if you are under stress. A regular routine, with plenty of time to read and analyze information, followed by a period of relaxation, is the most compatible for picking winners. Stress is the enemy of sound handicapping and decision-making.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every game, exclusive insider reports, handy pointspread logs, its widely followed Power Ratings, and its Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.