Early Edges in Conference Play

The college basketball season has been under way for a month and a half. But, coaches will tell you that the real hoops season doesn't start until conference play tips off. And, except for a few scattered games here and there, that happened very recently.

Many college coaches believe the nonconference campaign is much like the NFL exhibition season. Until January, the college schedule is filled with games that include holiday tournaments, intersectional mismatches, some regional rivalries, and a bunch of made-for-TV matchups to help fill airtime as the football campaign winds down.

When league play starts, much of the experimentation comes to an end. The number of players seeing substantial minutes is decreased, and the defensive intensity is increased. That's because the conference title chase is under way, and coaches know that NCAA berths, favorable postseason seedings, and often their jobs are at stake.

As a handicapper, I enjoy the extra intensity of the conference races, because it often makes the games more predictable. In sports betting, that is a good thing. Here are some reminders for early in the college regular season.

Look to go against young teams in early road games. Remember, most freshmen are away from home for the first time by just being in college. Playing on the road in the many hostile arenas across the country is a new experience for them. Many preconference games are not sellouts, especially if the students are on semester or quarter break. The crowds on the road usually get much rowdier and nastier in the conference campaign. The home fans shout terrible things at the opposing players. It takes newcomers a few road games to develop thick skins and "lose their hearing" a bit. Turnovers increase; shooting percentage declines. Also, travel on the road - with its many bus rides, plane rides, hotel rooms, and team meetings - tends to either unify teams by developing friendships or fractionalize teams due to clashing personalities.

Beware of going with too many conference road favorites early. Many of the reasons noted above apply. But even if a team has done well on the road in preconference games, it is likely to have problems early on the conference road. Returning coaches and experienced players on the home team are familiar with the opposing team's coach and style, the visitor's offensive and defensive schemes, and the strengths and weaknesses of the returning players of the road team. Conference home dogs tend to do better early in the season than late in the season, when visiting teams have lots of road games under their belts.

Be especially alert for early home teams seeking revenge. If a competent home team lost the final meeting between the two teams last season, especially if it was in the conference tournament, you can be sure it will put forth a concentrated effort. Also, good coaches will adapt after a loss (it's a sign of a good coach). They will dissect a loss more closely, looking for weaknesses in a foe that they might be able to exploit, or for a way to diminish a foe's strength. They also like to spring surprises in early conference games - tactics they practiced, but did not show in earlier games.

If a road team lacks good shooters, go against it in early conference games. Until road teams get their bearings in conference play, you can be pretty sure they will fall behind at some time in early road games. If the visitor lacks good shooters, catching up is likely to be difficult. Big men tend to get fewer calls on the road, so it's often up to a team's shooters to carry more of the load. If the visitors aren't good at it, they often never catch up. And, when they try to overcome a deficit late in the game by increasing the tempo and taking more three-pointers, the situation often gets worse and worse.

If a team loses its first two conference games on the road, look for it to play "triple tough" in its conference home opener. No team wants to start 0-1 in league play, much less 0-3. Also, if a team starts out 0-2 in the conference season, with both losses on the road, it's usually the case that the pointspread for its home opener will be very fair. A good team in a good situation with a good pointspread is often a high-percentage play.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every hoop game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.