Coaching and the Super Bowl

The NFL's biggest game lends itself to analysis, both before and after the event. Of course, from the handicapping perspective, the most useful is the analysis done before the game, not in hindsight.

However, the perspective of history provides an interesting overview of Super Bowl results. Because the Super Bowl has become such an unusual, overhyped contest, it's good to have a strong leader in command to help a team win the game itself. My general theory is that weak coaches do not win Super Bowls. If the pointspread is small, I prefer to have the better coach on my side, whether his team is the favorite or the underdog.

For example, going into this season's Super Bowl XXXVII (37, for you non-Romans), fully 20 of the previous 36 Super Bowls have been won by eight acknowledged coaching greats - Vince Lombardi (2), Tom Landry (2), Don Shula (2), Chuck Noll (4), Bill Walsh (3), Joe Gibbs (3), Bill Parcells (2), and Jimmy Johnson (2). Weeb Ewbank won another. Highly respected coaches such as John Madden, Dick Vermeil, and Mike Shanahan (2) account for four other titles. Combined, that's a total of 25 of the 36 won by Hall of Fame coaches or by guys who will get plenty of votes in the future.

The coaches in the above two groups were on the losing side in a total of only 10 Super Bowls, six times against one of the other "greats" (or near-greats).

There is a pattern here. It points back to my general theory: Weak coaches do not win Super Bowls. The likes of John Rauch, Red Miller, Ray Malavasi, Forrest Gregg, Sam Wyche, Bobby Ross, Jim Fassel, and Mike Martz all tried, and failed. Dan Reeves and Marv Levy have lost four apiece. They were (or are) all fine coaches in their own right; after all, they managed to get their teams that far. But if you don't agree with me that the guys in this paragraph have always seemed to lack that "special touch" to get their teams over the hump, we could have a long conversation reviewing some of the big-game mistakes they've made.

The point is that the outstanding coach, as proven over time, repeatedly beats the weaker coach in the biggest game. Somehow, the superior coach knows how to prepare his team better; how to keep the players focused during the incredible Super Bowl distractions, hoopla, and media onslaught; and how to get his players to make the decisive plays with the championship on the line. Some outstanding coaches never develop this knack.

As this was being written, the 2003 playoff season was just about to get under way, with the following coaches in the playoffs: Dan Reeves, Atlanta; Jim Fassel, N.Y. Giants; Steve Mariucci, San Francisco; Mike Sherman, Green Bay; Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay; and Andy Reid, Philadelphia, in the NFC; Butch Davis, Cleveland; Tony Dungy, Indianapolis; Herm Edwards, N.Y. Jets; Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh; Jeff Fisher, Tennessee; and Bill Callahan, Oakland, in the AFC.

As George Seifert (2) and Barry Switzer (1) proved with their Super Bowl titles, terrific players are a huge edge in winning championships. But, the better players directed by the better coach is usually an unbeatable combination in the big game. Giving you a chance to laugh at me and to send me stinging e-mails after Super Bowl XXXVII, I believe Gruden, Reid, Davis, Fisher, and Cowher are the top coaches in this season's group, even if the material they're working with might not be strong enough to go all the way. I will be somewhat surprised if one of the others wins the Super Bowl, although I believe third-year Packer boss Sherman and first-year Raider coach Callahan have terrific QBs and have demonstrated interesting ability in their very young head-coaching careers.

Without a clear, definite Hall of Famer in the 2003 Super Bowl coaching group, maybe Reeves, Fassel, Mariucci, Dungy, or Edwards might break through. After all, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick are the last two Super Bowl coaching winners. And, keep in mind that Super Bowl victories and coaching greatness kind of go hand in hand. Coaches such as Noll, Walsh, and Parcells didn't earn the "great" adjective until after they began racking up the titles. Who's next?

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.