Edge: Know it When You See It

It's the edge; net edge; edge after all adjustments; edge that has an impact on future hands. When you get right down to it, you can't quantify edge, because the number of variables, in all their situation-specific permutations, is so huge that it boggles the mind. And it's not like you have a lot of time to sit down with a pencil and scratch paper and figure it out. When the action's to you, you gotta know - right then.

Figuring edge confounds players. But, it's sort of like what the Supreme Court chief justice said about pornography: "I might not be able to define it, but I know it when I see it." And if you wanna cash at the end of the night, you need to know edge when you see it. I have stated my edge thing in a number of different ways: Multiply your edge by the volume of money bet. Put the product in a column. That's your expectation on the money you've risked, in pure dollar terms. Add up all the products (or subtract if they're negatives) in that column, and after a statistically significant number of trials (the number of trials that might be is a subject for another day), expectation will equal earn.

Volume is easy. It's just the amount of money you risk. When your edge is positive, you want more volume. When your edge is negative, you want less volume. When your edge is highly positive, you want lots more volume, and when highly negative, you'd like your volume to be zero with your cards in the muck. Manipulating volume is a key poker skill, but it's one that's not too tough to master. Of course, the trick is recognizing approximately how much positive or negative edge you have at the point of decision - knowing it when you see it.

We're not just talking pure mathematical edge here, based on the holdings of the players and the number of known and unknown cards. That's easy, and there's lots of poker literature addressing it. Math edge is only part of the whole. We're talking all kinds of edge, from positional to psychological and everything in between. It's a hard thing to put your finger on, let alone assign a number to it.

Anyway, I'm sitting in a jammin' $30-$60 hold'em game at Bellagio. The Saturday night crowd is just whooping it up and gambling away. Most of the regular Vegas pros have climbed in their cars and headed down Interstate 15 to L.A., where Commerce Casino's L.A. Poker Classic is in full bloom. While they're off looking for greener pastures, the view from where I'm sitting is just as green as it gets. And for obvious reasons, green is one of my very favorite colors.

I've settled into my game and gotten to know the players, just about every one of whom is in Vegas from out of town to have a good time. I'm on the button, and everyone folds around to the player three to my right, who flat-calls. The guy right behind him pops it up. The player in front of me calls. I peek down to see K-10 offsuit.

My first inclination upon seeing a porker like that in a situation like that is to flick it into the muck without too much thought. That inclination is stronger when somebody has called a raise. And it's stronger still with players yet to act - in this case, the blinds. Even when I'll have position throughout the hand, K-10 offsuit in that spot pretty much sucks. If any of my opponents holds A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, 10-10, A-K, K-Q, K-J, A-10, or even K-10 (leaving me drawing at half the pot), my hand is in deep trouble. That is a mighty wide range of holdings, and the likelihood of an opponent holding one of those hands goes up if the pot is raised, and goes up even more with each caller. It's pretty hard to have a positive expectation in that spot.

But you gotta love Vegas. Here in Sin City, sometimes players fall into the cardroom from the casino pit like gifts from the gods, with pockets full of cash. Lots of them have never played outside a home game - and some have never even played at all. But, hey, they're in Vegas to have some fun!

In this game, the opening caller had played every hand dealt to him. He had won the previous pot by calling a raise with K-5 offsuit. The raiser had raised any hand he played, which was most of them. I had seen raises from him with hands as weak as 9-7 offsuit. The caller in front of me was drunk and played 'em all. With J-8 offsuit or better, he raised for value; with any lesser holding, he simply called. Both of the blinds were calling types who had shown little aggression, and also little interest in folding a hand. They found out on the end if they won, just as they would at the blackjack tables. It was all gambling to them, and whatever card might come was just gonna come. None of these guys had a clue. Perhaps best of all, their after-the-flop play was just as poor as their preflop play.

This, of course, brings us back to edge. In this situation, my hand's edge might or might not have the best of it, but it is irrelevant. You want to loosen up your starting-hand requirements when your opponents play poorly. Since you have more to gain when you hit your hand, you can justify more risk. The edge you can gain after the flop can make up for a lot of preflop deficit. Oftentimes, the range of hands that your opponents are playing is so large that calling with borderline hands becomes profitable, and if you are making better decisions than your opponents in the play of hands, you are correct to loosen up your starting requirements. Mind you, though, there are several dangers here. If you take this too far, you will find yourself playing just as badly as they are. And there is that oh-so-human tendency to overestimate the spread between your ability and theirs.

So, it's $60 to me. I'm not too worried about the blinds or the limper reraising, and I override my natural instincts and slip six chips into the pot. Both blinds come. The flop is Q-7-5 rainbow - a clean miss. If any of these jokers even rattles his chips, this piece of cheese is in the muck like a missile. But, yee-ha, the boys check it around. It takes me about a nanosecond to analyze that no pot at this table is for sale. I do a quick Cooke recheck of my thinking (I never trust my first decision; I pretty much always figure there's a better move if I just think a little harder), and delightedly knuckle the table. What the heck, I think to myself, a free card can be as good as a free lunch.

An offsuit 9 hits on the turn, giving me a gutshot-straight draw. The small blind lets $60 into the field. The big blind surprises me and folds, and the other three players in front of me call. The pot is currently laying me 10-1 on the gutshot. (There's that pure math part of the edge thing.) If I hit the gutshot, I know I'll get additional action from this field. None of these guys can fold a pair. And a king or even a 10 on the river might be good, adding value to the equation (more math). I put my $60 in.

The river brings a king. The small blind checks, the opener checks, and the original preflop raiser bets, folding the player in between us. I call, the small blind folds, and the original limper overcalls. The bettor turns over K-8 offsuit, the limper mucks, I show my little piggy, and the dealer says, "Kicker plays," and pushes me the pot. I am loving poker.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Creating the largest number in your recurring field in the equation of the recurring sum of the volume bet times the edge is the fundamental cornerstone of poker. It drives every single poker decision I make. To make that sum as large as it can be, you must take all the edges as you find them. A huge part of maximizing edge, and therefore the number in the recurring field, and therefore your hourly rate, and the cash that goes into your pocket, is recognizing and actualizing nonstandard plays that gain equity. When you pass on a play that has positive value, you give up equity to those players who take all edges, whether they can put an exact number on them or not.

Edge: You don't have to be able to define it, but you do have to know it when you see it.

Roy Cooke played winning professional poker for more than 16 years. He is a successful real estate broker/salesperson in Las Vegas - please see his ad below. If you would like to ask Roy poker-related questions, you may do so online at www.UnitedPokerForum.com.