Decisions Down Under

I was reading the rec.gambling.poker newsgroup recently and ran across the following post, which I thought was very thought-provoking. Dan Goldman, who is the VP of marketing for PokerStars.com, experienced it and wrote about it. There is a lot to be found in it that can apply to your poker game, including betting action, pot odds, putting a player or two on a hand, and, most importantly, decision-making. In fact, it breaks down in verbal form what your though process might be during a hand. Here's the post:

I have limited experience playing pot-limit (PL) Omaha high (actually, I have played only about 300 hours of any type of pot-limit poker). I recently spent a few weeks in Melbourne, Australia, during the Australasian Poker Championships, where the pot-limit action was incredible. Here's one quick example: On one of my first hands, I flopped quads on the button, and while I was trying to figure out how I might make a little money on the hand, three players went all in ahead of me.

Anyway, the game was $5-$10 PL dealer's choice, in which the dealer could choose among hold'em, Omaha, and Omaha eight-or-better. This particular hand was Omaha eight-or-better, although the low doesn't come into play.

I limped into the pot from middle position with the A K Q 2. Six of us saw the flop (three to my right, including both blinds, and two to my left). The pot now contained $60.

The flop came Q J 3, giving me top pair, the nut-flush draw, and backdoor nut-low and nut-straight draws. The blinds checked, the next player bet $45, and as I was deciding what to do, a player to my left gave me an indication that he was going to call. I called, both players to my left called, and both blinds folded. The pot now contained $240.

The turn card was the K, making the board: Q J 3 K. While not making my draw, I considered this card to be an improvement for my hand, since I now had top two pair, a gutshot-straight draw, and the nut-flush draw.

The flop bettor checked in disgust (and with this particular player, it was almost certainly not an act). I now made mistake No. 1: I bet the pot, $240, which left me with exactly $1,000.

The player to my left thought for a while. He is a very strong player who clearly has a lot of PL experience. Finally, he just called. Now, the button raised, making the total bet $1,040 (raising $800). This player had never gotten committed to a pot without the nuts while I was there, so there was no doubt of where he was. The flop bettor mucked.

Note here that both players to my left had approximately $3,000.

I now had a difficult decision to make, one that I may have brought upon myself (although, as you will see in a minute, my action may not have changed anything other than the cost of my pot-sized bet). In the best case, I had 15 outs (eight flush cards, two kings, two queens, and three tens), but I determined that this was clearly not the case.

It was possible, and even probable, that I had 12 outs for the whole pot and two or three for a split.

I tried to figure out what the player who called from my immediate left had. I eliminated any hand with Q-Q in it; if he had this hand, he would have put a lot of heat on the flop (because of the straight and flush draws). The only two hands I could imagine he had included K-K or the nut straight with no redraws. If he had K-K, everything changed; instead of having 12 outs, I could have as few as seven.

My gut feeling was that he had the nut straight, but I couldn't distinguish whether this was a real sense or just hope on my part. Assuming that this was true, it was certain that he would call behind me, which was important.

So, my analysis was that I probably had 12 outs, odds against of about 2.7-to-1. There was $1,760 in the pot and I had an $800 call, so I was getting 2.2-to-1 odds, but if the player to my left called, I'd actually be getting 3.2-to-1. This was razor-close, and since I could also tie with a 10, I was very tempted to call. However, I was very unsure of my analysis, and with so little PL experience, I hated to commit that kind of money on such a thin draw; after all, I may not play enough hands of PL the rest of my life for the cards to even out.

After a lot of thought, I finally folded the hand, and the player to my left called.

I then made my last mistake: I stayed around to see the 5 fall on the river, giving me the nut flush. The players to my left went to war, and finally, both of them showed the same hand, having turned the nut straight.

In retrospect, I know how bad my bet was on the turn; in fact, it would have saved me a lot of thinking if I had checked. The player to my left would have bet the pot, and the player behind him would have made a similar raise (probably betting the pot, a total bet of $960). If the action had gone the same way, the pot would have been $1,440 to me for a $960 call, which was a clear fold.

Whether Dan played this hand correctly or not is not what you should take out of this column. Instead, it should give you an understanding of how much thinking goes into the decision-making process during the play of a hand.