When Trends Conflict

In the final weeks of the college basketball season and the stretch drive of the NBA, there are going to be many instances in which strong trends for each team in a game conflict. For a simple example, there's Detroit, one of the best underdogs in the NBA this season, if it were playing games at New Jersey or Indiana, two of the better home favorites this season. Or, if a team such as the Utah Utes, with a fine record as a favorite in NCAA tournament games, were to be paired against Gonzaga, one of the more successful NCAA underdogs in recent tourneys. Or, if a weak road pointspread team in the NBA were to meet a very weak home pointspread team. The examples could go on. What should you do?

Before providing some answers to the question, it should be pointed out that team trends or other systems nearly always should be about the fourth consideration in the handicapping equation, behind basics such as the fundamental strengths of the two teams and player matchups, any major psychology considerations (such as a major revenge motivation, a significant humiliation factor, and so on), and any significant intangible situations (such as extraordinary travel difficulty, a game in which one team might be able to clinch a title or favorable playoff slot, and so on). After reviewing those three factors, it's time to review "technical" situations - not before. (Lots of bettors like to search for the tech trends first in order to make their wagers, because it is a simpler form of decision-making. I disagree with this primacy, because no one has ever shown me that it is successful in the long run.)

After going through the first three steps, here are some considerations if strong positive trends "collide" with strong negative trends:

1. Go with the go-with team, or go against the go-against team in the pairing. Count on the current "hot" team to extend its excellent form by playing through a previously negative situation. Don't trust a struggling team that doesn't have it together to get it together just because it fits nicely into some trend. Or, as one of my late former handicapping mentors used to say, "Don't expect a sick cat to get well. Wait until it actually does."

2. Consult your power ratings and look for any extra pointspread value in the line. You should always use some system of power ratings in handicapping, or you're just asking for trouble. Among the best things they do is help take the guesswork out of handicapping. They help tell you which side might have a pointspread advantage in a matchup. That advantage can help you increase your wager when pointspread value, fundamentals, psychology, and any strong trend might come together on the same side of a contest. These are the types of games you're looking for.

3. Consider decreasing your wager if you're going against a very strong trend. Knowledge of trends is good, even when you might like the fundamental matchups in a game, and a team's positive psychology and other supporting intangibles, as well. If all of those factors line up, and you know you're still wagering against some very strong or very long-running trend, you can decrease your wager a little with the knowledge that it is a potentially "dangerous" situation. If you employ a money-management system (and you should, by the way), it's always nice at the end of the season to have bet a little more on your winning plays and a little less on the more marginal plays that didn't work out.

4. If two very strong trends, or several trends, conflict, consider "passing" on the game. What a concept! You should not need a major "news bulletin" to realize that there are going to be other games on other days. As I've said before, sometimes in sports betting, the best way to double your money on a game is to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket. If you think you're going to "hate" yourself if a "play" doesn't work out, don't make it. (Hate is usually such a negative emotion - but you can talk to your therapist about that.) In fact, chasing your money and betting larger amounts on games at which you're just guessing are two habits that sportsbooks like to see. So, get rid of them. You'll lose more money by going with losing, marginal plays than you ever will in vigorish paid to sportsbooks over the course of the season on a complete slate of better-chosen wagers.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.