Baseball - A Tale of Two Leagues

One of the quirks of professional sports is baseball's silly rules difference between the two major leagues. The National League still plays baseball the "old-fashioned" way, whereby the pitcher has to bat and run the bases (unless he's pulled for a pinch hitter/pinch runner). The American League has employed the designated hitter rule for several decades now, allowing pitchers to focus entirely on their pitching craft, to eschew any bunting or batting practice, and to save themselves from having to run the bases. It also allows intimidators (such as Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, and a few others) to avoid facing the wrath of the opposing pitcher when they push the rules with their "purpose pitches" and "chin music," or any pitcher when he deliberately hits a batter after yielding a couple of home runs.

Also, in the American League, pitchers in a low-scoring game don't have to be removed for pinch hitters, as they often are in the National League. Good pitchers in the American League have the benefit of being allowed to go deeper into a game in a pitchers' duel.

For handicappers, this rule difference between the leagues means that the games must be analyzed slightly differently, and that separate sets of statistics should be kept. Last year's first month of the season in major league baseball made that abundantly clear. (The advent of interleague play requires a third set of stats, but that's not important right now.)

For the first month of play (that is, through April 30) of the 2002 season, there was quite a divergence in the results in the two leagues in several useful sports betting categories. And, in my opinion, the difference reflects the fact that the good pitchers have a bigger advantage in the A.L.

For example, Home favorites in the National League were 68-59 in April of 2002, but were a cash loser on the money line. Home favorites in the American League in April (plus March 31) were a solid 57-36 and a money winner.

Home pick 'ems and home underdogs in the N.L. were a combined 46-33 in April and were a big money-line winner (+$1,985, based on a $100 wager on each home pick 'em and home dog). Home pick 'ems and home dogs in the A.L. were a combined 37-36, and barely got by on the money line.

Sizeable favorites of more than -150 on the money line in the N.L. were a combined 37-25, but -$880 (on the basis of laying the "price" to win $100 per wager). Sizeable favorites in the A.L. were a dominating 43-16, picking up $1,090 (when laying the price to win $100 per wager).

Totals results in the N.L. (through April 30) were 91 "overs," 105 "unders," and 8 ties. Totals results in the A.L. were 89 "overs," 80 "unders," and 2 ties.

The previous four sets of comparisons tell us several things about early-season play in the two leagues, at least when considering how things started out last year.

Counting on a dominating pitching performance is more risky in the National League than in the American. Too often, a National League pitcher is performing very well, but still must leave the game. On the other hand, the value of the last at-bat in the National League in tough games in which the host is a pick 'em or underdog is greater than in the A.L., where top pitchers so frequently go seven or eight innings, yield to a "setup" man for an out or two, then see the highly paid closer come in and finish things up. The pitching vicissitudes of a National League pitcher (hitting, bunting, base running) make things less predictable for the favorite, and often (as shown early last year) that can be beneficial for the home pick 'ems and underdogs, who are often in a position to take greater advantage of those last few innings.

Regardless of the differences between the two leagues, I offer this omnibus reminder for all new seasons in any sport. When it comes to wagering, it is always important to focus on current realities on the field of play. Current performance is more important than how teams and players have performed in the past. And it is far more important than how teams were expected to perform, "on paper," before the start of the season. It's usually the case in sports betting that the teams doing unexpectedly well offer the best value. This is certainly true in baseball, where the money lines are usually set a little high on the favorites, simply because the collective psyche of the public is a preference for the favorites at the start of the year until they begin to disappoint.

Lastly, here's one reminder: For those keeping their own handicapping statistics in baseball (how home dogs are doing, how the "overs-unders" are falling, and so on), I suggest doing so in a fashion that can easily be broken down on a week-to-week or month-to-month basis, because of the long six-month season and all of the injuries and spring-summer-fall weather changes involved.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy or ask about the Late Telephone Service, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.