A 'Refined' Look at the NBA Playoffs

I recently wrote a column about how the "Zigzag Theory" and the trend favoring the "unders" in the NBA playoffs both returned last season.

Since this is going to be the longest NBA playoff season in history (the eight first-round series have been expanded from best-of-five series to best-of-seven), I thought I'd take a closer look at the playoffs from the perspective of recent results.

Here are some other potential beneficial revelations for those who like to wager a few matchsticks in the postseason:

The "unders" have dominated most in the first round. This might prove to be a nice angle because of the expansion of the first-round series to best-of-seven this year. In the past five seasons, the "unders" have led the "overs" in the first round by a combined count of 93-71-2. I always like it when such a trend has a somewhat logical explanation, rather than being a mysterious quirk that seems to "come from left field." So it is with this one.

The first round, of course, involves 16 teams, some of which are youthful or mediocre outfits that had to struggle to merely make the playoff field in the first place, and have virtually no chance of winning the title unless about two dozen all-stars on other teams get severely injured. For the young, improving teams, just being in the playoffs - even if they make a quick exit - can be a valuable part of their overall learning process. It happened to Michael and the young Bulls; it happened with Isiah and the "Bad Boys" in Detroit; it happened to teenager Kobe and the Lakers. The point is, many of the weak or young playoff teams will not score as freely in the postseason against high-quality competition as they did in the regular season against the league overall. In fact, some teams with only one or two good scorers will struggle the entire series. (Remember the brick-tossing in the Detroit-Boston series last year? Only one team ever topped 90 points in five games, none of which went "over.")

When it comes to the Zigzag Theory, it has worked best recently with the road dogs. The zigzag angle is simply to go with the previous game's loser in the next game of the playoff series. Over the last half-decade, road underdogs have proven to be the most successful role for the revenge-seeking teams, going 69-49-3. This coincides with the overall trend in recent years for the road underdogs to outdo the home favorites in the playoffs (more on that in a moment). Over the last five postseasons, starting with 1998, the zigzag road dogs are 15-11-1, 12-10, 15-8-1, 10-12-1, and 17-8 last year.

Home favorites in the playoffs can often be overvalued. It's always tempting to go with the home team in pro basketball, because the home crowds are so highly partisan. There are few visiting fans at an NBA playoff game. The tickets are not split as they are for, say, the Super Bowl or a college football bowl game. The cheering for the home team is nearly deafening at some venues. The "public" usually prefers the home team in its wagers. But with 41 road games in the regular season and a few more in the playoffs, most veteran NBA teams can "hang in there" quite often on the road. Over the last five seasons, NBA playoff road underdogs lead the home favorites 158-137-4. This has generally favored the sportsbooks, who keep the spread on the home teams a little "puffy" unless they know the public is anticipating a complete collapse.

Are the Lakers getting complacent? You could hardly blame them, considering their three straight NBA titles. Jordan's Bulls never won more than three in a row. And the Lakers were far down in the Western Conference standings much of the season. Therefore, one should remember that the Lakers were only 1-9 as a home favorite last year! Yet, they were 2-1-2 as a road favorite and 3-1 as a road dog. They are 13-2-2 vs. the spread on the road the last two playoffs, indicating they can turn it on enough to cover the small numbers, but not very often the bigger ones.

Are the Sacramento Kings the team to watch? After a few frustrating years of chasing the Lakers - and nearly passing them last year until Robert Horry's miracle last-second shot in game six - the Kings seem on the verge. They're 4-1 as playoff home underdogs in the Shaq-Kobe era of the Lakers, 9-3-1 as road underdogs, and 2-1 as road favorites. Are these signs they're finally ready for the big move? Or, will it be tall, deep San Antonio that frustrates Sacramento this year?

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, or would like information on its Late Telephone Service, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.