A-K Against John Juanda

Should I move all in with my Strategies & Analysis A-K suited?

A few months ago, I wrote a column about a hand I lost to the excellent tournament professional Chris Bell. A few issues later, I wrote a column about a hand I won against the excellent tournament professional Brian Haveson. I don't want everyone thinking I'm an expert, so I figure it's about time for another losing hand. This time my opponent was the excellent tournament professional John Juanda.

The event was the World Poker Tour Championship - featuring the second-biggest prize pool of the year. Most of the tables in that tournament are tough, but I drew an especially tough one featuring not only Juanda, but Farzad Bonyadi, Keith Sexton, Jim Bechtel, Noah "Exclusive" Boeken, and several other players who clearly were not rookies. It was not a table where I could sit back and wait for my opponents to make mistakes.

On the last hand before the third break, I was dealt the A K under the gun (UTG). I had $61,000 in chips in my stack, which sounds like a lot, but in that tournament, we started with $50,000. The blinds were $100-$200 with a $25 ante, so I opened for $550. Three players folded, and then Juanda reraised to $3,050. He had about $32,000 left after his reraise. Everyone else folded, eager to take their breaks, and the action was back on me.

Many players to whom I've described this hand have said, "You probably didn't put him on aces when he made such a big reraise." I understand where these players are coming from, but that's not what happened at all. If an inexperienced or weak player had made the reraise, I would've highly discounted the possibility of aces or kings. I knew, however, that Juanda was perfectly capable of making the large reraise with aces or kings, and in fact, I felt fairly sure he would've played those big pairs in exactly that manner. I also felt fairly sure he would've played pocket queens or A-K the same way. The question was, would he have played anything else that way, and if so, what percentage of the time would he have something other than queens, kings, aces, or A-K in his hand?

The only plays I considered were moving in or folding. I didn't consider calling, because I didn't want to play a big pot from out of position against him with a hand like A-K - a hand with which it's hard enough to earn any money, even when you actually hit your flop. I also didn't consider reraising to something like $9,000. Why not? Well, let's say that I reraised to $9,000 and Juanda moved in on me. If I wanted to call, I'd have to put in $26,000 to win $44,500, so I'd need 36.9 percent equity to make calling correct. If Juanda's range when he moves in is aces and kings, I'd have 23 percent equity and have to fold. But what if he also could have queens? Now I have 34.6 percent equity and things are getting close. What if he also could have A-K suited? Now I'm up to 37.7 percent equity, and it's close, but a call. What if he could have queens or better and any A-K? Now I have a whopping 41.9 percent equity, and it's a clear call. Which of the above estimates would actually represent his range? I don't know, but if it's somewhere in the middle, it looks as though calling his all-in bet would be basically a zero EV (expected value) move. As I wrote in the Chris Bell column, I hate putting myself in situations where if my opponent reraises all in, calling and folding are basically equivalent.

So, the decision was, move in or fold. If I moved in, I was fairly confident John would call with kings and (obviously) aces, but would fold anything else, including queens. My EV, then, was F($4,150) - (1 - F)($34,500 - .23($70,500)), where F is the probability that Juanda folds. (I have 23 percent equity when he calls.) Solving, I have a plus EV when F is greater than .82. I need him to fold 81.5 percent of the time for this play to be profitable. If his range is queens, kings, aces, or A-K, he folds only 71 percent of the time, and my all in has negative EV. But, what if his range is queens, kings, aces, A-K, and something else? Let's say he also could have jacks, or A-Q or something odd like J-10 suited. If all of those hands are in his range, he folds 85 percent of the time. If some of them are in his range sometimes, it's still possible that he folds 81.5 percent of the time. I admit, however, that this is reaching, and when I consider all the factors, I think moving in is a slightly negative EV play, somewhere in the area of four-six big blinds in the red. That means I should've folded, right?

Well, I didn't fold, I moved in. John instantly moved his chips to the middle of the table, saying, "I have to call you." I should've responded by saying, "I'd call too if I had aces," because I had absolutely no doubt about his hand once he called as fast as he did. I flopped a king, and turned a second spade, prompting Juanda to tell the dealer, "Whoa, slow down." But, alas, I missed all of my outs on the river and ended up shipping $35,000 Juanda's way.

The thing is, I'm still not done analyzing this hand. Yes, folding has a higher EV than moving in. But, no hand is played in a vacuum. I've already explained why I don't like reraising to $9,000 with A-K suited in this situation. Since that is the worst hand with which I'd consider reraising here, I don't like reraising to $9,000 with anything in this spot. I definitely want to reraise with aces, but I don't want to reraise only with aces. Let's say that I move in with aces and kings. Well, by moving in with kings, I never get a better hand to fold, and I have only 22.6 percent equity when I'm called. I'd rather play kings in such a way that I extract some more value from someone holding Q-Q - probably by just calling the reraise preflop. So, that leaves A-K suited, as the only other hand for me to move in with.

I'm not saying I have to move in with A-K suited to keep my strategy balanced; I'm just saying that moving in with A-K suited some of the time in this situation is probably a reasonable way to balance my strategy, and it enables me to get paid when I move in with aces. (And believe me, I will make the all-in overbet with aces in this spot, as I did with A-K suited.) Plus, this was a close decision, and as I've said before, when a decision is close, I like to move all in and put the tough choice to my opponent.

In summary, I don't think my all-in play was automatic, or even had a positive EV, but I don't think it was a terrible play, either, especially when considered as part of my overall strategy. I also would be happy if I never had to play against John Juanda again, who sized his reraise so brilliantly that some idiot paid off his aces to the tune of $35,000 in chips.

Matt Matros is the author of The Making of a Poker Player, which is available online at www.CardPlayer.com.