There are Forces at Work – Market Forces

French punters have been allowed to back into UK tote pools on major races this season and the net result has been low returns – considerably lower than the starting price – on all French trained runners.

This year’s 2000 Guineas winner, Makfi, was an unconsidered 33/1 shot with all the major bookmaking forms, yet he paid just 12/1 for his win on the tote. Similarly another French trained horse, Special Duty, returned at 5/2 on the tote when landing the 1000 Guineas while her starting price with the bookmakers was 9/2!

These variables should always be exploited. If you have a brain cell in your head, market discrepancies mean a guaranteed profit.

The first time a massive influx of money into a tote pool offered arbitrage opportunities was in 2006 when the Japanese trained Deep Impact was subject of incredible on-course support with the French pari-mutuel (their tote pool) for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

On a day described as the “craziest betting day ever”, €1.6 million was gambled on the star racer at the track’s tote windows by an estimated 5,000 Japanese race fans who queued 50 deep from the moment the pari-mutuel was turned on.

As a consequence, the horse, who was a 3/1 shot with British bookmakers, was trading around the 1/10 mark prerace on the tote. Suddenly the betting world went mad as clued-up punters realised they could back their fancies at the French tote return and if that fancy was not Deep Impact they would receive a price which far outweighed probability.

For example, Hurricane Run was generally quoted at 2/1 in the days leading up to the race but would have paid treble figures if he had won. Eventual winner Rail Link paid 24/1 on the tote yet was quoted at quarter of those odds in the fixed odds markets.

Four years on, history can repeat itself as two Group 1 winning Japanese-trained horses are being targeted at October’s famous race: Nakayama Festa and Victoire Pisa.

I have no idea about the value of this pair’s form (Victoire Pisa won this year’s Japanese 2000 Guineas and finished third in Japan Derby) but it matters none to those who are purely speculating on discrepancies in betting markets which will surely prove sizeable should either of these horses make it to the starting stalls on the day.