Pot Odds 'n' Poker

There are few people who will truly ever master the game of poker, but for all of those who do try; one essential tool that will be definitely required of them is being able to work out and understand pot odds.

So I was thinking, who better than a bunch of lads like us to at least take a look and see what we can come up with in understanding this important part of our game? So my friends, with the bar set as high as it is and with so many people in search of so many answers, let's see how high we can leap in trying to decode this crucial part of the game!

Now it's true that many people have different views regarding pot odds, and rightly so, as there are many ways of looking at it. So, with that in mind, we'll try not to make it too complicated and keep it simple.

First of all – I know that many of you sharks already know this, but for those of you who don't and who might be new to the game; the main jest with pot odds is calculating the amount that you need to put in to the middle/pot, in order to win the amount that's already in there.

However as is often the case with poker; it is nowhere near as simple as that as there are literally dozens of other things that one must also factor in!

For one – you must determine how many cards/outs are remaining in the deck, which you can hit, and will help you make/define your hand. Then by dividing that number of outs by the total amount of money which is in the pot, you can then work out if you are getting the correct odds, which in turn aids you with your decision at that time on whether or not you should call.

A bit confusing I know, so here is an easy example:

Let's just say that only you and one other person see a flop and with $75 in the pot, your opponent bets only $25 making it a total of $100, so it's going to cost you $25 if you want to call/continue with the hand. This means you are getting 4/1 on your money if you decide to call, ($25 to win $100) Ok, fairly straight forward.

Now lets just say in this same example you have an up and down straight draw or as we like to say "you're open ended", so you basically have eight cards that you can hit to make a straight, guaranteeing you a win providing there is no pair or flush on the board.

Right so, at this moment you know five of the cards – the three on the flop and the two in your hand, and from 52 cards in the deck that leaves you with 47. So basically out of the 47 cards remaining, eight are going to make your straight.

Next you divide your eight outs into 47 which is almost 6/1 but remember you have eight outs twice … as you are going to get two goes at hitting one of your eight outs (the turn and the river). So the price you're actually getting (or as they say, your pot odds) is almost 3/1, now for those of you who love your attention to detail, that pretty much works out at 2.90625 to 1. Because if you miss on the turn you are now drawing from only 46 cards on the river unlike 47 on the turn which changes the percentages slightly.

Anyway, so with $25 to win $100 = 4/1 and with your chances of making your straight being 3/1, you are easily getting the right odds and a call is probably in the beckoning.

Again … as you can see this is a fairly simply example, but where it starts to get a bit interesting is when you begin to factor in many of the other important details, like chip stacks, how accurate your read is on this bloke, how have you been running against this guy, do you really need to gamble against him if you think you can out play him in the long run, and also you would put some thought into the projected odds factor as well. Projected odds mean how much more you can win in addition to what's already in the pot should you hit your card and make your hand.

Granted all this has been said before as there's nothing new really, but one thing I can tell you that is rarely mentioned, is the next time you are about ready to call someone based solely on the fact that you are getting the right odds is to realise as you put your money in, that you should probably assume that you are not going to see those chips again!

What .. what are you talking about Ciaran?

What I'm saying my fellow fanatics is that when using our 3/1 example, means that three out of four times you are not going to hit your card and therefore you are going to lose the hand and those chips. So no shame in letting one slide now and again and not always assume that the call is always the correct play. Because I believe it isn't.

Remember as I've said before every situation is different and no two players are the same. If it happens to be that you are in a $50 freezeout and you're a 3/1 dog and you don't really care if you get knocked out or not, then by all means go for it. Or if you happen to have a huge chip lead and you have a chance to take out a dangerous player, then why not – go for it. But if it's the case that you are at the final table in a big event with a nice pay day at stake then you might not want to gamble and take that 3/1 shot as you need all the chips you have, and therefore stay clear of that old mentality that many share, that if you are getting the right odds then you must always call.

I suppose what it comes down to is this – like anything else there's an argument for both sides, but with me I often like to get a lot more than just the right odds because I believe that the maths and the odds don't always break even as you may win the time your in the $50 freezeout but lose the time when playing for a huge title, as the cards, the maths, and the odds have no way of knowing the importance of one tournament over the other and obviously can't determine which is the more important event to you. All they do in the long run is … break even.

All we did here is scratch the surface as there are so many things to banter regarding this topic, so we'll tackle it again soon.

You tell me – what do you think my friends?

Ciaran