The Hands

Here are the 14 big pots we played:

Hand #1

KidPoker (Kh Qs)
Isildur1 (6s 6d)

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker raises to 1000
Isildur1 calls

Flop: Kc-4s-4h

KidPoker bets 1200
Isildur1 calls

Turn 10s

KidPoker checks
Isildur1 checks

River 6h

KidPoker bets 3100
Isildur raises to 9600
KidPoker calls

Isildur1 wins 20,400

Hand #2

KidPoker (Qh 9d)
Isildur1 (As 9s)

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker calls

Flop: 9c 2h 3c

KidPoker checks
Isildur1 bets 500
KidPoker raises to 1400
Isildur1 raises to 2650
KidPoker raises to 9800
Isildur1 calls

Turn Ad

River Ac

Isildur1 wins 20,200

Hand #3

KidPoker (Qc 9h)
Isildur1 (10c Jc)

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker calls

Flop: 9s Qh 4h

KidPoker checks
Isildur1 bets 500
KidPoker raises to 1400
Isildur1 calls

Turn 8h

KidPoker bets 2700
Isildur1 raises to 8300
KidPoker calls

River 8c

Isildur1 wins 20,000

Hand #4

KidPoker (5d 6d)
Isildur1 (10c 8c)

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker raises to 1000
Isildur1 calls

Flop: 9d Qh 7d

KidPoker bets 1200
Isildur1 calls

Turn: Jc

KidPoker checks
Isildur1 bets 2650
KidPoker calls

River: 10h

KidPoker bets 5150
Isildur1 calls

Isildur1 wins 20,000

Hand #5

KidPoker Kd 6d
Isildur1 Js 3s

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker raises to 1000
Isildur1 calls

Flop: Jc Ks 6s

KidPoker bets 1200
Isildur1 raises to 2850
KidPoker raises to 5100
isildur1 raises to 13350
KidPoker calls

Turn: 9s

River: 5c

Isildur1 wins 28,700

Hand #6

KidPoker (10d 10c)
Isildur1 (Ah 3c)

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker raises to 1000
Isildur1 calls

Flop: 5s 2d 4d

KidPoker bets 1200
Isildur1 raises to 2850
KidPoker raises to 5100
Isildur1 raises to 12650
KidPoker calls

Turn: Jd

River: 3h

Isildur1 wins 27,300

Hand #7

KidPoker (Js 4s)
Isildur1 (As 6s)

KidPoker raises to 200
Isildur1 calls

Flop: 9s Qd 10s

KidPoker bets 200
Isildur1 calls

Turn: 3s

KidPoker bets 600
Isildur1 raises to 2350
KidPoker calls

River: Kd

Isildur1 bets 7950
KidPoker calls

Isildur1 wins 29,400

Hand #8

KidPoker (Ad Kd)
Isildur1 (6h 8h)

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker raises to 1000
Isildur1 calls

Flop: 3h Kh Qs

KidPoker bets 1200
Isildur1 calls

Turn: 10h

KidPoker bets 3100
Isildur1 raises to 10350
KidPoker calls

River: 5c

Isildur1 wins 25,100

Hand #9

KidPoker (Kc Qh)
Isildur1 (3s 4d)

KidPoker raises to 200
Isildur1 calls

Flop: 3c Kd 4s

KidPoker bets 200
Isildur1 raises to 900
KidPoker raises to 2200
Isildur1 raises to 3850
KidPoker raises to 9800
Isildur1 calls

Turn: 3d

River: As

Isildur1 wins 20,000

Hand #10

KidPoker (Ah 10h)
Isildur1 (Ks 7s)

KidPoker raises to 200
Isildur1 calls

Flop: 3d 2s 10s

KidPoker bets 200
Isildur1 raises to 900
KidPoker raises to 2200
Isildur1 raises to 3850
KidPoker raises to 12602
Isildur1 calls

Turn: 10c

River: 9s

Isildur1 wins 25,604

Hand #11

KidPoker (6d 6s)
Isildur1 (10h 2h)

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker calls

Flop: 6h 7h 3d

Isildur1 bets 500
KidPoker raises to 1400
Isildur1 calls

Turn: 6c

KidPoker bets 2100
Isildur1 raises to 8300
KidPoker calls

River 7c

KidPoker wins 20,000 ya baby!!!! check me out woot woot! I never lose 11 in a row.

Hand #12

KidPoker (Qh 4s)
Isildur1 (Ac 3h)

KidPoker raises to 200
Isildur1 calls

Flop: Qc 9c 5h

KidPoker bets 200
Isildur1 raises to 900
KidPoker calls

Turn: Ad

Isildur1 bets 1700
KidPoker calls

River: 3d

Isildur1 bets 9150
KidPoker calls

Isildur1 wins 23,900

Hand #13

KidPoker (Qh 8h)
Isildur1 (As Ks)

KidPoker raises to 200
Isildur1 raises to 900
KidPoker calls

Flop: 5d 3s Kh

Isildur1 bets 1200
KidPoker raises to 3100
Isildur1 calls

Turn: 7h

KidPoker bets 7350
Isildur1 calls

River Jh

KidPoker wins 22,700 owned him pretty hard that hand! Finally made a flush... that won.

Hand #14

KidPoker (Jc Ks)
Isildur1 (Ac Kh)

Isildur1 raises to 300
KidPoker raises to 1000
Isildur1 raises to 10100
KidPoker calls

Flop: 10s 7d Jd

Turn: Qc

River: 4d

Isildur1 wins 20,200


That was the last hand of the match. In All in pots I ran 44,000 under par, bringing my 50-100 total to -180,000 under par since I took it on. All in EV only focuses on one aspect of luck, what happens when there are no decisions to be made. For example, if you go all in with 10-10 vs AK preflop and put in 10,000 before the flop, you rate to win about 57% of the time, so your expected value is 11,400. If you win, and profit 10,000, you are 8600 ahead of par. If you lose, you'd be 11,400 below par.


Lots of other factors can determine luck in a match, but the others are difficult to quantify. For example, flushes over flushes, set over set, AA vs KK preflop, etc. That doesn't even factor in how often the river card hits your opponent.

I've been playing poker long enough to recognize when I've been unlucky, or when I just played really bad. When you raise with AA on the button heads up, and your opponent happens to fold every time, that can be annoying too since they'll at least call 2/3rds of the time.

It's frustrating to run like that, but if you want to stay sane you have to just deal with it and move on. Sometimes that's easier said than done.

Daniel Negreanu is the 2004 CardPlayer Magazine and World Poker Tour Player of the Year. He presents his poker strategies in one-on-one virtual training at pokervt.com and writes a weekly syndicated newspaper column.
Read all of Daniel Negreanu's poker blog and poker articles at Full Contact Poker.