Mailbag: Looking at the Clock

Q: I was BB ($600) and held KhKc. UTG+1 LAG ($500) limps CO limps Button (<$100) limps SB limps and I raise to $10. Perhaps on the small side since the table was loosening up with the end near but I can typically play post flop well.

UTG+1 calls
CO calls
Button calls
SB calls
Pot $50

2s exposed and made burn card. With this flop the 2s was a factor. Flop Jc 2h 10h

SB bets out $5
BB (Me) disregards and makes it $40 as I would have regardless.
UTG+1 makes it $100
CO folds
Button all in for less
SB folds
BB (me) thinks through and folds

UTG+1 LAG player I know is not folding to my shove.

My thought process was his range was pretty wide preflop. I narrowed it down to best case to worst TP, flush draw, TP flush draw and top two. Having the Kh and knowing his play I would have shoved. Here is where the nit in me comes out. There are 15 minutes left to play. If he has the top of what I put him on or he wins that 40+ percent of the time there’s not enough time for me to come back and book a win. I fold they show and UTG+1 takes it down with top pair Jh3h flush doesn’t get there.

Too nitty?

Just plain wrong?

Correct thought process?

Incorrect to play according to the clock?

Thanks for any consideration.

A: The answer is (D) Incorrect to play according to the clock.

Do the cards know what time it is? Is money won at the end of the session worth less than money won at the beginning? Is there a prize for being in the black at the end of a session?

A “session” is an arbitrary length of time. Your entire career playing cards is one long session, and your goal should be to be up as much as possible. Passing up profitable calls isn’t the way to do that.

I’ll take that back a little bit. If you assign some value to having a winning night, it will put you in a better mood or whatever, then it’s up to you to decide how much that’s worth. In my mind, it doesn’t mean anything, though, and if your goal is to maximize your profits at poker you’d do well to stop thinking in terms of winning/losing sessions and just look for winning plays.

If you think you had the chance to invest $500 with a 60% chance of winning, then you are passing up about $50 in expected value (fuzzy math here, it’s actually more than that because there’s already a lot of money in the pot too) by folding. Is it worth $50 to you to be able to say you had a winning night?

FWIW, I do think you should have raised more pre-flop. I’m also taking you at your word that it’s going to be profitable for you to get all in here. That seems right to me, but I don’t think it’s really the main point of your question, so I didn’t evaluate it myself. If you want to win money at poker, then play each hand you’re dealt as well as you can and forget about the concept of a “session”.