Glastonbury, New York, and Some Poker Part II

In terms of poker content, you’re not getting much this month, I’m afraid. As I mentioned in my last entry, I’m focussing my short-term plans on gearing up for a Supernova Elite push in 2012.

I’ve switched to my old PC, meaning I can play up to 12 tables with minimal overlap, where I’m limited to 10 at about the same comfort level (winrate) on my laptop. However, for various reasons I’ve not been able to put in any serious grind-time recently, other than the first half of July, which was my most successful period ever – over 11 days and 12k hands, I won ~ $10k at $50/1 and $1/2 PLO on stars, winning at over 70 bb/100.

I wasn’t even running that far over EV, either, though I don’t put much stock in that stat. I was playing very well, I think, finding great spots to barrel, picking off bluffs correctly the vast majority of the time, but perhaps suffering a little winners tilt, getting it in too light, subconsciously believing that I expected to win when all-in.

Which I continued to do. That means is I may have won more than if I was playing better. The same might apply to calling river bets – an opponent might be sufficiently balanced such that I’m making a losing call, but this time he happens to be bluffing – it looks like I play excellent by making a light call, but I’m actually just playing bad.

In any case, I ran superhot and made it count. This year I’m winning ~$23k online, mostly at 50/1 (where my winrate is 25 bb/100 over 72k hands); this makes me happy. My lifetime winrate over 400k hands is 8.7 bb/100, running very slightly under EV. If I could carry over even a third of that winrate to my SuperNova Elite chase next year, I’ll be happy.

My plan is to have a $100k roll by the end of the year (will require a little shot-taking + rungood, gogogogogo WCOOP, EPT London, EPT & WPT Prague) so that I’m over-rolled even for $3/6 ante games, which will be the biggest games I’ll play. I’ll still be mixing in $.50/1 through $2/4, depending on game selection, and I think I’ll still go for SuperNova Elite even if my roll stays the same between now and then.

My biggest challenge will be getting the hands in. That 400k hands is over five years of online play – you certainly couldn’t call me a grinder. The most hands I’ve ever played in a month is something like 40k, and I’m going to need to average about 80k hands/month next year, depending on the stakes. While getting hands in will be tough, my biggest test will be avoiding tilt at the inevitably huge swings I’ll experience as my winrate lowers.

I’m confident that I can make it, but the odds are against me. Not to mention combining the grind with training for next years’ marathon! It only amounts to 25-30 hours of play per week, but you’ve got to consider that it’s not comparable to normal work time – much more intensity, focus and concentration are required than your average job. You also need to budget at least 5-10 hours for study, whether it’s discussing hands and strategy with friends, on the forums, or reading books.

My long-term road map (I know, I know, we plan and God laughs) is to enjoy the spoils of Supernova Elite in 2013, travelling the live circuit and holidaying in lots of exotic locations, and find a new career by the middle of 2014, when I turn 30. It’s not that I don’t enjoy poker – I love it, and for those that are capable, it’s a perfect career for your 20s. But I don’t think it’s a lifetime career, at least for me. I’ll still play, but I’d like to have something more productive in the long term take focus by then. This requires finding another career in the next three years. Any suggestions?

Anyway, enough poker talk for now (jeez, all you guys do is talk about and play poker! Get a life, you addicts!). Olivia (the girl that opened Glasto) and I went to see Derren Brown in July, but as a fanboy, I’ve seen a lot of his previous stuff, and there wasn’t much new in this one – a bit of a disappointment for an £80 ticket.

That’s not to say it wasn’t incredibly impressive, but I was hoping for more, especially as this show had a bit of a buzz around it. I’ll still watch all his stuff, though. If you don’t know who he is – he hasn’t done anything international, preferring to garner huge levels of fame in the UK – search out some of his stuff on youtube. A truly phenomenal performer – not strictly speaking a magician, his genre is known as a ‘mentalist’.

Having said that, the best trick I’ve ever seen was Dynamo moving a tan-line from the wrist to the upper arm. I asked my amateur magician friend (LFmagic) how he thinks that was done and the best he could come up with was ’she’s probably a stooge’. I want to believe!