Go With Your Reads

I often find it strange how a human’s memory works. I have played no-limit hold’em sessions where I have played over five thousand hands, won (or lost) enough money to go to Paris for the weekend; and afterwards I can literally remember not a single hand I played. But then I play a hand, and for some reason the details of it stay with me for months, or even years afterwards.

The hand I’m about to describe occurred a few months ago, against a good friend of mine, Finn O’Sullivan. It occurred in what was supposed to be a very low-stakes home game with some relative beginners, but as is often the way, pots escalated sharply as the night wore on.

We started off buying in for €10 each, with blinds of 5 cent and 10 cent, but a few hours later myself and Finn had about €400 each. The blinds were still tiny, but every pot was straddled preflop, and some of the beginners had been replaced with older, richer and drunker players. Finn plays poker for a living, but primarily plays Omaha.

I had direct position on him for the whole night, which made my session much easier than it could otherwise have been. Finn plays poker the way he plays football; he’s loose, aggressive and reckless. This is the type of player for which position is essential. Assuming you know what you are doing, playing a player like this in position is like wrestling a declawed cat. Out of position and you are often better of leaving, or playing a very tight range of hands (while trying not to give that fact away).

This is one of those hands that does not exist within a vacuum. The key to understanding it, and seeing the mistakes made lie in the many hands that Finn and I had been playing up to that point, specifically the weaknesses in our overall strategy. I’ll run through the hand quickly, before talking about what had happened up until that point.

I straddled under the gun for 20c. (You straddle without looking at your cards) Almost everyone called this, including Finn who was the big blind. I made it €1 to go with black aces. Jenny, another friend of mine, called as did Finn and another player.

The flop came up A-6-9 rainbow. This is a good flop for my hand, but hard to get much action on. Since Finn flat called the extra 10c before I raised, he will never have flopped a set or a good 2 pair (As he would of raised himself with any pair, and probably most aces) Jenny or the other player might have, but it’s pretty unlikely.

Still, you are always better off trying to build the pot here rather than laying a trap, hoping someone is foolish enough to bluff the river for a few euro. So I bet €3.50.

Both Jenny and Finn called. Finn’s range here is incredibly wide. (I’ll go into more detail on this in a minute), as is Jenny’s. The turn is 8, putting a flush draw on the board. Finn checked to me, I bet €10 into the €14.50. Jenny called and then Finn made it €45.

I called the check-raise and waited for the river. It was a blank. Finn bet 75. I tanked, wanted to fold and then talked myself into staring intently at Finn hoping to get a read. (I’m not much of a live player, so this is mostly pointless except against beginners). After a while, mostly to show people at the table I wasn’t messing around I announced that I wasn’t going to raise, just fold or call, and showed my top set. I waited some more, observed that Finn was breathing heavily (does that mean I should fold or call?) and then called. On the face of it, this seems like an easy call. Maybe even a re-raise on the turn. But it wasn’t.

Up until this point Finn had been playing very loose and pretty aggressively. But all of his aggression had been when he had had the initiative. We had played a lot of hands together at this stage, and he had been out of position for almost all of them. He hadn’t check-raised any turn or river against me before. So although to the untrained eye he was playing pretty loose-aggressive, he was actually playing a little predictably in certain spots. In any hand like this up to this point he was content to call down if he thought I was bluffing, and check-fold any missed draws.

So when he check-raises the turn on this hand one of the following is true:

A) After several hours of playing Finn has decided to try a new tactic of bluff-raising the turn
B) He is checking-raising for value, but with an inferior hand (two pair or a set)
C) He has a straight

The eight is a slightly dangerous card on the turn, as it completes two straight draws. Finn would not fold any of these hands either preflop or on the flop, so they are all possible (7-5, T-7).

Since we have plenty of money behind, calling the turn is easily the best option. Anything else lets him fold his bluffs and give him a chance to get away from worse hands. If the board pairs I can shove the river over his lead, and if it doesn’t I can decide whether or not a call is profitable.

So I called, but unfortunately the board didn’t change. Of the various options above I would allow A, Finn bluffing, a very low probability. Most players don’t suddenly try outlandish moves in the middle of a long session (unless they recently got stuck). The second option needs to be considered though, which is what in the end made me call. I thought he was very strong, but just could not rule out the possibility he had decided to slow-play a set.

I called and Finn of course showed me a straight. I was annoyed at the time, but it shows the weakness a strategy like Finn’s in spots like this. If we played this hand a number of times, he is going to miss the turn a lot and have to fold, sometimes he will hit on the turn and have me fold to the check raise, and other times I will make a house by the river and stack him. It is a very unlikely series of events that lead him to win a big pot.

In order for Finn’s preflop and flop looseness to be justified he needs to be getting the correct implied odds, but this isn’t simply a case of comparing the effective stack sizes with the size of the current bet. You also need to take into account the relative skills of your opponent, remembering who is in and out of position.

In order for Finn to call the flop here he needs to develop a strategy of sometimes bluff raising the turn when he misses, or else he makes it too easy for me to get away from hands (I almost folded top set) and also to barrel him off his draws. As for me, well I should probably go with my reads a little more, and learn how to pair the board.