Focusing On The Long Term

Virtually all poker authorities recommend focusing on the long term, but most players don’t do it. It’s much more natural to focus on the short term. People are “hard-wired” to be more affected by small rewards and punishments that they just received or expect to receive soon than by much larger, but more distant long-term results.

In “The Acceleration Effect,” a chapter in our book, DUCY?, David Sklansky and I discussed this tendency and recommended steps to reduce its destructive effects.

To help readers overcome this and other harmful tendencies, my books contain quizzes and other self-assessment instruments. Occasionally, someone emails me his data and asks for feedback.

One reader’s self-assessments were much more thorough than most, and I asked him for permission to report and comment on them here. He graciously agreed. This one is from “Winners Focus On Long Term Results” in my book, Poker Winners Are Different. I’ll have similar blogs on his self-assessments from other chapters.

HIS RATINGS

He rated himself as 5 (slightly above neutral) on this seven point scale: While playing poker, I am extremely focused on long-term results. I nearly ignore short-term rewards and punishments. (7) Agree strongly, (6) Agree, (5) Agree somewhat, (4) Neutral, (3) Disagree somewhat, (2) Disagree, (1) Disagree strongly.

HIS DISCUSSION OF THE RATINGS’ IMPLICATIONS

His rating is not unusual, but his discussion of its implications is much more thorough than most. Since I’ve edited it to make the teaching points clearer, I’ll omit quotation marks. To preserve their context and make them easier to see, I will insert my comments into his text IN CAPS. I am not “shouting.”

I find myself often pulling out of games when I’m ahead. I need to address my feelings about winning being critical to my self-esteem.

I’M DELIGHTED WHENEVER A PLAYER ADDRESSES FEELINGS, ESPECIALLY THE DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS THAT PROTECTING SELF-ESTEEM HAS ON RESULTS. I BELIEVE THAT TRYING TO PROTECT OUR EGOS IS EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE FOR ANYONE, AND IT’S DEADLY FOR SERIOUS POKER PLAYERS.

I hate to give back a win and hate to go home a loser. NEARLY EVERYONE FEELS THAT WAY, AND IT HAS SEVERAL DEVASTING LONG-TERM EFFECTS. FOR EXAMPLE, MOST PEOPLE PLAY MUCH LONGER WHEN THEY ARE LOSING THAN WHEN THEY WINNING. WORSE YET, THEY MAY TAKE FOOLISH RISKS SUCH AS OVERPLAYING THEIR CARDS BECAUSE THEY ARE DESPERATE TO GET EVEN. IT’S JUST PLAIN STUPID, BUT VERY NATURAL.

There are several components of this I must both ponder and then come to grips with.

1. Do I feel the need to bolster my self-esteem by ensuring a win? ALMOST CERTAINLY, BUT – UNLIKE MOST PLAYERS – YOU’RE WILLING TO ANALYZE THIS NEED AND ITS EFFECTS. BECOMING WILLING IS THE FIRST AND MOST ESSENTIAL STEP TOWARD GAINING CONTROL OVER THE EFFECTS OF THESE FEELINGS. THE PEOPLE WHO REFUSE TO EXAMINE THEIR FEELINGS REMAIN HELPLESS.

2. I can easily afford the downside financially, but why can I take a loss of tens of thousands in the market, but feel much worse if I tank for a few 100s at the poker table? MANY PEOPLE – INCLUDING ME – FEEL THIS WAY. POKER LOSSES ARE MORE PERSONAL THAN INVESTMENT OR BUSINESS LOSSES.

BUT IT’S NOT JUST POKER. IT’S MOST GAMES. FOR EXAMPLE, LOSING A TENNIS MATCH “FOR FUN” (I.E., WITHOUT A BET) CAN SEVERELY UPSET SOME PEOPLE. A POPULAR POSTER SAYS, “TENNIS ISN’T A MATTER OF LIFE AND DEATH. IT’S MUCH MORE IMPORTANT THAN THAT.”

WE PLAY COMPETITIVE GAMES PARTLY FOR THE KICK OF “PROVING” SOMETHING ABOUT OURSELVES. WHEN THE RESULTS SUGGEST THAT WE’RE NOT AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT, IT HURTS.

3. Could it be that there is no way to really deny that I am the cause of my own downfall? If I lose $10,000 in the market or many thousands on an individual stock, I can easily rationalize that market conditions or unseen economic factors caused my loss. IT IS A RATIONALIZATION BECAUSE LUCK HAS MORE EFFECTS ON POKER RESULTS THAN UNSEEN ECONOMIC EFFECTS HAVE ON STOCK MARKET RESULTS. IN ADDITION, LUCK IN POKER IS MUCH EASIER TO QUANTIFY THAN UNSEEN ECONOMIC FACTORS. QUITE A BIT HAS BEEN WRITTEN ABOUT THIS POINT. SEE, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN GENIUS FAILED, THE BLACK SWAN, AND THE BIG SHORT.

4. I logically can come to grips with the swings of the game, but why is it that I have such a visceral aversion to the downside that I will stop playing when I have such a noticeable edge? THAT’S THE MOST IMPORTANT POKER QUESTION. YOU, I, AND EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD OBVIOUSLY PLAY LONGER WHEN WE’RE WINNING THAN WHEN WE’RE LOSING, BUT THE DATA INDICATE THAT MOST OF US DO EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE. WE HAVE TO LEARN TO MINIMIZE OUR GUT FEELINGS AND FORCE OURSELVES TO PLAY LONGER WHEN WE’RE WINNING, BUT GET OUT QUICKLY WHEN WE’RE LOSING.

WE MUST ALSO LEARN TO ANALYZE OBJECTIVELY WHY WE ARE WINNING AND LOSING, AND – MOST IMPORTANTLY – WHAT OUR EV IS NOW. IF WE HAVE AN EDGE, WE SHOULD STAY. IF PLAYING IS NEGATIVE EV, WE SHOULD GO. BUT THAT ASSESSMENT MUST BE OBJECTIVE, NOT WISHFUL.

5. I figure this is a major factor in my reluctance to move up in stakes. I AGREE. YOUR NEED FOR FREQUENT WINS AND YOUR EMOTIONAL REACTION TO LOSSES ARE MORE IMPORTANT TO YOU THAN THE GREATER PROFITS YOU MIGHT, REPEAT MIGHT, MAKE IN LARGER GAMES.

THAT POINT BRINGS US TO THE QUESTION I KEEP TELLING PEOPLE TO ASK THEMSELVES, “WHY DO I PLAY POKER?” FOR MOST PEOPLE THE STANDARD ANSWER, “TO MAKE MONEY,” IS JUST PLAIN BS. THE AMOUNT WE CAN WIN IS MUCH LESS THAT WHAT WE WOULD GET FROM THE SAME INVESTMENT OF TIME AND ENEGY IN OUR PROFESSIONS OR INVESTMENTS.

WE MUST BE PLAYING FOR OTHER MOTIVES, AND – UNLESS WE REALISTICALLY ASSESS THESE MOTIVES – WE WILL TAKE SELF-DEFEATING ACTIONS.

6. I rated myself a bit higher because I know that the upside of this is that I almost always demand a +EV situation. Sometimes I even get up rather than continuing to play when very good player friends of mine sit down. THAT’S EXCELLENT. IT DEMONSTRATES BOTH THE PROPER FOCUS ON YOUR LONG-TERM EV AND A REALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF YOUR ABILITIES. FAR TOO MANY PEOPLE IGNORE THE FACT THAT A GAME IS TOO TOUGH FOR THEM BECAUSE THEY WON’T REALISTICALLY COMPARE THEMSELVES TO THEIR OPPONENTS.

I OCCASIONALLY TOLD FRIENDS, “THIS GAME IS TOO TOUGH FOR YOU.” I HARDLY EVER DO IT NOW BECAUSE THEY USUALLY GOT OFFENDED. “I CAN BEAT THESE JERKS.”

7. Perhaps I should simply look at my poker bank as just another fund which I am the manager of one that must be flexible enough to sway with the winds of variance. This leads on and on and is undoubtedly a huge stumbling block I must chip away at through self-examination and meditation. I DON’T MEDITATE, BUT DO BELIEVE THAT SELF-EXAMINATION IS:
• ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL
• FAR TOO FREQUENTLY IGNORED. THAT’S WHAT YOUR WORST POKER ENEMY WAS ALL ABOUT. SOME READERS LIKED IT; OTHERS HATED IT. THEY DID NOT WANT TO BE TOLD THAT THEY WERE HARMING THEMSELVES.

BECAUSE YOU ARE WILLING TO LOOK CRITICALLY AT YOURSELF AND CONSIDER THE IMPLICATIONS OF YOUR WEAKNESSES, YOU HAVE A HUGE ADVANTAGE OVER PEOPLE WHO WON’T DO IT.

FINAL REMARKS

Let’s switch our attention from him to you. Because all of us are “hard-wired” to feeling strongly about short-term results, we can’t do much about our feelings. If you want to become a winner – at the poker table and other places – you must control the way those feelings affect your actions.

The essential first step is to do what he did: assess your focus and analyze its causes and implications. It won’t be easy or pleasant, but – if you want to become one of the tiny number of consistent winners – you have to do lots of difficult and unpleasant things.