Does Darwinism Apply To Poker?

My book, Your Worst Poker Enemy, contained several chapters about Darwinian evolution in poker. I recently got a Facebook message that disagreed with my basic premise: I had written on page 213:

“Charles Darwin never played poker, but his principles fit our game. He argued that life is always competitive, and that the competition gets continuously tougher. Because conditions change, only the organisms which adapt well can survive, and the survivors become stronger competitors for food, mates, and everything else.

“The same sort of evolution has occurred and will continue to occur in poker, but it happens much faster. Darwinian evolution occurred slowly over millions of years, while our game changes very rapidly. The losers go broke, get discouraged, or quit playing for other reasons. Some new players come along to replace them, and the rapid expansion of poker has multiplied the influx of new and vulnerable players. However – because it’s easier than ever to learn how to play – many of them quickly shift from clueless, to not bad, to competent, and a few become excellent. Because the weakest players leave, and the survivors improve, the competition will continuously intensify, and only players who adapt well can survive. As Darwin noted, it is ‘survival of the fittest.’”

The Facebook message said, “There is 1 thing that I find questionable. You say that poker will change every day; bad players will leave the game and good players will learn more.

“I think that in NL hold’em it’s not the same as in other card games. NL Hold’em is much more popular than stud and Omaha, and I think you can compare losers in NL with losers at roulette or blackjack.

“They are so addicted that they will never leave the game when they have money and don’t like to work at their game because playing good poker is not as amusing as seeing every flop.

“The only way to win for them in poker is the same as roulette or blackjack: just leave the game, but they can’t.

“Can you agree with that opinion, or am I just denying the reality and just hoping players generally will not become better in the future?”

“Because that’s the hope of every poker player who wins in soft games and walks away from tough games.”

Thanks

Len

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I briefly answered his question on Facebook, but this topic deserves more treatment here. First, he made a slight error: I did not say, “bad players will leave the game and good players will learn more.”

Some bad players will leave, while others will become better players. It’s already happened, especially online. Virtually everyone agrees that the games have gotten much tougher.

When NL became popular, some highly regarded authors said that the card rooms were making a huge mistake by spreading it because the bad players go broke more quickly. I was not one of those writers, not because I disagreed, but because I’m not interested in the card rooms’ problems. All I care about is the players’ psychology.

The card rooms did what businesses have always done. They grabbed the immediate profits. For many reasons the poker business boomed. For example, Las Vegas now has more than twice as many card rooms as it did when I arrived here about ten years ago.

At first, the caps on buy-ins protected the weak players from going broke too quickly, but those caps have steadily risen, and a few rooms have removed them. You can occasionally see $1/$2 NL games in Las Vegas with more than $10,000 on the table.

Partly because of the economy, partly because weak players have gone broke or quit for other reasons, the poker business has fallen precipitously. In Las Vegas several card rooms are downsizing, and a few have closed. More will close soon. Because the games have gotten tougher, many players – including some pros – are now playing lower stakes than they did last year.

He wrote, “The only way to win for them [the weak players] in poker is the same as roulette or black jack: just leave the game, but they can’t.”

The addicts can’t quit, but most losers are NOT addicts. At least 85% of all card room players are long-term losers. Most of them are recreational players who are willing to pay to have fun. BUT, when the fun costs too much, they will either quit or learn how to play.

There is a wonderful saying, “You can sheer a sheep many times, but you can kill it only once.” Because the weak players lose so much in NL, especially with large or no caps, a lot of them have already quit, and more will quit in the future. Many of the ones who remain will become better players, even if they don’t work on their games.

And some of them will work. They will read books, watch videos, use hand-tracking software and so on. By chance, my next series of Card Player articles is titled, “Which help should you get.” The first article states, “You’re lucky to be playing now because so much help is available. The old-timers had to learn through experience, a slow and expensive process. With today’s learning tools your learning curve can be immeasurably steeper.”

Because of Darwinian evolution and the improved learning tools, the games today are much tougher than they were last year, and they will get tougher and tougher. You have only a few choices:
1. Improve at least as fast as your opponents
2. Play for lower stakes
3. Watch your results deteriorate
4. Quit

If you disagree or want to add anything, I would very much appreciate your comments.