Will Online Players Become Predators Or Prey?

Hi Everybody,

Some players are debating this question in ways that resemble political and religious arguments. Many people are positive they are right, but nobody has offered any scientifically acceptable evidence. It’s probably impossible to provide such evidence because none of us encounter anything resembling an acceptable sample of players.

I have not played enough online to have a strong opinion, but I certainly believe that online players are tougher. My online results were so disappointing that I stopped playing there, and many well-informed people insisted that online players were much better than B&M ones.

My latest blogs were based on that assumption of superiority, but urged online players to develop a transition strategy. In fact, I’m convinced that they can’t get the full benefit of their abilities unless they analyze the differences between online and B&M play and then adjust to those differences. Not surprisingly, many players disagreed with me.

Several positions have been expressed. Numbers one and two are the most extreme, and the others are more moderate:
1. Online players will easily crush B&M games.
2. Online players are donkeys.
3. Online players have widely varying abilities.
4. Online players are generally superior, but need a transition strategy.

Let’s look at some examples of each position. Because many of them were quite long, I’ve edited them. I’ll use the screen names of people who wrote in the blogs’ “Comments” section; you can easily read their complete comments. Two of the people who emailed me directly or through my discussion groups’ “forums” approved my edits and the use of their names. The third approved the edits, but wanted to be identified by only one initial.

1. Online players will easily crush B&M games.

DeltaChaos wrote: “Regarding players switching from online cash to live cash play, my experience (as a dealer) and my observation of how these games play out tells me that online players should absolutely crush the live cash, especially in games that have no cap to the buy in…

“If internet players stay true to their styles, and play the super-aggressive, no limit games that they’re used to, and they are not hindered by a capped buy-in… they should crush it.”

My friend, “M,” took a similar position: “Most online pros will have no trouble in any games they sit in. The reason for this is simply that the online players have had an insane advantage. The ability to put in up to 40x as many hands per hour (possibly more), in addition to watching videos and participating in online forums and online versions of our live study groups, and all the software available, allows for a massively steep learning curve for the typical online player, even the typical recreational online player.

“So while I, of course, can’t make the blanket statement that 100% of online players will be winners in live games, I would venture that a player losing less than 6bb/100 online figures to be a winning player in most live games. And I think any online player who has a win-rate of 3bb/100 or more online figures to crush any live game he sits in.

Of course, there are aberrations and some people will do poorly in casinos for various reasons… but generally speaking, the average online player, and especially the serious or professional online player, will very easily migrate into live games…

“The statements Dr. Al … made reek of ignorance about how fast a person improves (that’s necessarily improves, not just can improve) his game merely by playing
online.”

2. Online players are donkeys.

Iamluksak wrote: “Most online players do not have a chance in a B&M cash game. A few will get lucky in a tournament, but the ones who play 1-2 to 5-10 will be broke in record time. Has anyone who plays in a regular game at a casino ever seen an online player that was a winning player? Most online players who play where I play are always good for the game.”

After some people had disagreed, iamluksak continued: “The past week at the casinos has been very good for the regular winning players. The internet players forced to play live have been very easy marks. They keep making excuses for getting it all in with the worst of it. I guess they are used to the ‘catch up’ software of internet poker. They seem surprised when they go all in with a weak pocket pair, and run into a small pocket pair like queens, and lose.

“Another thing I notice is the internet players only last a couple hours, and bust out and go home. If you are running your mouth constantly about me, me, me, at least bring enough money to the game to make listening to your bs a little more palatable.”

3. Online players have widely varying abilities.

This position is so obviously true that I’m surprised that so few people have taken it. It’s ridiculous to claim that all online players are experts or donkeys. Their skill must vary in the same way that virtually all human abilities vary. The fact that this position was rarely stated indicates that many people aren’t thinking very well.

Fortunately, some people are doing so. My friend, Cary Darling, emailed our discussion group after other members had expressed more extreme positions.

“First off, I used to love having online players sit down in my live games. Yeah, they ran over the table a number of times using aggression and being unpredictable, but that usually also meant their downfall. Their lack of patience to wait for a ‘real’ hand, or their inability to understand the subtle differences between live players and online players usually got them slowly, but surely feeding their chips back into the hands of those who could be patient…

“As hit and runners these guys were dangerous. They’d make ballsy calls and be willing to coin flip for their stacks, and if they take you down and leave, then, yeah, it sucked. But, as we know, it’s all long term.

“However, these kids that play online are pretty damn bright. After spending a number of hours playing online … I started to see how this actually benefited me when it came time to playing live. The pace is so slow live, those quick decisions I had to make playing online became easier to make live because I had minutes and not seconds. If I was forced to make a decision against someone’s push, I could take as much time as needed until someone called the clock…

“Now will all of them be able to adapt? No, most… of them [lack the patience and humility]…

“The sad truth is … there just aren’t many winning players… This is not to belittle anyone; it’s just the nature of life. There has to be winners and there has to be losers. There are people who can study poker day in and day out and let it consume them, but they are going to die a losing player because they just lack the ability to incorporate that information into their game…

“And even if you are a winning player at a certain level, you’re always going to find a better player…

“[It’s] one reason I decided to give up playing professionally… I saw the writing on the wall. The information I was just then learning [at Cardrunners.com] … the kids on the forums had already moved on and created styles to exploit the one I was learning. So by the time I even got to their new style, or the new theory, I was already a year or two behind, and now going on three… It was quite scary.”

4. Online players are generally superior, but need a transition strategy.

David Cossio sent an email to our group to disagree with M’s statements that online players would easily crush live games.

“Online and live dynamics are pretty different, most online players rely heavily on software like Holdem Manager or Poker Tracker to make their ‘adjustments’ when playing a hand (specially online pros multitabling and making thousands of robotic decisions).

“They know what a raise in the flop means after a large database on the player doing it, they know the % attempt to steal before the flop of a late position raiser; good luck adjusting live to these and many situations with a grand total of 5 hands in their live database about a specific player.

“Table selection online, no problem… online sites can tell me if players in a specific table are winners or losers, where the big fish is seated. Good luck determining how tough a live table is BEFORE playing a hand there.

“Of course, there will be many online players who will crush live, since there are so many of them, just by the law of numbers this has to be true; the ones who won’t will be working at McDonalds soon…

“And, of course, live games are easier to beat than online games, and most intelligent, dedicated online players will continue to be intelligent and dedicated live, but to say online poker players will be live poker Gods … is preposterous.”

It’s Your Choice

I don’t think anyone can make a convincing case that online players will automatically become successful predators or pathetic prey in live games. The ones who switch successfully will do what good poker players have always done: Analyze the situation and adjust to it.

I’ll close by repeating some points I made in my first blog on this topic: It won’t be easy to switch. Many players will switch successfully, but it will usually take time and hard work. Compared to websites, B&M rooms:
1. Cost more than twice as much (in rake, tokes, jackpot drops, food, parking, and gas).
2. Are even more expensive for small tournaments.
3. Have a constantly changing number of players.
4. Don’t have six-max or heads up tables (with a few exceptions).
5. Have far more distractions.
6. Can’t let you use hand-tracking, SharkScope, or other software.
7. Require protecting your cards.
8. Don’t count the pot for you.
9. Require controlling your body language so that you don’t give away information.
10. Require reading your opponents’ body language.
11. Deal far fewer hands per hour.

Adjusting to so many differences can be overwhelming, but – if you don’t adjust – you can’t win. If you want to win, you must adjust well. And that’s what my next project is all about, helping online players to switch to B&M games as quickly, easily, and cheaply as possible.