Poker Strategy -- Andrew Brokos on Folding Out DrawsBrokos Breaks Down a No-Limit Hold'em Hand |
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Andrew “Foucault” Brokos is known for his knowledge of the game and experience in short-handed no-limit hold’em cash games. In addition to cash games, Andrew has also cashed in three consecutive World Series of Poker main events (2006-2008), including a 35th-place finish in 2008, earning him $193,000. An instructor for Card Player Pro (powered by PokerSavvy Plus), Brokos is used to breaking down hands for strategy analysis, and here he discusses a no-limit cash-game hand with Card Player.
The Game
Type: Cash game
Game: No-limit hold’em
Blinds: $5-$10
Stack Sizes
Villain — Button — $2,089.25
Andrew Brokos — Small blind — $2,403.35
Big blind — $528.25
Under the Gun — $2,733.25
Review of the Hand
Preflop Action: Villain raises on the button to $30, and Brokos reraises out of the small blind with J
9 to $111. Villain calls $81. The pot is now $232.
KA: Why did you decide to three-bet this hand?
AB: Because we’re deeper, I’m changing up my range. If we were only 100 big blinds deep, I would probably three-bet him with a hand like A-J offsuit, whereas for 250 big blinds, I’m more inclined to three-bet something like J-9 suited, because when we’re deeper, I’m going to need a stronger hand to get all of the money in. A-J can’t really make that strong of a hand, whereas J-9 suited can make a strong a hand or flop a lot of draws that I’m going to be comfortable bluffing with.
KA: Since you are so deep, it wasn’t a surprise to you that he called, right?
AB: Actually, it was. He had a really high four-betting percentage. He was four-betting around 18 percent of the time that he got three-bet. I certainly thought that if he’s raising from under the gun, he’s probably going to call 50 percent of the time and reraise 20 percent of the time. He definitely four-bets more than most people.
KA: So what are you learning about his hand when he just calls here?
AB: The biggest thing that tells me is that he probably doesn’t have a monster — pocket aces, pocket kings, pocket queens. If he’s four-betting 20 percent of his hands or more than that in this spot, I don’t know that he never slow-plays big pairs preflop, but it’d be a pretty huge mistake to be four-betting that often, and not to be four-betting with his strongest hands. I’m reasonably comfortable assuming that when he flats [flat-calls], he’s got something that he thinks is going to play well post-flop in position, or something that is not good enough to four-bet and get the money in.
Flop Action: The flop comes 9
4 2. Brokos bets $166, and Villain calls. The pot is now $564.
KA: Why did you decide to lead here?
AB: Based on my preflop read, I think I have the best hand. He could have pocket tens, pocket jacks, pocket twos, pocket fours, or A-9. Those are probably about the only hands I could see him showing up with here [that beat me]. I don’t think there are too many hands in his range that are ahead of mine. Also, I’m going to be betting this flop with almost anything that I am three-betting him with, so I’m going to be betting here often when I have nothing. If I had J-8 of spades, I’d be betting this flop, if I had A-K, I’d be betting this flop. I think J-9 is both strong relative to his range, and also strong relative to my own range — certainly enough to warrant a bet.
Turn Action: The turn is the 7
. The board now reads 9 4 2 7. Brokos checks, and Villain bets $315. Brokos check-raises to $876. Villain calls $561. The pot is now $2,316.
AB: I’m assuming I still have a good enough hand to get all of the money in. I think that his call on the flop could indicate a pair smaller than pocket nines, it could indicate one of those few hands I talked about that are ahead of me, it could indicate a draw or a total float. I wouldn’t be at all surprised; in fact, I think it would be correct for him to call my flop bet with A-J, A-Q, or two big cards or something like that, because I’m going to be betting this flop so often. I think he can call this flop with a ton of stuff, a lot which isn’t going to call a second barrel if I bet again, but a lot of which will bluff if I check to him on the turn. I also think he could have clubs or something that would bet if I checked to him. Of the hands that he’s calling with, there are a lot more of them that are going to bet the turn than are going to call a bet if I bet the turn.
KA: Are you basically saying that you are playing for stacks once you make this check-raise?
AB: Yeah, I was going to call him if he went all in. To be honest, I think a check-raise all in might have been better here, but I wasn’t sure he was going to call with many of his best hands if I went all in. It probably would have been better to just go all in, but I made the smaller check-raise thinking that it would be the best way if he was betting a worse made hand than mine.
KA: What are you putting him on after he just calls?
AB: When he just calls me on the turn, I think he usually has a draw. I think if he thought he had the best hand, he’d stick the money in on the turn even if his best hand isn’t very good, even if he has like A-4. If he decides that his hand is the best hand and he wants to continue with it, he’ll put it in on the turn rather than call. At this point, there is $2,300 in the pot, and we have $500 behind in the effective stacks. If he has a hand he thinks is best, he might as well put the money in now, because I’m probably only putting the last $500 in on the river if I have a better hand, whereas if he puts it in on the turn, I would still call if I was on a draw of some sort.
River Action: The river is the Q
. The board now reads 9 4 2 7 Q. Brokos checks, and Villain checks. Brokos shows J 9 for a pair of nines. Villain shows Q 10 for a pair of queens to win the pot of $2,314 after $2 rake.
KA: Why did you decide to check the river?
AB: So, again, when he just called on the turn, I thought he was on a draw. There might be an outside chance that he does have a hand like A-4 and he’s just afraid to put the last $500 in or something. That’s why I checked to him on the river — because all the draws missed. I think he’s a lot more likely to bluff the river than he is to call the $500 with a worse hand. He’s just not going to have a worse hand than mine that is good enough to call very often.
KA: Especially in hindsight, it seems as though the check-raise all in would have been the best play.
AB: Yeah, even with the check-raise, I’m not giving him odds to call with a draw — or it’s very close. I wasn’t thinking as much as I should have about the fact that he could have overs along with a draw. It’s not hard for him to have two cards bigger than a 9, which is what he ended up having. Check-raising all in on the turn would have been a little bit better in terms of getting maximum value from his draws and/or folding him off his draws. I failed to consider how much equity he had with some of his drawing hands.
KA: Do you think he would have folded to your all in on the turn?
AB: Probably. It’s a crappy spot for him to be in, but yeah, I think he’d opt to fold. It would be a blatantly bad call, but I can’t guarantee he wouldn’t have made it.
One other thing. When he makes top pair on the river, I think he sort of has an interesting decision about whether he wants to put in the last $500 in or not. If he knows how light I could three-bet him, like if he knows I could show up with J-9 here, He probably thinks I have a stronger hand or a bluff on the turn. It’s certainly not inconceivable that I could have pocket aces, kings, queens, or sets here. I very well could have played it just like this and checked the river to induce a bluff from his hand he’s aware looks like a missed bluff. He thought about it for a long time, and I think if he was aware that I could check-raise him with a hand like this, he would have put the money in on the river. In this case, he didn’t realize I’d be showing up with hands like this until after this hand. Given that, I think it’s standard for him to check behind, but I thought he definitely had an interesting decision.
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