Stop Worrying About Draws

One of the most common flaws in thinking I see among poker players is an excessive worry about “charging draws” and the possibility that, when one has a strong made hand, one’s opponents might be drawing. In large pots, this makes more sense. When the pot is large relative to your stack, there is a lot of value in protecting what you believe to be a majority equity share. In a smaller pot, considerations relating to the money remaining in the effective stacks – both protecting your own stack and extracting more money from your opponents’ – are often more important concerns.

This isn’t to say that draws should be ignored or that charging them is never correct; it often is. However, many players focus on this single aspect of a hand too early, too often, and too intently, overlooking other important considerations in the process. This article will highlight the most common situations in which players worry too much about possible draws and explain how to improve your thinking in these situations.

Immediately Upon Seeing the Flop

You raise in early position with a pair of red jacks. A tight, borderline nitty opponent calls in middle position, and everyone else folds.

As the dealer prepares to spread the flop, your heart leaps to see the jack of clubs in the door. Worry quickly sets in, however, as you see the other two cards: the five of clubs and the deuce of diamonds. You impulsively grab a handful of chips, barely even bothering to count them, and throw them defiantly into the pot. You expect a fold – some part of you even hopes for a fold, better that than a third club on the turn, you think – but have to charge those draws, right?

Not so fast. Just because the flop is two-tone doesn’t mean your opponent has a flush draw. Even if he loves to play suited hands preflop, the odds are strongly against it. For every combination of two clubs he could hold, there are three combinations of non-club suited hands in his range. Rare is the player who will call a raise with 9 8 but not 9 8. In fact, the two clubs on the flop actually make other suits disproportionately likely, since he cannot hold hands like J 9.

Then there are all the unsuited hands. There are six times as many ways to be dealt 9-8 offsuit as 9-8 suited, though admittedly many players will fold the former to a raise. Still, for hands that he will play offsuit, K-Q for instance, such combinations greatly outweigh the few that would provide a flush draw.

What this means is that just because a flush draw is possible doesn’t mean your opponent has it. Until he shows some interest in the flop, it’s too soon to start putting him on a flush draw. Once he bets or calls a bet, it becomes a real possibility, but as a percentage of hands that will see the flop, flush draws are never very likely.

Ace on the Board

The above math is a little fuzzy because most players won’t play just any two suited cards (though a few will, and against them you need to account for more flush draw possibilities). For example, there are many situations where a player might have any suited ace, suited broadway hands, and most suited connectors in his range, but not combinations like K-2 or 9-5. On a A 6 5 flop, a player whose suited range consists of A-2 plus, K-10 plus, Q-10 plus, J-10, 10-9, 9-8, 8-7, 7-6, 6-5, and 5-4 will have 19 combinations of possible two-card starting hands that could give him a flush draw.

Half of those combinations contain the ace of hearts, though, so changing the flop to A 6 5 has a dramatic effect on the likelihood of this player holding a flush draw. Now only 10 two-card starting hands could produce a flush draw.

When you hold A-K on an A 6 4 flop and an opponent calls your bet, that player is far more likely to hold a dominated ace than a flush or straight draw. Thus your chief concern ought to be extracting value from those worse aces rather than protecting yourself from the occasional flush draw. Depending on the situation, that may mean checking the turn and value betting the river, a line some players are reluctant to take when flush draws are possible.

Straight Draws

Two-card straight draws are almost always less likely than two-card flush draws because they require two cards of a particular rank. Whereas any two of eleven remaining hearts (110 combinations) produce a nine-out flush draw on a 10 7 2 flop, a player must hold one of four eights and one of four nines (16 combinations) to have an eight-out straight draw. Thus, protecting your hand from straight draws is generally less important than protecting from flush draws. Likewise, you’ll miss a lot of value if you clam with your strong hands whenever a possible straight draw comes in.

After a Check

This is a more player-dependent observation, so it’s best to take note of how your opponents play their draws, but there are many situations where an aggressive player will rarely check a draw. Eight- and nine-out draws are extremely good bluffing hands, so in spots where all players figure to have a wide range, it’s common to bet them.

For example, an aggressive player raises from the button, and you call with a pair of fours out of the big blind. You check a 9 4 3 flop, expecting him to continuation bet, but he checks behind.

The turn is the 8. It’s quite unlikely that this player has 6-5 or a club draw. Even if he did check such a hand on the flop, he’ll almost certainly bet the turn. Likewise with a turned draw such as J-10.

It sure seems like he has nothing, so it’s probably best for you to check again. If he bets, you can raise. If he checks, a free card is a lot more likely to give him a second-best hand that will pay off a river bet than to give him a hand stronger than yours.

Conclusion

Fear inhibits good decision-making. Learn to think clearly about an opponent’s entire range rather than just the worst case scenarios and you’ll find yourself winning bigger pots with your best hands. Maybe you’ll even pick off a few bluffs on scary cards that would once have caused you to fold a winner! ♠

Andrew Brokos is a professional poker player, writer and coach. He’s a member of Poker Stars Team Online and blogs about poker strategy on ThinkingPoker.net. Andrew is also interested in education reform and founded an after-school debate program for urban youth.