It's All Relative

In basketball wagering, as in Einstein's celestial physics, "everything is relative."

At my home base of The Gold Sheet, it seems inevitable that when we have a "release" on a basketball team that is favored by 15 points or more, one or two of our subscribers will call to comment, "That is a lot of points," or to ask, "Isn't that too many points to lay in a basketball game?"

My answer is invariably the same: "It's not too many if the pointspread should be even higher." It's all relative to the strength of the two teams (that is, their relative power ratings), the player matchups, team depth, and the scheduling dynamics leading up to the contest.

Let's focus on one game as an example – the Jan. 26 match of Florida State at Maryland. The opening pointspread in Las Vegas was Maryland -19, and it quickly moved to Maryland -18.5. The Gold Sheet power ratings on the game indicated Maryland -22. We released Maryland, and the seemingly inevitable inquiries quickly followed: "How can you lay 18.5 points in any basketball game?"

The answer, of course, is contained in the "basketball theory of relativity" – that the real pointspread value in a wager lies not in the absolute size of the pointspread, but in the relative difference between the pointspread and the power rating on a game.

Of course, life in the handicapping world is not so simple. It is very difficult to win just by making wagers based on power ratings in and of themselves. But in the Florida State-Maryland game, the "stars were coming together" much in favor of the Terrapins.

Maryland, the home team, was in a good rhythm, coming off a solid performance three days earlier at Wake Forest, winning 85-63, with the Terrapins' deep bench contributing and Maryland extending its lead throughout the second half. Maryland, a 1-point underdog, easily played to the power rating of Maryland -3 in the Wake Forest game.

Florida State, the visiting team in the Maryland game, was also coming off a victory, 68-63 over Clemson, in which the thinner Seminoles used their starters for "heavy minutes," having to overcome a 4-point halftime deficit. Moreover, that contest was played only two days before the Maryland game, and Florida State was the team that had to do the traveling to College Park. Florida State did not quite play up to our power rating of -6 vs. Clemson, nor did FSU cover the 6-point spread on the game.

In addition to Maryland's greater talent (seven veterans back from last year's "Final Four" team), depth, and scheduling edge, the Terrapins also had a revenge motive on their side, having been upset at home by Florida State last year. A high-echelon team such as Maryland will take particular note of such a loss. In fact, one of the Florida State players jumped on the scorer's table in celebration after the game, and many of the fans booed the Terrapins off the floor. Maryland had not lost a home game since then.

So, there you have it – more talent, greater depth, easier scheduling, a revenge motive, and favorable pointspread relative to our power rating on the game. Thus, the pointspread of 18.5 might have seemed high in absolute terms, but it was relatively "cheap" in handicapping terms when compared with a power rating indicating Maryland -22, especially with the Terrapins being the superior, fully capable, well-motivated team.

In fact, the pointspread on the game dropped to -17 by tip-off time. And, after a hard-fought first half in which Florida State trailed by only 6 points, the Seminoles steadily "lost touch" in the second half, gradually, inexorably, falling further behind until they trailed by 23 in the late going, and, being unable to cut significantly into the deficit against the Terrapin reserves, lost 84-63.

After the contest, the Maryland players revealed that coach Gary Williams had printed the word "revenge" in big letters on the blackboard in the team locker room.

There are several worthwhile handicapping reminders involving this contest (and other games involving big pointspreads):

1. A pointspread is "high" only if it is high relative to what the power ratings indicate it should be. Powerful teams at relatively cheap pointspreads can yield excellent wagers.

2. If you are going to lay a double-digit pointspread on a game, it's good to keep the emotional edge (in the FSU-Maryland case, a nice revenge motive) on your side.

3. At high pointspreads, be sure the favored team has the talent and depth to maintain or extend a lead.

4. At high pointspreads, be sure the favored team is willing to play active defense (senior guard Juan Dixon of the Terrapins had eight steals in the FSU game and is on his way to the all-time Maryland record), so it doesn't fritter away a lead.

5. If you're going to lay substantial points in a contest, be sure to look for a "high-variance" game. You want the contest to have lots of "back and forth" in it, with lots of possessions. "Low-variance" games of the style played by Princeton, Northwestern, North Carolina-Wilmington, and the like can be very risky, because those teams tend to "shrink" the game by milking each possession, playing on their opponents' patience and making each possession doubly valuable, adding tension to every shot.

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