The Size of the Pot Can Make a Big Difference

You play poker to win money. The more you win, the more successful you are - and the happier you are. Right? It also follows that the less you lose in any particular hand, the easier it is to come away from the table a winner at the end of a session. After all, when you lose a sizable amount of money in any one hand, it means you have to win a bigger hand - or an extra one - to make up for that loss. So, it makes good sense to avoid big losses. For the sake of emphasis, I repeat: Avoid big losses!

Having said that, I'll describe a hand I observed while playing $4-$8 seven-card stud at a local casino recently that will illustrate the prudence of that advice.

The game was shorthanded with just six players. We'll pick up the action on fifth street. At this point, there were only two players still in the hand, and the pot was not very big; make a mental note of that. Both players appeared to be working on flushes. The player in seat No. 2, who was fairly tight, had three diamonds, ace high, on board. He checked to the player in seat No. 4 who had three clubs showing, jack high, and he also checked.

On sixth street, seat No. 2 caught a fourth diamond. His ace-high four-flush looked very good! Seat No. 4 was dealt a heart that didn't seem to help him in any way. Seat No. 2 promptly made the $8 bet.

At this point, let's pause a moment to survey the situation. Assume you are in seat No. 4 and must make the decision to call the bet, raise, or fold. What is your decision? How do you arrive at that decision?

First, you examine your cards: You hold four to a club flush, no pairs, and no chance of backing into a straight. Your highest card is the Q in the hole. Now, let's consider the size of the pot. Because there are only two players remaining in the hand, the pot is rather meager - about $20. That's pot odds of $20-to-$8 = 2.5-to-1 - not very attractive.

What about the card odds, your chance of making the flush? Three other clubs had fallen. What is your chance of connecting with a fifth club to make the flush on the river based on the number of unseen clubs possibly remaining? Let's calculate the card odds: Accounting for your four clubs plus the three no longer live, there are six clubs still possibly available (13 - 7). You have seen a total of 16 cards, including all of yours. So, there are 52 - 16 = 36 remaining unseen cards. Subtracting the six clubs possibly remaining, there are 30 cards that won't help you. That means the card odds are 30-to-6; that's 5-to-1 against you - not even close to the pot odds!

Also, not many diamonds, which your opponent needs, have fallen. Your opponent had checked his ace-high three-flush on fifth street, now has four diamonds showing on the board, and has bet. So, make your decision.

If you decided to fold, I would agree with you 100 percent.

Rationale: The size of the pot just doesn't warrant your chasing after the fifth club for the flush. The pot odds are so much lower than the card odds. And, if you should make the flush, would it be the best hand? If your opponent doesn't already have the diamond flush, he has just as good a chance as you do of drawing it. Most important of all, his ace-high flush would beat you, unless you happened to draw the A, which is a long shot. So, all things considered, it would be prudent to fold your cards and save your money for another hand.

In the actual game, the player called the $8 bet. The river card did not help him, and he folded his cards. So, he had, in effect, contributed an extra $8 to the winner. That $8 could have paid for lots of antes.

Lesson learned: There are times when it makes good sense to fold your cards rather than chase the rainbow.

As an aside, I want to point out that if you are drawing to a flush, you are better off having several players in the hand. The more, the merrier, because it will increase the amount of money you'll win should you succeed in making the flush. A flush is a strong hand and will win most of the time, especially if you have a high card as part of it.

On the other hand, if you are starting with a high pair, it is best if there are fewer opponents in the hand. More likely than not, you will make two pair or will end up with the lone pair (no improvement). The more players there are in the hand, the more likely it is that your two pair (or lone pair) will be beaten.

Editor's note: George Epstein is the author of The Greatest Book of Poker for Winners!