Learning to Love Road Teams

One of the things I always look for, while it's still early in the baseball season, is which teams have demonstrated a knack for winning on the road. As is the case in most team sports, most home teams tend to win substantially more often than the road teams. This is something that is well-known to oddsmakers, and they take it into account when setting the "price" on a game. Also, most fans tend to feel a little more comfortable betting the home teams, so the line is often "puffy" on the home favorites.

However, it's curious each year how a few teams, for a variety of reasons, tend to play just as well on the road – or sometimes even better – as they do at home. So, as someone who's always looking for high-value wagers, I watch closely the home versus road performances as the baseball season unfolds. First and foremost, you nearly always get better value when you wager on a visitor. (I've pointed out previously in my columns how difficult it can be to win in the long run if you too frequently lay prices of more than -160 on favorites. The long-run odds make it too difficult to win a high enough percentage.)

Of course, there's a further refinement, and that has to do with the starting pitchers. Some are much better at home than on the road – and they tend to be the younger pitchers. A youngster who gives up one run in eight innings of a home game might give up five runs in four innings of his next start when on the road. That's why, as a general rule, I never trust a young pitcher on the road until he's proven he can win in an opponent's park. Some pitchers never learn how to win more than 20 percent or 25 percent of their road games. It might be their nerves, slight differences in the mounds that affect their deliveries, the unusual surroundings, or the fact that the hitters on their own teams also usually do worse on the road than at home.

But, to me, the "buy" signal on a young pitcher flashes when he starts winning road games. Those road wins are symptomatic of so many positives for a pitcher. They show that they have confidence and maturity, the flexibility to adjust, the ability to throw strikes when they have to, and an ability to stabilize things after some possible early adversity.

If a young pitcher has talent, I might be interested in backing his team with a wager, but only at home at first. Once he pitches well and beats a good team on the road, I start to get very interested in his future starts. And it also becomes easier to back that pitcher against top teams at home, especially if that pitcher is a home underdog.

As I've mentioned before, it's one of my personal principles in baseball never to wager on a game based on the starting pitching alone. This is particularly true when it comes to young pitchers, especially on the road. A pitcher who is backed by a strong-fielding defense is going to challenge more batters, and not try to throw the ball past every hitter. Good defense provides young pitchers with confidence, and so does a strong-hitting lineup. With good hitters in his team's batting order, a young pitcher doesn't worry so much if he gives up a home run that might get the home crowd going. Instead of looking over his shoulder at the manager in the dugout, he has the inner strength to bear down and get the next hitter.

I will hesitate to go with a young pitcher on the road unless he is backed by a strong bullpen. Obviously, the key bullpen guy is the closer. But I don't like road teams regardless of the starting pitcher unless (1) they have a shutdown closer, or (2) I think they're going to knock the opposing pitcher out of the game and get into the weak links of the opponent's bullpen.

When you're backing a promising young pitcher in a road game, you not only want to have that solid closer going for you, but also strong setup men. I don't have any specific stats at my fingertips, but I'll wager that the vast majority of young pitchers accumulate more innings per start in their home games than they do in their road games. Moreover, there are few complete games anywhere these days. Savvy managers, looking to build the confidence of an emerging youngster, are going to lift him sooner on the road than at home, especially at the first sign of trouble.

Lastly, if I see that a pitcher has great difficulty winning on the road, even a veteran of a number of years on a good team, I don't hesitate to go against him over and over again, even with mediocre pitching on my side.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the 2004 Gold Sheet Football Preview at your local newsstand. If you'd like to reserve a copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.