Mindset for the Start of the New Football Season

If you've read more than a couple of my previous columns, you're probably quite aware of one of my favorite sports betting mantras: If you want to "play" a good game, you first have to think a good game. (Translation: If you intend to have sustained success in sports betting, you first must have a proper game plan.) This is never more true than at the start of a new season of football, the king of sports wagering.

In many respects, sports betting is similar to poker and many other forms of gambling. A well-thought plan of attack within your cranium helps control the urges of your hand to push your chips into the pot when the odds are not in your favor. In my now-considerable experience, I can recall very few people who have the inherent intuitive sense of pointspread value, money management, discipline, and accurate evaluation of players and coaches to succeed in sports wagering over a term of any consequence. Usually, a functional game plan is a key.

If you want to succeed (that is, make money) this football season, you might find it helpful to review the following:

1. Have a specific sports betting bankroll. You should never need sports betting dollars for essentials such as food, rent, taxes, child support, and so on. Never bet money you can't afford to lose. If you do lose your sports betting bankroll, consider yourself out of action until you generate other strictly "recreational" dollars.

2. Have a basic money-management system in place that is right for you. Don't let your ego, buddies, or hunches get in the way. A disciplined money-management system is just as important as being able to pick winners against the pointspread. If you're not a good handicapper, it is more important.

3. Get used to employing power ratings as a point of departure. Admittedly, early-season power ratings can involve lots of guessing and suppositions. But, they still entail analysis of the initial differences between teams, and you will adjust them quickly as you get more information. Power ratings firm up considerably after two or three games.

4. Don't get blown out early. Vow to restrain yourself in the first couple of weeks. If you find yourself interested in lots of games, reduce the amount you bet on each game. Most coaches don't even know how their teams will perform in early games. The first two or three weeks of the season usually is the time to learn and minimize surprises, and not the time to strike it rich and lock up a winning season.

5. Emphasize, but don't overemphasize, experience of the players in early games. Yes, the number of returning starters from the previous season is important. But, the overall talent and ability of players quickly become more important as the season progresses. They are more important than ever these days, as a matter of fact. I remember one year that a team with only four listed returning starters ended up winning the national championship.

6. Previous player experience is more important early, and then it rapidly declines. If you ever went to one of the many pre-college camps that players attend while in high school, you would be startled by the increasingly rapid progress made by today's youngsters. Most high school football is far more advanced than just 10 years ago. And the best of the best college players have their designs set on leaving college early for the NFL. Coaches know that, and thus try to get most of them in the lineup early.

7. Start with a "clean slate" when you evaluate teams. Don't be biased or partial. Conscientious preparation for the season is good, but don't become wedded to your initial analysis. Actual performance on the field is more important than past reputation and preseason analysis. Players can improve dramatically from year to year, especially quarterbacks.

8. Study intently early in order to uncover the teams that are strong in the "pits" (that is, the offensive and defensive lines) and on defense. The media overemphasizes big plays and scoring plays, but teams that are consistently strong in the pits (for example, Southern Cal, LSU, New England, and Carolina last year) are usually ticketed for season-long success. Teams with weak offensive lines and vulnerable defenses inevitably tend to falter as the level of competition rises.

9. Be especially careful with exotic wagers (that is, teasers and parlays) early in the season. An early misread on just one or two teams can cost a lot of money. Remember, you're still learning about emerging players and team chemistry for the new season.

10. Be determined to "let the season come to you." Just as QBs in football and top scorers in basketball often struggle when they try to force matters, so will you if you insist on making lots of wagers on incomplete or partial analysis early in the season, especially if the pointspreads are already soaring on teams that are favored. Be extra careful of early big favorites, road favorites, or teams that looked overpowering against a weak opponent. There will be plenty of high-percentage wagering opportunities later when you have more information as the campaign unfolds. The football season these days is longer than ever, with more TV games than ever.

These are just a few reminders for "getting your mind right" prior to the season. Awareness of them will help you "think a good game" and discipline your early wagers.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. To begin your handicapping for this season, look for the 2004 Gold Sheet Football Preview at your local newsstand. If you'd like to reserve a copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.