Maximizing Small-Stakes Hold'em Winnings - Part IV

This is the fourth in a series of columns discussing the new book Small Stakes Hold'em, published by Two Plus Two Publishing and authored by Ed Miller, David Sklansky, and Mason Malmuth. The book addresses experienced players who are trying to make a substantial income by playing in low-limit games. In my columns, a number of hands are selected from the book, and the format is to present the problem and the answer stated in the book, and then my thoughts. You may want to first try to answer the problem yourself before reading the book answer or my thoughts. Remember that all problems are based on a loose low-limit game.

Hand No. 1: You are on the button with the J J. Two players limp in and someone in middle position raises. The player on your right cold-calls. What should you do?

Book Answer: Reraise. Pocket jacks are a premium holding, and they usually win far more than their share against four loose opponents. While unfavorable flops come relatively often, so do favorable flops. You will flop three undercards about a third of the time and a set an additional 12 percent of the time. Those times that you flop a set, your pot equity will often be more than 70 percent (against four opponents). Sets come infrequently, but when they do come, they are extremely profitable. When you raise for value against four players, you are not betting that you will win the majority of the time. You are basically betting that you will win more than 20 percent of the time. Unless one of your opponents has a bigger pair, you will almost always win more often than that with jacks. When one of your opponents does have a bigger pair, you will sometimes outflop him. Your edge is big. To maximize your winnings, you simply must gamble in favorable spots like this. The upsides of waiting to see the flop do not compensate for your failure to make the pot bigger.

My Thoughts: It depends on who the raiser is. Many low-limit players will not raise with A-K or A-Q after a few limpers have come into the pot. This means that when they do raise in this situation, they probably have a pair. Therefore, the chance of being up against a pocket pair higher than your jacks is greater than normal. Furthermore, in a low-limit game like the one described, a three-bet is not as likely to eliminate the two limpers as it might be in a bigger game. Note also that if you just call, the blinds will be encouraged to play. Now, you are getting good odds to try to flop a set. As an aside, in a typical betting sequence in which you go all the way to the river, you will usually end up having put in more than 20 percent of the money that ends up in the pot, since players typically drop out along the way.

Hand No. 2: You are in a game full of loose, passive opponents. You have the K 4 on the button. Four players limp in and you limp in. The small blind calls and the big blind checks. There are seven small bets in the pot. The flop comes J 7 4, giving you bottom pair. It is checked to you. What should you do?

Book Answer: Betting is right, for two reasons:

1. It improves your winning chances. If you have the best hand, betting is obviously correct. Even if you do not, you still want people with hands like Q-10 to fold. If you catch a king on the turn, Q-10 picks up an open-end straight redraw. Betting might even get a better hand like pocket sixes to fold.

2. Against passive opponents, betting will likely buy a free card on the turn. Your draw is not strong, but the pot is big enough that it is worth investing a small bet to try to get a free look at the river. Against passive opponents (when the free-card play is most likely to succeed), if you are on the button, you usually should try for a free card with any hand that is worth calling one bet. Since you definitely would have called here (getting at least 8-to-1), you probably should try for a free card on the turn by betting the flop.

My Thoughts: Normally, I don't like betting into a large field with bottom pair. But, this hand is an exception. I would bet because:

1. No one has shown any strength.

2. The board is rainbow.

3. There is only one high card on the flop.

4. There are no connecting cards on the flop.

5. I am very unlikely to get check-raised in this passive game.

However, I take issue with the idea that you would necessarily want a free card on the turn. This would depend upon how many players call the flop bet and what the turn card is.

Assuming that no one bets into me on the turn, consider the following scenarios:

1. I get one caller on the flop. I would bet the turn. The likelihood of taking it down right there is so high that taking a free card would be a serious mistake.

2. I get two callers on the flop. I still might bet the turn since the players are passive and it now costs them a big bet to call. The likelihood of picking up the pot is still quite high, especially if an overcard to the jack turns up.

3. The turn card is a jack. This now pairs the top flop card. My passive opponents might fear that I bet the flop with top pair and have now made trips. I would bet regardless of how many callers I got on the flop. It is extremely unlikely that anyone has a jack, given the absence of betting by my opponents on both the flop and the turn. This is a reasonable semibluff, since I can represent a strong hand and have outs against a better hand if I am called.

4. The turn card is a blank. I got three or more callers on the flop. Now, I will take the free card.

To play "devil's advocate," there are some problems with betting. You might get check-raised. When this happens, you will be obliged to call because of the pot odds, which will be at least 10-to-1 depending upon how many others are still in the pot. Another problem is that you may decline the free card for the reasons cited above and end up getting called down by a calling station with some mediocre holding that happens to be better than your pair of fours. Finally, you may take your free card and end up calling a river bet to prevent your opponent from stealing the pot when you showed weakness by not betting the turn. But in a loose, passive low-limit game like the one described in the book, all of this is very unlikely, and betting is the right play.

Editor's note: Jim Brier has co-authored a new book with Bob Ciaffone titled Middle Limit Holdem Poker. It is available through Card Player.