The Forlorn Hope - A useful sports betting concept, particularly for baseball

forlorn hope n. 1: A body of men selected to perform a perilous service; 2: a desperate or extremely difficult enterprise- Webster's Dictionary

The phrase above is most often used in a historical context, such as in connection with the ill-fated Donner Party, a group of 87 pioneers attempting to make the trek from Illinois to Californiain 1846. Due partly to what they thought would be a shortcut, most of the party became trapped by an early, lengthy, heavy snowfall in the Sierra Nevadas. A group of 15 members of the party (who became known as "The Forlorn Hope") made a desperation attempt to walk through the deep snow of the mountains to go for help, only to become lost, with infamous results.

But enough about history. What does this have to do with sports betting? It's a sad fact that the syndrome of the forlorn hope is now permeating professional sports earlier and more often than ever in these days of the 21st century. By that syndrome, I mean the feeling of despair among players when it becomes apparent their team has fallen out of contention in the first couple of months of a long, long season, with virtually no chance of ever rejoining the playoff chase.For example, even before the 2004 Christmas holidays, it was obvious that the Atlanta Hawks and New Orleans Hornets had virtually no chance of making the NBA playoffs. Many other lottery teams to be, such as the Lakers and Clippers in Los Angeles, at least had an outside chance in late March of earning a playoff berth if they could only put together a miracle finish and get some breaks. Neither happened, but at least the Lakers and Clippers had something to fight for until the early days of April. For the Hawks and Hornets, it was a case of "forlorn hope" for much more than half a season.


The same thing happens in baseball. And, sadly, because of the vastly different salary budgets of the teams, it is happening – as I said – with greater frequency. In 2003, the once-proud Detroit Tigers had to fight deep into the final week of the season to avoid finishing with the worst record in the history of baseball, ending the year 43-119, for a winning percentage of .265, 47 games out of first place in the American League Central and 58 games behind the A.L.-leading Yankees. For the Tiger players, their season became a forlorn hope with four months to play.


This season, after nearly two months, the Kansas City Royals were playing even worse baseball (.260) and had fired their manager. Although it's mathematically possible, the K.C. players know in their hearts that only a miracle turnaround or a multiple calamity will enable them to join the playoff chase this season. Their feeling of despair also permeates because of the players' knowledge that their team is likely to dangle some of its few capable players as trade bait to contenders in the coming weeks, much as K.C. did with all-star outfielder Carlos Beltran, a free agent to be who was dealt to Houston in June 2004.


Being part of a forlorn hope is a very trying experience for professional athletes, despite the fact they are well compensated. However, the emergence of the forlorn hope syndrome is a situation that greatly lends itself to financial rewards for the enterprising handicapper, particularly in baseball, with its virtual daily action. Pro athletes will tell you how difficult it is to focus day after day in the midst of a hopeless situation. The inner battle versus despair is hard to win.


In sports betting, the first tendency is to focus on uncovering the most capable, most promising teams each season. It doesn't take too long, however, for the oddsmaker to catch up with that public predilection. The odds on the good teams can become prohibitive.


But there's often just as much money – and sometimes more – to be made by repeatedly going against the worst teams. The key is to choose your moments. Take a look at the "runs line" (laying 1.5 runs at more favorable odds). If you're an experienced sports bettor (and only if you're experienced), consider going against the "forlorn hopes" in two-team parlays. (Because of the nature of the sport, I never advise involving more than two teams in a parlay).


Study the worst of the worst teams closely to uncover their biggest faults. If the lineup is filled with immature prospects, "suspects," wannabes, and over-the-hill veterans, look to go "under" the total when it's facing the top pitchers. If the rotation of the "forlorn hope" is brimming with wild young starting pitchers backed by weak relievers, look at the "over" if the opponent has lots of punch in its lineup.


And, for most "forlorn hopes," there is usually at least one "stop" sign; often, it's the one quality pitcher in its rotation, maybe a couple of capable hitters in the middle of the lineup, or maybe a semidecent record at home. The latter appears to be the case this year with what many Vegas handicappers have begun to call the "Triple-A" Colorado Rockies. Frequently employing four or five rookies in its starting lineup, Colorado began the season with a respectable 11-12 record at home, but was a barely competitive 4-23 on the road.


Here's one last caveat: When mid-August rolls around, beware of a group of youngsters who – through increased experience and camaraderie – form a unit capable of playing .500 ball against middle-rung teams for the rest of the season.


Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the extraordinary 2005 Gold Sheet Football Annual on newsstands nationwide to start your handicapping. Or, you can reserve your copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.