I conclude this two-part series with the remainder of the major factors that you should take into account when planning your play on the flop. To remind you, the factors are:
• Number of opponents
• How they play
• Nature of the flop
• Size of the pot
• Opponents' likely hands
• Your position
• Your hand
In the last issue, I covered the first four factors and some general thoughts on planning your play. That column is available at www.CardPlayer.com. Let's now take a look at the remaining factors.
Opponents' likely hands: You must do some detective work here. Your opponents already have done something to get to the flop: raised, called a raise, limped in (which means they had the opportunity to raise and did not), or reraised.
All of their actions had meanings, and some had more meaning than others. If your very tight opponent limped in from under the gun, you can put him on a narrow range of hands: perhaps 10-10, 9-9, 8-8, A-Q, A-J, or K-Q suited. If a middle-position player open-raised, the range of hands you can assign him depends on how you have seen him play. Some players require a premium hand; some will have any ace, a pocket pair, or any two Broadway cards. Very few will have a hand like 6-5 suited, and eventually you will learn who those few players are.
Your job is to figure out how the flop may or may not fit their likely hands based on their preflop betting. You can make only an approximation, but that is better than just saying to yourself, "Who knows what they have?" Use this estimate as a guideline when planning your play.
How you decide to play will depend on:
• How predictable your opponent is
• How you believe he will play hands when he is ahead
• How he will play when he is behind
You must do something; you can't just check and fold when you are up against a loose opponent. Determine your opponent's likely hands and how they fit with the board before developing your plan.
Your position: Think about your absolute and relative position. Your plan will depend on where you are and what you wish to accomplish. All of your desired actions are easier if you are in position. Whether you want to build a pot, get a free card, protect your hand, or bluff, having the best position makes a big difference.
I already have discussed position quite a bit. In terms of post-flop planning, assess how to use your position to accomplish what you want. Can you improve your absolute position by raising and causing players behind you to fold? Can you gain reliable information by making a play now?
Position is not just something you have; it's something you must exploit.
Even if you are in early position, you still need to assess how to make the most of the position you have. Whatever you do,
do not check in the dark. The many reasons are discussed in detail in my book,
Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, available from www.CardPlayer.com.
Your hand: I list this last, but not because it's unimportant. Most players spend too much time thinking about their hand and too little time thinking about the other factors. You need to think about your hand, of course, but also about what your opponents think your hand may be. Too many players give up excellent bluffing opportunities because they know what they have and forget that their opponents do not know.
Estimate the probability that you have the best hand. If you do, you then must think about the best way to protect it if it is vulnerable, and the best way to maximize your winnings if it is powerful.
If you think you have the best hand but are uncertain, consider how to find out at the lowest cost while still protecting it.
You also must think about the chances that you will have the best hand after two more cards come.
Frequently, the number of opponents will enter into your decision about whether your hand might be the best. If you raise with A-K and just the big blind calls, chances are that a flop of J-8-5 did not hit him. You should proceed as if you hold the best hand. If five players call, the chances that you have the best hand are small, and you should plan to check and fold.
If you do not have the best hand, you need to decide whether you are getting the right price to draw for it. Your assessment needs to account for your implied odds - the extra money that you may make if you do win - but it also needs to include the chances that you will make your hand and still lose.
If you are unlikely to have the best hand and are not getting the right price for your draw, the only thing left before folding is to determine your chances of winning with a bluff. If you decide, based on the number of opponents, their tendencies, their likely holdings, your image, and the texture of the flop, that a bluff has a positive EV (expected value), go ahead and try it.
You don't need to have the best hand if you are not going to have to turn it over.
In fact, one of the reasons players do not bluff enough is that they fail to look at their hidden holding from their opponents' perspective. What you have is far less important than what your opponents think you have (assuming that you have opponents who think). Always think about what they think you might have when making your bluff-or-fold decision.
Conclusion: Many people sort of "play at poker" rather than play poker. When it is their turn to act, they guess at what to do, generally checking and calling. Playing correctly requires thinking about your hand, the board, and what you would do to minimize your losses or maximize your profits.
Certainly, you have to take into account what your opponents are doing, and what you think they are trying to accomplish, as well. Your plans must be dynamic, changing as conditions and your opponents' actions dictate. Even if your plan is sometimes wrong, having one puts you way ahead of the average player, and as your plans improve, so will your results.
Barry Tanenbaum, author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-handed Strategies, offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please visit his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].
