Confusion at the RiverDeception valueby Roy Cooke | Published: Mar 26, 2008 |
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We all had just sat down to start a $30-$60 limit hold'em game. The lineup looked terribly tough, with many top local players taking a seat. It was a must-move game. I couldn't change tables quickly, but with three other games going, I knew that eventually we would spread out, as nobody was looking to stay in this game! That said, both life and poker are about adapting to realities and making the best of the hand that you're dealt. So I bore down, intent on playing my best game against an ugly field.
The second hand, I was dealt the 7 6 under the gun, a hand that I usually fold. But part of playing poker optimally is searching for nonstandard plays when you can create value, and I could find value in a nonstandard play in this situation.
When new games start, I find that the value of aggression goes up, particularly in tight fields. Also, deception plays have more value early in a game (or when you first sit down), as players tend to pay more attention to you. Also, a deceptive image created early has more value the longer you spend with the players in the game. I fired $60 forward, open-raising.
Things, alas, don't always go as planned. Justin, a local pro, called from two seats behind me, and three other opponents took off the flop. In spite of the fact that I would have loved to withdraw my preflop raise, I think my thought was still correct, and the cards, as they often will, just dictated putting me in a bad position. That said, I still needed to make the best of my situation and play my holding as best I could.
The flop came A 6 4. I had flopped second pair with backdoor-flush and straight draws. I also held a hand that my opponents were likely to misread. It was highly likely that one of my opponents held an ace, but not indubitably so. There was a reasonable amount of money in this pot, and if nobody held an ace, I would likely win the pot by betting, representing a premium hand. If I checked, I would be calling, so firing a bet in situations in which I would get raised/called wouldn't cost me too much in the way of expectation. I could draw out on a lone ace, being only around a 3-1 dog to that hand. I fired a bet into the pot.
Bang! Justin raised me, which was not what I wanted. I was pretty sure he had an ace. A player unknown to me called the raise cold, but his mannerisms indicated to me that he was thinking about folding, and I didn't put him on a big hand. The rest of the field folded to me. I called, looking to improve my hand.
The turn card was the 8. I had picked up gutshot-straight and flush draws. Now, I had almost a 40 percent chance to beat an A-Q type of hand. I thought about my options. Justin is someone against whom aggressive play can have value, by getting him to lay down the best hand. When he thinks he's beat, he lays it down. I had played my hand in such a manner - by raising from under the gun preflop and leading on the flop - that if I check-raised him on the turn, he would read me for having a very big hand, as he had played with me enough to know that I'd play my big hands in that manner. I checked, Justin bet, the unknown player called, and I check-raised.
When Justin called me, I knew I was giving up if I missed my draw. He had a big enough hand that if he called the turn, he was almost certainly calling the river. The other player also called. The river blanked off, and I checked. They both checked behind me. I turned over my hand. "What is that?" inquired Justin, and he turned over the A J - both the best hand and having me dominated in hearts.
Yeah, I was sitting there with egg on my face, looking stupid - not for the first time in my life. But in spite of the fact that I ran into one of the worst scenarios that I could, I did get much in the way of deception value from the commotion created over the hand, which I helped instigate and knew would create value in calls made against me in the future.
You need to make plays that deceive your opponents into making errors in the future, and you also need to bluff with drawing hands that give you two ways to win. You can win the pot either by folding your opponents or by making your draw. The better your draw and the higher the likelihood of your opponents to fold, the stronger the play. And while my play didn't work, that didn't make it incorrect to attempt. Many plays are still correct even if the chances of getting away with them are less than 50 percent. Oftentimes, the size of the pot versus the cost of the play indicates that plays that are even big favorites to fail are correct to make, because you win so much more than you lose when you are successful.
Turning over the 7 6 at the river caused lots of discussion at the table - and I won back some of the value on later hands because of the confusion that it caused. It may even have made the day profitable!
Roy Cooke has played winning professional poker since 1972, and has been a Card Player columnist since 1992. He serves as a freelance consultant to the I-poker industry and has a successful Las Vegas real estate brokerage. He has written six poker books, available from www.conjelco.com/cooke. His website is www.roycooke.com. His longtime collaborator John Bond plays $5-$10 no-limit hold'em at the Hollywood, Florida, Seminole Hard Rock Casino and is featured in Best American Mystery Stories 2007.