The Moment of Truth

It might come as a complete surprise to you, but I am not a big fan of established truths, norms, and conventional thinking. Just because some people have been repeating something for years and years does not make it any more credible.

Gamblers are certainly just as conventional as most people -- or maybe even more so. The almost religious importance of "position," the coveted "gap concept," and the constant talk of "average" during a tournament are examples of topics that are rarely questioned and often repeated with an "as we all know" attitude. I will deal with position and other much too highly regarded concepts in future columns, and will look briefly at the concept of average in this column.

Average
When asked about how things are going in a tournament, most players feel obligated to inform you of whether their chip stack is below or above average. I have met many a new player who looks at how his stack compares to the average amount of the opponents' chips as a measure of how well he is playing or as a factor in future decision-making at the table. Basically, the concept of average is completely irrelevant, and should be discarded before it starts influencing your play. It is obvious that if you start second-guessing your moves simply because you have less in chips than your opponents at the table, you are not going to win a lot of tournaments.

A big live tournament usually takes four or five days, and you are up against (on average) 500 opponents. How is the mere fact that you have amassed 26,000 in chips early on day one and therefore find yourself slightly above average going to do you any good or influence your play in any way? Or, conversely, if your stack has taken a few hits and is down to 9,000 from your starting stack of 20,000 at the beginning of the 50-100 level, and you therefore are somewhat below average? Anyone? Just take the WPT Championship, for example. Usually, we start out with 50,000 in chips, and to win, you have to have more than 30 million. Is there really that much to be ecstatic about when you have grinded your way to an above-average stack of 220,000 in the middle of day two, besides the fact that you have made it that far?

NoRBYGB
My point is this: Tournament poker is meant to be volatile. You have to play poker and get involved in hands. You have to nip and tuck and grind (that almost sounded like the name of a new rap song), especially as the blinds and antes increase and you have to forget all about average. What is essentially important is not how you are doing compared to the general masses, but how big your stack is compared to the blinds and antes, aka NoO (Number of Orbits), M, or simply NoRBYGB (Number of Rounds Before You Go Broke)! If the blinds are 600-1,200 and the ante is 100 and you have 8,000 left, it is time to go all in, but if the blinds are 25-50, you are sitting comfortably even though your stack might be below average! Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the size of your table opponents' stacks doesn't matter! You always have to be aware of all crucial numbers at your table in order to calculate pot odds, to anticipate your opponents' moves, and so on. Just don't get distracted by what is going on away from your own table. Stay focused on making the right decisions and stay positive even though your stack size might not be moving in the right direction.

And most important of all -- remember to challenge the conventional poker wisdom.

World Series of Backgammon
Back to the real world. Since my last column, I have been finding my gambling roots by playing in and commentating the World Series of Backgammon. Not only is it a lot of fun to play, watch, and criticize the hell out of my backgammon buddies, it also helps to sharpen my analytical mind and keep me in shape for battles at the felt and on the board.

If some of you math wiz poker players wanna challenge yourself with a new "hobby," I strongly recommend replacing your PlayStation with a board, dice, and checkers for a while. Under normal circumstances, I would even throw in some "how to play" wisdom here, but then again -- if you have gotten this far in this column, you would know what to do with that kind of advice …

Gus plays online exclusively at FullTiltPoker.com. Be a part of Gus Hansen's poker community at www.theplayr.com, where, among other cool things, you can check out Gus' blogs, analysis, poker articles, Gus TV, Tips 'n' Tricks, "Ask Gus," and even play against Gus in exclusive online and live tournaments.