Be Prepared to Face Deception

These two events happened to me recently. They might seem unrelated to poker, but I promise that there's a connection.

Event No. 1: As a kid, I used to watch reruns of the 1950s TV game show To Tell the Truth. Its format was simple: The audience was told about an everyday person (Mr. X) with an interesting story. Then, three people came out -- the real Mr. X and two imposters. The idea was to figure out which of the three was the real Mr. X. A panel of D-list celebrities would ask them some questions regarding Mr. X's story, and at the end, they had to guess which one was telling the truth. Obviously, the audience played along, trying to guess who the real Mr. X was. And I'll tell you something: When I watched this as a child, I was terrible at it! I was lucky if I got it right once in five times.

Then, recently, I flipped on the Game Show Network, and lo and behold, I found that there are new episodes of To Tell the Truth. Remembering how bad my guesses were as a child, I decided to watch it and see if I could do any better. I watched three episodes -- six different Mr. Xs -- and went six-for-six. For some perspective, the majority of the panel guessed correctly only twice out of the six times. It felt good to know that after a dozen years of playing poker, I'd at least gotten better at detecting lies than when I was 9 years old.

Event No. 2: The following night, my wife and I went to the movies. Afterward, as we walked through the parking garage toward our car, we saw a man, with his car hood up, leaning over the engine. He saw us approach, and asked me, "Hey, do you have jumper cables, by any chance?"

"No, I'm sorry, we don't have any."

"Oh, man … I'm really stuck."

"I'm sorry, I wish we could help," I said as we started to walk away.

But he took a couple of steps toward us and said, "Look, this is really embarrassing for me, but I have to get home. I mean, I don't even care if the car stays here overnight. If you don't mind my asking, which direction are you going?"

"South, toward Alameda."

"Oh, man, I live in Richmond; that's totally the other way."

I nodded and shrugged, and he continued, "Look, I'm going to take public transportation home, then. But the thing is, I didn't bring any money with me." He voiced a quick barking laugh and said, "I didn't think I would need any. If you could help me out, I'd really appreciate it, and I'll send you the money back in the mail. I mean, look at me, I'm not some bum or something." That seemed true enough. His car was pretty nice, he was dressed in a sporty coat, and he wasn't poorly groomed or anything. He basically looked like any normal person you'd see during a night out on the town.

"Well, how much do you need?"

"I don't know; I mean, I hardly ever take public transportation. But I figure the BART is like $5 and then another $3 to take a bus, so maybe $8?"

At this point, I had to decide whether or not I was getting scammed. And while it was an obvious possibility, I was in a good mood, having just had a nice night out. I figured that if the guy was telling the truth, I could do him a good deed. I gave him $8 and got into my car.

"Thanks, man, I really appreciate it. Here, let me get your address. I'll send it back to you."

I told him that wasn't necessary, and we started to drive away. But before we even left the parking lot, my instincts forced me to replay the entire exchange. And it didn't take long to put the pieces together and realize that he had just pulled off an excellent scam for $8. I realized a few things:

1. If I had offered to jump-start his car, he simply would have accepted the jump, driven away, and maybe driven right back to the same spot and started over.

2. When he asked for a ride, whatever direction I said I was going, he would say it was the opposite direction of where he lived.

3. He made sure that he looked the part, rather than looking like a bum or a beggar. Again, his car, clothes, and overall appearance were perfectly normal.

4. When I asked how much he needed, he implied that he hardly ever took public transportation, reaffirming the idea that he was not generally in need of money.

Just to see if I was right, I drove past the guy's car, and sure enough, he was still there, leaning over the engine in the same way as when we first saw him. The funny thing is that I wasn't the least bit upset that I had just gotten tricked. In some strange way, I thought he had earned it.

The Connection to Poker

Our opponents are constantly looking to deceive us, and we have to be ready for it at all times. Watching the game show, I was prepared to be deceived, and I knew what to look for. I knew that the impostors would try their hardest to seem knowledgeable about Mr. X, while Mr. X probably would go out of his way to seem unsure of himself. It was like a poker player was sitting next to me whispering, "Strong means weak, weak means strong." All I had to do was picture myself at the tables, watching someone acting confident while he was bluffing or someone looking confused while he was holding the nuts, and suddenly To Tell the Truth became a piece of cake.

When I left the movie theatre, I was not prepared to be deceived. My guard was down, which allowed me to be manipulated. I knew it was possible that he might be "bluffing," but instead of analyzing his actions, I judged him by surface appearances. It was as if a player said to me, "Don't call, I have the nuts," and I simply believed him and meekly folded. Basically, my years of reading people at the tables were wasted. The money was not the issue. I just hate being bluffed, both in and out of poker.
But between the two, I consider it worse to be bluffed in poker, because I know ahead of time that everyone is there to deceive me. I cannot let my guard down, or else my opponents can simply control me. The same principle applies to you. You always must be thinking about not just what action your opponent is taking, but also what he wants you to believe from that action.

Otherwise, you just might be giving your money away.

Matt Lessinger is the author of The Book of Bluffs: How to Bluff and Win at Poker, available everywhere. You can find other articles of his at www.CardPlayer.com.