Folding Winners

If you never fold a winner in poker, you are playing way too loosely and inevitably will go broke. I see people calling "for the size of the pot" all the time when they know their opponent is looking for a call, and they know they are beat. Money you contribute when you know you are beat is just dead money.

When confronting an opponent's bet or raise, you take into account numerous variables in deciding how to respond. One of those variables is the degree of certainty that your hand is good or no good. Another is how the results play out per hundred similar trials, and the correleation of that to the percentage chance that your hand might be good or improve to be good. Yet another is the odds the pot is laying you, as well as implied odds and reverse implied odds. What's the real cost? All that said, the most important variable is probably your read based upon your feel for the given situation -- which is an unquantifiable intangible.

The situation: $30-$60 limit hold'em at Bellagio in Las Vegas. Three players limp. I peek down to see the J J on the button and raise. Both blinds call, and we take the flop six-handed. The dealer flips up the 9 7 6. I have an overpair, but that sure isn't my dream flop! Everyone checks around to me, and I toss in $30. Three players call, and then a fast and loose player check-raises. The player next to act three-bets, and the action is to me.

It's a tough spot! The board is uniform and suited. Even if my hand is currently the best, the number of two-card combinations to come for my hand to hold up are limited. And by no means is my hand necessarily good right now. If I happen to be beat, the J makes a flush and therefore is likely dead. If someone flopped a straight, catching up with one pair is a mighty tough assignment.

I thought about my best play. Did I want to four-bet, trying to blow out some of the players and increase the chances for my hand to hold up in case it was currently good? Did I want to call and see the turn, and make a determination then? Should I just toss my mitt into the muck?

Two thoughts entered my mind. Would the three callers likely fold to additional bets, and what was the likelihood that my hand was good? I thought about the styles of the callers. The game was being played fast and loosely. The calling players had not shown any propensity to fold hands that they thought had outs. I didn't think I could remove them from the pot by four-betting if they had an out to beat one pair.

Then I thought about the potential range of holdings of my two opponents who had check-raised. The first check-raiser, being fast and loose, easily could have a draw. However, the second check-raiser was a significant winner and seemed to be trying to sit on his chips, play tight poker, and not blow any back. I thought it much more likely that he held a big hand rather than a draw.

Inasmuch as I thought I was likely beat, and my outs if beat were limited, and the fact that if my hand was good, I easily could get outdrawn, I tossed my two red jacks into the muck. Two of the three callers called the three bets, as did the initial check-raiser.

The turn card was the 7, pairing the board. The field checked to the last raiser, who bet and was called by the field. The river was the 3. Once again, the field checked and Mr. Last-Raiser also checked. The first check-raiser showed the 9 8, the second check-raiser showed the 9 8 for the same hand, and the other callers mucked!

Damn! I had folded the best hand and the pot was large. Folding the winner in large pots can be a significant error. But as I said, if you never fold a winner, you are playing way too loosely and losing too many extra bets.

Did I make an error in folding? In hindsight, the results seem to dictate that I did. I reviewed my decisions in my mind. Yes, I had folded a winner, but the scenario that presented itself was not the only scenario that could have existed at the point of my decision. Either of the raisers could have had me beat, or one of the callers (or raisers) could have drawn a better hand than my two jacks. The fact that my hand was good and held up seemed to be an oddity based on the action, number of players, and board texture. That said, the pot was large and worth taking some risks to win. I didn't have to win it every time to show positive expectation. Somewhere in the neighborhood of a 15 percent win rate would be sufficient to show an overall profit.

Did I have that winning percentage rate? All such judgments involve reading opponents' hand ranges with accuracy and are therefore subjective.

Even taking the added time in hindsight to analyze the situation again, I am not sure the play I made was the right one. But when I review my hands after the fact, as long as I think my decision was made with sound logical judgment and with clarity, I don't beat myself up just because the results did not work in my favor.

Folding winners is a natural part of the game, and we shouldn't let it affect us emotionally. All we can do is think about our play, learn from it as best we can, take it in stride, and play the next hand!

Roy Cooke, a Card Player columnist since 1992, has played more than 60,000 hours of pro poker and has been part of the I-poker industry since its beginnings. He plays regularly at Bellagio, Wynn Las Vegas, and The Venetian in Las Vegas. His longtime collaborator, John Bond, is a freelance writer who plays at the Hollywood, Florida, Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino. Their most recent book is How to Think Like a Poker Pro. Please see Roy's real estate ad on this page.