Suited Aces - Part IV

So far in this series, I have examined several example hands in which one of the players had a suited ace and a big pot developed. While all of these examples have been interesting and instructive, I haven't really discussed what chance you have of winning with an A-X suited, and until we cover some math, we can't really discuss strategy. Obviously, this depends on two things. First, we have to specify what the "X" is. There are 12 suited aces, ranging from the heights of A-K down to the lowly A-2. We also have to decide what our opponent's hand is. We can divide the suited aces into three groups of four hands each. The best suited aces are those in which the other card is big - king, queen, jack, or 10. These hands, especially suited A-K and A-Q, are premium hands. The second group contains a medium-sized card - 9, 8, 7, or 6. The third group contains a small card - 5, 4, 3, or 2. With these hands, you are relying primarily on the potential to make a flush or straight.

First, let's look at the chance of beating a random hand with suited aces. Why is this useful, given that our opponents don't play random hands? When no one has entered the pot before us, the players behind us and the blinds have hands that we can consider as random. The following table shows how some suited aces do against a random hand. All winning-percentage calculations in this column include wins plus the appropriate percent for ties (where applicable).



Note that any suited ace is always a favorite over a random hand. This means that in short-stack situations (a low M), you can go all in from the button or the small blind and expect to have the best hand more often than not. With bigger stacks, be more careful with smaller kickers, since you will be called only when your opponent has a reasonable hand. Don't be misled into thinking that it is a favorite over a group of random hands, where the bad hands fold and the good hands play. This means that if you go all in from early position with a hand like A-4 suited, you will probably be called by a better hand, something like A-J or a pair. In the next table, we will see how these suited aces do against A-J offsuit and 7-7. This table was calculated with the assumption that both the jack and the sevens aren't in the same suit as the suited ace.



There's nothing too surprising here. When you and your opponent both have an ace, the bigger kicker is a favorite. Big kickers are big favorites over slightly smaller ones. Being suited doesn't help you much. However, if both you and your opponent have small kickers, there will be a lot of split pots, and the kickers become less important. For example, if you have A-4 suited and he has A-5 offsuit, you'll split about 41 percent of the time.

In most situations, however, your opponent won't have a random hand, but you also won't be unable to diagnose his exact hand. When he acts ahead of you, either by limping or raising, you may be able to come up with a pretty accurate estimate of the range of hands he would play in this situation. So, the last thing we need to look at is how these suited aces do against some ranges of hands.



What does all of this mean? It means that suited aces, especially the ones with lower kickers, don't do very well against players who are likely to have great starting hands. As your opponent's range of starting hands becomes more liberal and as your kicker becomes better, your winning chances increase. In the best cases, the suited ace is around a 2-1 favorite.

Don't try to memorize these tables, but try to become familiar with them. The best players have an amazing sense of what types of hands their opponents are likely to be holding, and how their hand matches up against that range. I will be more specific about applying these numbers in actual situations. I also will try to enlighten you on the delicate subject of when you should forget math and go with your gut.

Steve "Zee" Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at many major tournaments and playing on Full Tilt, as one of its pros. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City - Nice Guy Eddie's on Houston and Doc Holliday's on 9th Street.