Detecting a Bluff

There are three main elements that play a role in detecting bluffs: "tells," knowledge of the opponent, and recognizing the type of situation it is. I will discuss all three of these elements.



Tells is the poker term for mannerisms of the opponent, physical clues that may portray his state of mind and the meaning of his bet. You cannot use tells when playing poker online. The only "mannerism" that you are able to observe is the length of time taken to make a play. However, that time may be the result of playing in multiple games. The opponent may need to make a play quickly in order to move along and concentrate on a situation at another table, or may be delayed in acting because he is already embroiled in a situation. There are other distractions affecting tempo that can be at work, as well: a phone call, a doorbell, a child, or a spouse.



In a live game, a tell can strongly affect your decision. I am not one to do much talking at the table when in a hand. However, some of my students who are fine poker players and find themselves confronted with a big bet like to try engaging the opponent in conversation. What surprises me is that they are successful in getting the opponent to start talking! And if the opponent gets to talking, he often gives the show away – especially if he is not bluffing. I of course see this kind of talking to the bettor, and see it getting replies. Most of the time, I can get a strong feeling one way or the other, and formulate an opinion on how a bet should be answered. So, my advice is to get the opponent talking when he bets, and keep your mouth shut when you bet.



I make a lot of judgments based on the tempo of the opponent. Many opponents, when holding a strong hand, give a "courtesy hesitation," taking five or 10 seconds before acting even when they know what they are going to do. If you see such a person act without a pause and get caught bluffing, this is a very worthwhile piece of information that can be stored away for future use. To interpret tempo or mannerisms reliably, it is very helpful to know something about the opponent, rather than interpret an action in a certain way regardless of who does it. For example, if you start to bet and your opponent reaches for his chips before you have put anything into the pot yet, most of the time he is trying to stop you from betting or induce the wager of a smaller amount. However, he still may give you a crying call. Also, a newcomer to poker might not even realize that you have an option to stop your wager and may simply be preparing to act. So, the thing to remember is that a read on an opponent is far more reliable if you already have something to compare it with when that same player was involved in a similar situation.



The psychology of poker is such that a player is much more likely to bluff when he is losing. A player who is down will be looking to get even, and is often in a hurry to do so. The result is that he plays more hands, and thus is more likely to get into a bad spot in which the only way to win is to use muscle. He is also more willing to put chips at risk by making a big bluff. The possible outcomes of being twice as deep in the hole or getting even are not viewed as being an equal degree of swing.

Getting even is a huge achievement, and going from stuck to stuck more is not as horrible as getting even is good. In making a decision of whether or not to call a possible bluff, an important consideration is whether the opponent is stuck or in front.



I think the number-one thing that will enable you to catch bluffs (and avoid calling big bets when the opponent has a monster hand) is to realize that a player who has a decent hand is not likely to run a big bluff. It is both good poker and a natural human inclination to simply show down a hand, rather than overstate its value in an effort to portray a monster. Bluffs are made mainly by busted draws. Here are a couple of hands that illustrate this principle:



You pick up A-K suited in late position and an early-position player calls the $25 big blind. You raise to $100 and the limper is your only caller. The flop comes K-9-3 rainbow, and he checks. You bet $175 and he calls. The turn is a deuce of the fourth suit, he checks, and you bet $400. He calls. On the river, a 7 comes, and he bets $1,200 at you. What should you do? Against a sane opponent, your A-K is no good. If he had something like A-Q or A-J, he would check again and then guess what to do if you bet. Of course, an opponent who is a rookie player is capable of making a crazy play in any situation, especially in a low-stakes game – but this is not a low-stakes game. In actuality, I folded here, and my opponent told me later that he had flopped a set. I believe that was the truth. I was fortunate that there had not been a flush draw on the flop, as it would have been much harder to fold. If you run into a big bet in a situation in which there was no draw on the flop, you are likely to be facing a strong hand rather than a bluff.



Here is a situation in which there was a draw on the flop. I was playing in a $5-$10 blinds online cash game several years ago. I held K-Q on the button in an unraised four-handed pot. The flop came K-X-X with two diamonds. The under-the-gun limper bet $20, which I called. The next card did not look like much, and he bet $40. I called again. The river was a lowly offsuit deuce that looked like a complete blank. To my surprise, my opponent bet $150. It seemed to me that if he had flopped a big hand, he would have been betting a greater amount earlier to protect his hand, rather than letting loose with a blast on the end. I called. Unsurprisingly, my opponent had been betting the nut-flush draw and didn't hit it.



Bob Ciaffone has authored four poker books, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Poker. All can be ordered from Card Player. Ciaffone is available for poker lessons: e-mail [email protected]. His website is www.pokercoach.us, where you can get his rulebook, Robert's Rules of Poker, for free. Bob also has a website called www.fairlawsonpoker.org.