The So-Called Coin Flip

Let us consider the so-called "coin flip" confrontation of overcards versus a pocket pair in no limit hold'em. Most players and even TV commentators call, say, 8-8 versus A-K "a coin flip." While I'm not fussy about precise numbers - in most situations, I find a thumbnail grab more useful than exact odds - I think it's misleading to imply that this is a true fifty-fifty proposition, and that those inclined to gamble would happily take either side of the action. In fact, the pocket pair is normally at least a 52 percent-48 percent favorite over any two overcards. Sometimes, as in the case of Q-Q versus A-K offsuit, the edge is much higher, 57 percent-43 percent. While that may be in the neighborhood of a coin flip (if you define neighborhood loosely enough), it's not a neighborhood you'll find profitable if you're consistently on the wrong end of the odds.

Does this mean that you should always make a big move with pocket pairs, knowing that you have a measurable edge against overcards? Obviously not, since overcards aren't the only sort of hand out there against you. There also might be overpairs, and if you run into a bigger pocket pair, you're on the order of a 4-to-1 underdog, and facing an uphill climb.

But you do want to have in your arsenal the ability to make big bets with pocket pairs, so do two things to minimize your exposure to bad outcomes against overpairs. First, naturally, avoid making big moves with smaller pairs. Even pocket eights face six dominating pocket pairs; pocket deuces face 12. The less headroom you leave in the deck, the better your chances are of getting called by the overcards you seek (or better still, an underpair) and not the overpairs you fear. Second, make your big moves with pocket pairs from late position, for there are fewer hands left to act after you, and therefore fewer chances of running into a dominating pair. Acting late also increases your likelihood of winning without a fight, and those fold-outs give your big moves with pocket pairs a lot of extra equity.

If I play small pairs at all, I play them as a drawing hand, hoping to flop a set and trap someone for all of his chips. Just because 4-4 is a theoretical favorite against some hypothetical A-K or A-Q, it doesn't give me (or you) license to go nuts. Yet, we see all kinds of players, especially those new to the game, getting terribly frisky with these hands - moving all in from under the gun with small pairs and hoping for the magical power of the "coin flip" to see them through to victory. This is hazardous in a cash game, where you can at least reload if it goes wrong. In tournaments, it's suicide, unless you're confident that everyone will fold - but then you're on a pure steal, in which case it really doesn't matter whether your cards are high or low, paired or unpaired, red, black, blue, silver, or green.

Pocket pairs, then, play best for big bets when they're not early and not small. Otherwise, play them to hit a set, or don't even play them at all. (Note: Some players find laughable the notion of ever folding a pocket pair. These players are known, colloquially, as losers.)

Now let's flip over to the other side of the confrontation and see how overcards perform.

One thing overcards have going for them is that they're rarely badly dominated like pairs can be. The only time a hand like A-K is in serious trouble, for instance, is when it finds itself up against A-A or K-K, in which case the A-K figures to lose seven to nine times out of 10, depending on suit distribution. But it's unlikely that your opponent has one of these hands, especially since you hold an ace and a king yourself. Therefore, when you bet big with A-K, your likeliest worst-case scenario is being a slight underdog against lower pocket pairs. Against an A-X or two unpaired undercards, of course, you're a big favorite.

This fact gives you a little room to get creative with your A-K holdings. Let's say that you're playing in a no-limit hold'em game with $2-$5 blinds, and three players have limped in before the action gets to you. You have $100 in your stack. If you push all in and get one caller, you'll be betting $100 to win around $120. The dead-money overlay gives you proper odds just in case you get called by a pocket pair from queens on down, plus extra equity from the times that no one cares to contest.

Of course, you have to know your foes. In today's wild and woolly low buy-in no-limit games, people will make all sorts of - I don't want to call them stupid, so let's call them imaginative - plays. Get two callers in this situation and you're usually slightly worse than a 3-2 favorite to win. With the pot offering you a 2-to-1 return on your investment, you're still on the right side of the odds - but you'll nevertheless go broke two times out of five! It's no fun to go broke, especially if the agony of defeat can put you on tilt and cause you to start hemorrhaging at the wallet.

So, you have to know your foes. You have to know that your big raise is going to get either one caller or no callers (remembering that if they all fold, you don't have to get lucky at all). Critically, you also have to know yourself: Can you make high-risk, high-reward moves, encounter adverse outcomes, and still stay on your game? If so, go ahead and play big slick strongly, confident that the hand is rarely in terrible shape to start. If not, snug up your starting requirements and look for opportunities to drive pure premium hands, or to trap when the cost is low and the potential profit is high. Above all, don't just blindly and blithely accept every coin flip that comes your way. Look for better ways and means to get your money in.

John Vorhaus is the author of the Killer Poker book series and the new poker novel Under the Gun, in bookstores now. He resides in cyberspace at vorza.com, and blogs the world from somnifer.typepad.com. John Vorhaus' photo: Gerard Brewer.