Believe What They Do, Not What They Say

In a recent column, I discussed the fact that talking is part of poker. You can and should say anything (with a few exceptions) that will cause your opponents to make mistakes or play poorly. They will likewise do the same to you. When a player makes a comment, it is a voluntary action. He has chosen to say something. Therefore, it is quite possible that this statement is designed to mislead. He may try to do so by lying or by telling the truth. It might be an attempt at confusing you by creating a distraction or an illusion. Even if you “initiate contact” by asking a question, your opponent still chooses whether or not to answer and how to respond, and, as usual, this is designed to create errors. Deciphering the meaning of your opponent’s statements is more an art than a science. Once, my opponent moved all in, and while I was thinking, he told me, “If you call, I’ll show you the nuts, but if you fold, I’ll show you a bluff.” What did he have? I don’t really know. I folded, and he didn’t show me anything. I assumed this meant that he hadn’t been bluffing, but you always wonder. Perhaps his statement worked so well that he wanted to use it again later.

Given that your opponent’s statements are voluntary and designed to lead you astray, it is often better to focus on behaviors that are involuntary and hard to control. Famous dancer Martha Graham once said, “Movement never lies. It is a barometer telling the state of the soul’s weather to all who can read it.” Your opponent doesn’t have to say anything. His body position and movements are not so much under his control. He has to look somewhere. He must have his hands somewhere, and in a specific position. He must have a posture of some kind, and his legs and feet must be somewhere. For most players, it is easy to play for a long time without saying anything. It is impossible to play for a long time without doing anything. A player has to pick up his cards, look at them, and put them somewhere if he is playing. Then, he has to reach for some chips and get them into the pot. He has to breathe. Players are not machines. Your opponents will not perform all of these actions in an identical fashion every time. The differences in the ways that an opponent performs these routine chores may be your best guide to what he has.

There are several young online specialists who are incredibly good at playing a game that is firmly rooted in probabilities or the mathematics of poker, but can be modified just enough to capitalize on the weaknesses of any given opponent. They are capable of doing this at a number of tables simultaneously. Part of their efficiency comes from pre-folding hands they don’t intend to play, so that they can focus on the hands they are playing. Some of them decide to try live games, using the same techniques. Unfortunately for them, this is not good. It quickly becomes clear to any experienced player when these players have mentally pushed the “pre-fold” button and when they are ready to play. Several years ago in one of the early World Series of Poker hold’em events, I was seated to the right of such a player. He played his hands well. His decisions seemed logical and accurate, but he would look at his cards as soon as they were dealt to him. He generally held them in his right hand, ready to shove them into the muck. When he intended to play, however, he transferred them to his left hand. His right hand started to sort out chips for a call or a raise.

Right after the first break, an interesting hand occurred. I was in the cutoff and he was on the button. Someone raised from early position, one player called, and everyone else folded up to me. I looked at my cards and found two aces. I was about to reraise when I noticed that this young man had shifted his cards to his left hand. He was playing. His right hand seemed to be reaching for his big chips. He was probably going to reraise. I flat-called. My observation paid off. He reraised, both the initial raiser and the other player called, and I moved all in. He called like a shot, and the others folded. He turned over two jacks, and was amazed to see my aces. He had thought there was no way that I could have had aces without reraising immediately. He would have been correct, except for the fact that I knew what he would do.

In my next column, I will cover some more things to look for. I will also give you an exercise for developing your observational ability. The thing to take away from this column is the fact that you should believe what they do, not what they say.

Steve “Zee” Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at many major tournaments and playing on Full Tilt, as one of its pros. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A — Nice Guy Eddie’s at Houston and Doc Holliday’s at 9th Street — in New York City.