World Series of Poker Blues

Several years ago, I wrote about the biggest mistake that I see players make in the World Series of Poker main event — going broke with A-K. In many online tournaments, going broke with A-K after the first few levels is perfectly fine. But in the WSOP main event, when you start out with 150 big blinds, losing a lot of chips with A-K is a big mistake unless you hit a monster board.

2010 was my year of going broke with A-K (and to some extent, A-Q), although it happened over a series of hands, rather than losing it all in just one hand. On day 1, I increased my stack from 30,000 to 95,000, despite being card-dead practically the entire day. On day 2, the deck slapped me over the head, enabling me to increase my stack to 260,000, putting me in the top 35 of the tournament. I had a big stack, was playing great, and thought I would cruise into the money unless I ran into several coolers. Well, I didn’t make the money, but it wasn’t due to coolers. It was a long, slow demise, during which I never lost more than 35,000 in chips on one hand until my last hand, when I had less than 20 big blinds.

Beginning of day 3 — 256,000: I lose a race with 10-10 versus A-Q, and drop 30,000.
226,000: I raise with A-Q and the next player calls. The flop comes Q-X-X with two clubs. I play it trickily, and we both check. The turn is a king. I check, my opponent bets, and I call. The river is a blank. I check, my opponent bets, and I call. He shows K-Q. Knowing what I know now about this opponent, I wouldn’t have called the river, but it was early in the day, and it was a tough decision.

206,000: I raise from middle position with A-K. The big blind calls. The flop is K-X-X. Again, I slow-play, as we both check. The turn is a rag, putting two diamonds on the board. I get check-raised, and call. The river is the third diamond. The big blind bets, I call, and he shows a flush with Q-2 suited. If I bet the flop, I win the hand. But, on the other hand, by checking, I get my opponent to put in a lot of chips on the turn as a big dog. I lose 25,000.

180,000: I raise with A-K from the hijack seat and the big blind calls. The flop is K-J-4. I bet, and he calls. The turn is a 10. We both check. The river is a 4. The big blind bets, and I make another crying call and am beat by 8-4. I lose another 25,000.

155,000: The button raises, and I reraise from the small blind with A-K. The flop is J-J-X. Yuck. We both check. The turn is a blank. I check and fold to a bet. In retrospect, I was probably on tilt and feeling gun-shy, and should have bet out on the flop or the turn. I lose 11,000.

140,000: I three-bet with 10-9 against a loose raiser. The button and the big blind call; oops! Four players see the flop of Q-8-X. We all check. The turn is a blank and the big blind bets. I fold, and he ends up showing Q-Q. I lose 10,000.
130,000: I check-raise a J-5-4 board with A-Q. My opponent instantly pushes all in. I lose another 10,000.

120,000: I raise with A-8 from middle position. The big blind calls. The flop comes K-8-3. I feel that my opponent hit something, and check. The turn is a rag. Again, we both check. The river is an ace. The big blind bets, and I make another crying call. My opponent shows A-K, and I lose 25,000 more.

95,000: I dip down a little more, and then win with 7-6 suited against a short stack with A-8, and end my day at 102,000.

Day 4 — 102,000: I raise from the button with A-K to 6,000 (1,200-2,400 blinds). The small blind calls. The flop is K-10-8. We both check. The turn is a 6. The small blind bets 9,000, and I call. The river is a 7. My opponent bets 11,000, and I make another crying call. He shows 10-10.

70,000: I get blinded down to 53,000, and three-bet a loose button raiser with Q-J suited and lose to K-K. Tourney over.

Did I play all of these hands perfectly? No. But at the same time, I likely would have been out of the tournament a lot earlier if I had played top pair, top kicker more aggressively. For certain, on day 4 with A-K on the button and the K-10-8 flop, I would have gone broke if I had bet the flop.

In deep-stack tournaments, top pair and overpairs are basically two-bet hands. By that I mean that you can’t really expect to earn more than two bets post-flop against a worse hand. If three bets go into the pot, you are probably the dog. For example, if you bet the flop, turn, and river and get called, you’ll frequently be up against two pair or better (there are some exceptions on a dry board). If you bet the flop, get raised, and call a turn bet, you’ll frequently be up against a better hand.

So, what does this mean? If you can expect to win only two bets in a typical deep-stack situation, you need to plan accordingly. There are basically three betting lines:

1. Bet the flop, check the turn, and bet the river.
2. Check the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river.
3. Bet the flop, bet the turn, and check the river.

The third option does the best job of protecting your hand, but it also shows a lot of strength, such that medium-strength hands may not call a second bet (this option does give you the opportunity to pick up a third bet on the river if you are fairly confident that you have your opponent beat on a dry board). The advantage of checking the flop or turn is that you’ll get a lot of crying calls on the river with second-best hands. On day 2, that is exactly what happened, as I collected a lot of extra bets against second-best hands that might have folded to a more aggressive line. On days 3 and 4, unfortunately, I just kept running into better hands. But at the same time, I never lost a lot of chips on any single hand, which kept me alive in the tournament.

When you flop top pair in a deep-stack tournament, you generally should choose a line with the goal of winning two bets, while at the same time protecting yourself when behind. Just don’t run like I did. ♠

Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, “Publishing Today’s Best Poker Books.” Dimat recently released Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em by Ed Miller, Matt Flynn, and Sunny Mehta, as well as Peak Performance Poker by Travis Steffen. Dimat publications are available at Amazon and pokerbooks.InternetTexasHoldem.com.